Early 2024 NBA Free-Agency Storylines and Landing Spots for Top Unrestricted FAs

The 2023-24 NBA season is still in its infancy, but trade season unofficially starts in just over a month (December 15). Beyond player and team performance—and trying to bolster that playoff/tanking run—the trade market is driven by the following summer's free agency.

Can a team lure another team's star? Will that take a tremendous amount of cap room? Which teams are facing luxury taxes and apron penalties that all but require them to cut payroll? Do they need to make trades before the Feb. 8 deadline?

For a player, the hunt may be for an extension. What's the right number to skip free agency altogether? Are they happy where they are, or is it time for relocation?

If the relationship is souring, extension talks have stalled, or the team is just going in a different direction, then where can the player go to get paid? Is it time to follow in the footsteps of Damian Lillard and James Harden and request a trade instead of waiting for the free-agent market to open in July?

Now is the time to start doing the initial legwork. Here, we've mapped out the best landing spots for the NBA's top unrestricted free agents in 2024.

Guidelines

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey

The league's current salary-cap projection for the 2024-25 season is $142 million, with a luxury-tax line of roughly $172.6 million. The new collective bargaining agreement doesn't allow the cap to jump by more than 10 percent (no higher than $149.6 million in 2024-25), but it can't fall year-to-year, either. In the worst-case scenario, the cap would stay flat at $136 million.

The next spending thresholds are the two aprons (projected to be $179.9 million and $190.8 million). While the first apron introduces some team-building restrictions, the harsh penalties for exceeding the second apron will keep most teams below that figure.

Maximum salaries should range from $35.5 million to $49.7 million, depending on the exact salary cap figure and the players' years of service. For teams that don't have cap room, the most significant spending tool is the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE) at an estimated $13 million. Teams above the first apron won't even have that, and for the top free agents, the NTMLE is a non-starter.

That's undoubtedly why Harden felt compelled to relocate from the Philadelphia 76ers to a franchise likely to use his Bird rights this summer to pay him a lucrative contract without needing to go under the salary cap.

Free agents hoping to move elsewhere will need to find a team with enough spending power, which may not be easy. Using very early projections (with many variables like draft position, options, cap holds, non-guarantees, trades, etc.), the following teams could be buyers this offseason—some specifically because they're losing free agents on this list:

• $20-29 million: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards
• $30-35 million: Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers
• $40-44 million: Utah Jazz
• $45-55 million: Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers
• $60 million: Detroit Pistons
• $70-75 million: L.A. Clippers, Toronto Raptors

Many listed won't be near that space if they keep their players. The rest will need to make moves to open cap space to make an offer well above the NTMLE.

Finally, restricted free agents like Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley and many others were omitted. We'll explore their complicated scenarios on another day.

Harden Back to Clippers?

Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

PLAYA VISTA, CA - NOVEMBER 02: James Harden #1 of the LA Clippers speaks to the media during a press conference at Honey Training Center on November 02, 2023 in Playa Vista, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

James Harden made it clear this offseason that he was done with the Philadelphia 76ers and that he wanted to play for the Los Angeles Clippers. It's difficult to imagine that he's a short-term rental. He needs the Clippers, and they need a headliner for the new arena opening in Inglewood next year.

Will they max him out? Maybe not, but keeping him happy is in the team's best interest. Kyrie Irving, who was in a similar situation with the Dallas Mavericks this summer, re-signed for $37.0 million in 2023-24—well below the $47.6 million max available to him.

Salary: $35.6 million

Extension Eligibility: None

Prediction: Back with the Clippers at a $40-49.7 million starting salary

Best Alternative: Not an obvious one

Kawhi Leonard, Always a Difficult Read

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 01: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Los Angeles Clippers stands on court during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena on November 01, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

Kawhi Leonard has struggled to stay healthy over the years, but he's still one of the league's best players when his body is right. The Los Angeles Clippers may be positioning James Harden as the new face of their franchise, alleviating some of that pressure from Leonard.

Among all of the players in the NBA, Leonard may be the toughest to read. The best guess is that he declines his $48.8 million player option and signs an extension with the Clippers before free agency. But he'll do what he thinks is best for him, and that may be testing unrestricted free agency, even if he just re-signs with the Clippers.

Salary: $45.6 million ($48.8 million player option for 2024-25)

Extension Eligibility: Up to $49.7 million starting salary (through June 30)

Prediction: Extension before July at a $40-49.7 million starting salary

Best Alternative(s): 76ers, Raptors, Pistons, Magic, Jazz

George Will Have Suitors

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 01: Paul George #13 of the Los Angeles Clippers warms up prior to the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena on November 01, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

Paul George is still an incredible scorer with great size and the willingness to defend. The Los Angeles Clippers might be the one team willing to run back their expensive core, regardless of the associated financial penalties.

The Clippers have some time to see how Harden, Leonard and George fit together, but they're optimistic. We'll pencil in George returning as well, although he could be a prime target for the Philadelphia 76ers either via trade or free agency.

Salary: $45.6 million ($48.8 million player option for 2024-25)

Extension Eligibility: Up to $49.7 million starting salary (through June 30)

Prediction: Extension before July at a $40-49.7 million starting salary

Best Alternative(s): 76ers, Raptors, Pistons, Magic, Jazz

LeBron James, Opting in?

Rich Storry/Getty Images

ORLANDO, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 04: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers warms up prior to a game against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center on November 04, 2023 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

LeBron James has a $51.4 million player option with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2024-25. He flirted with retirement this past offseason, but it's difficult to imagine James turning down that type of money, especially since no other team can pay him that much.

If/when he opts in, the Lakers will drop completely off the list of cap-space teams.

Salary: $47.6 million ($51.4 million player option for 2024-25)

Extension Eligibility: None

Prediction: Back with the Lakers on his option

Best Alternative: Not an obvious one

Do the Warriors Keep Klay Thompson?

Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 01: Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors drives to the basket against Malik Monk #0 of the Sacramento Kings in the fourth quarter at Chase Center on November 01, 2023 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)

Stephen Curry playing without Klay Thompson alongside him doesn't feel right. During the years that Thompson was sidelined with severe leg injuries, the Golden State Warriors weren't very good.

Extension negotiations between Thompson and the Warriors "have stalled over the salary and length" of a new deal, according to Shams Charania and Anthony Slater of The Athletic. The Warriors may be reluctant to commit to Thompson because of the punitive rules regarding the second apron, which could cause Thompson to explore other avenues.

That could lead to Golden State getting out of Chris Paul's final year at $30 million. The franchise has been paying heavy luxury taxes and may not want to overcommit to the strict second-apron penalties.

Salary: $43.2 million

Extension Eligibility: Up to $49.7 million starting salary (through June 30)

Prediction: Extension before July at a $25-35 million starting salary

Best Alternative(s): 76ers, Raptors, Pistons, Magic, Jazz, Rockets, etc.

A New Home for Siakam?

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 02: Pascal Siakam #43 of the Toronto Raptors looks on during the second quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center on November 02, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Pascal Siakam is the first player on this list who that seems likely to move. Whether the Toronto Raptors trade him or just let him walk in free agency (like Fred VanVleet before him) remains to be seen.

He can undoubtedly extend, and that shouldn't be discounted as a real possibility. But Siakam might not return to Toronto, and he'll have a list of suitors if that's the case.

Salary: $37.9 million

Extension Eligibility: Up to $42.6 million starting salary (through June 30)

Prediction: Trade before the deadline to the team he ultimately re-signs with—perhaps the 76ers or Pacers (in the $30-37.9 million starting salary range)

Best Alternative(s): Raptors, Pistons, Spurs

Anunoby Also Moving On?

Mark Blinch/Getty Images

TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 30: O.G. Anunoby #3 of the Toronto Raptors look so against the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on October 30, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

Unlike Pascal Siakam, who is roughly seven years older than Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby may still fit with the Raptors' timeline. Anunoby, 26, is closer in age to the 22-year-old Barnes.

But while an extension is realistic for Siakam—it's the likely result if he ends up sticking in Toronto—Anunoby may want more than the Raptors can offer him in an extension (four years, roughly $117 million). And even if they want him back, there's no guarantee that Anunoby will choose to re-sign with them. He's the youngest player on this list, which may make him the most widely sought-out free agent available.

If that's how things are trending for Toronto, Anunoby could be dealt before the deadline. Assuming he's seeking more than what the Raptors can offer him in an extension, any team trading for him may seek an understanding that Anunoby will re-sign with them, even if that's not legal under NBA rules.

Salary: $18.6 million ($19.9 million player option for 2024-25)

Extension Eligibility: Up to $26.1 million starting salary (through June 30)

Prediction: Trade before the deadline to the team he ultimately re-signs with—perhaps the 76ers or Pacers ($27-32 million starting salary range)

Best Alternative(s): Raptors, Spurs, Jazz, etc.

DeRozan Relocating?

Justin Tafoya/Getty Images

DENVER, COLORADO - NOVEMBER 4: DeMar DeRozan #11 of the Chicago Bulls walks off the court in the second half against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on November 4, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Justin Tafoya/Getty Images)

The Chicago Bulls haven't lived up to their own expectations. Reinvesting in DeMar DeRozan, who will be 35 before the start of next season, doesn't seem wise.

Chicago has the means to give him an extension, and that's not entirely out of the question. But the Bulls would probably do so with the intention of eventually trading him.

DeRozan could land with a contender such as the Los Angeles Lakers or Philadelphia 76ers by the trade deadline. As far as free agency, he could be a target for the Sixers or Houston Rockets, but he's at an age where it may be difficult for him to find a sizable contract.

Salary: $28.6 million

Extension Eligibility: Up to $40 million starting salary (through June 30)

Prediction: Trade before the deadline to the team he ultimately re-signs with—perhaps the 76ers or Lakers ($20-25 million starting salary range)

Best Alternative(s): Bulls, Rockets

Jrue Holiday Sticking in Boston

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 04: Jrue Holiday #4 of the Boston Celtics passes the ball during the third quarter of the game against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on November 04, 2023 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

The Boston Celtics didn't trade for Jrue Holiday to lose him in free agency. His player option is high enough that he may just choose to opt in—or with a rule change in the new collective bargaining agreement, he could opt out and re-sign at a lower starting figure if a multi-year deal makes that worthwhile.

Salary: $35.0-40.3 million ($37.4-44.1 million player option for 2024-25)

Extension Eligibility: Up to $49.7 million starting salary (through June 30)

Prediction: He opts out and extends at a $30 million starting salary, similar to what Chris Paul did with the Phoenix Suns in 2021.

Best Alternative(s): Sixers, but it would take an early commitment for Holiday to opt out of his final year. The Celtics are also limited in how much they can offer him in an extension until late March.

Oubre Breaking Out?

David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 2: Kelly Oubre Jr. looks on during the game against the Toronto Raptors on November 2, 2023 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

Kelly Oubre Jr. averaged over 20 points per game last season for the Charlotte Hornets, so his performance in Philadelphia shouldn't be a surprise. Still, several NBA executives remain skeptical that he'll maintain this high level of effectiveness with the 76ers.

Regardless, he's on a one-year, veteran-minimum contract that can't be extended. If the Sixers want to bring him back, that will probably take some of their precious cap space.

Salary: $2.9 million

Extension Eligibility: None

Prediction: Sixers pay to keep Oubre on a raise to the $18-22 million range, assuming he continues to play well throughout the year.

Best Alternative(s): Houston

Honorable Mention

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Nets center Nic Claxton

The Nets cannot extend Nic Claxton, who may be the best young free agent big man on the market. He's been working through an ankle injury but may displace someone in the top 10 before too long.

Other free agents to keep an eye on include Buddy Hield, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (player option), Bruce Brown (team option), Tobias Harris, Jonas Valančiūnas, D'Angelo Russell (player option), Mike Conley, De'Anthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Malk Monk, Tyus Jones and Gary Trent Jr.

Email Eric Pincus at [e-mail] and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.