Bleacher Report's Expert Week 9 NFL Picks
Bleacher Report's NFL experts bounced back from a rough Week 7 with their best slate, going 13-3 and 11-5 straight up and against the spread, respectively. We're back in the green, but our crew has a tough task ahead with nine out of 14 Week 9 spreads of three points or fewer.
Will our group stay hot as we head into November?
B/R's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, had to make some tough decisions with their Week 9 picks. Several games came down to a final vote for the consensus pick.
When the dust settled, our crew only sided with two underdogs ATS and SU, but in many cases, the expert who provided analysis provided good reasons to oppose the majority choice.
Before we dive into picks for Week 9, check out the ATS and SU standings through Week 8 with last week's records in parentheses.
ATS Standings
1. Davenport: 67-53-2 (12-4)
2. Gagnon: 66-54-2 (8-8)
T-3. Hanford: 63-57-2 (9-7)
T-3. Moton: 63-57-2 (11-5)
T-5. Knox: 59-61-2 (9-7)
T-5 Sobleski: 59-61-2 (8-8)
7. O'Donnell: 55-65-2 (7-9)
Consensus picks: 63-57-2 (11-5)
SU Standings
T-1. Hanford 80-42 (12-4)
T-1. Moton: 80-42 (13-3)
T-3. Davenport: 74-48 (14-2)
T-3 Knox: 74-48 (11-5)
T-5. Gagnon: 73-49) (10-6)
T-5. Sobleski: 73-49 (12-4)
7. O'Donnell: 72-40 (9-7)
Consensus picks: 75-47 (13-3)
Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 1, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
1 of 14
DraftKings Line: Pittsburgh -3
Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis has the NFL world buzzing about his starting debut. Last week, he threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons.
Now, Levis has a tougher test on a short week in Pittsburgh against a defense that has a knack for forcing turnovers. For Hanford, those factors weighed heavily in his decision to side with the Steelers.
"This should be an ugly game from both offenses. The Steelers will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick in the secondary, but this is still a defense that ranks second in the NFL in takeaways with 15, still has T.J. Watt and will be getting Cameron Heyward back from injury. On the other side, the Titans defense has been strong in the red zone and has only given up seven passing touchdowns this year, so things aren't likely to get any better this week for a banged-up Kenny Pickett.
"Will Levis proved a lot of doubters wrong in his Week 8 debut, but it should be tougher sledding for the rookie QB on Thursday on a short week. Mike Tomlin has never lost to Mike Vrabel, and the Steelers have won five straight in prime time. It's not going to be pretty, and I wouldn't expect anyone to enjoy watching it, but I like Pittsburgh's defense to grind out a win at home."
Predictions
Davenport: Steelers
Gagnon: Titans
Hanford: Steelers
Knox: Titans
Moton: Steelers
O'Donnell: Steelers
Sobleski: Titans
ATS Consensus: Steelers -3
SU Consensus: Steelers
Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Titans 20
Miami Dolphins (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
2 of 14
DK Line: Kansas City -2
The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Frankfurt Stadium in Germany for their matchup.
Oddsmakers made a few of us scratch our heads with this point spread because the Dolphins have struggled against opponents with winning records, but O'Donnell explained how the elements and Tyreek Hill's extra motivation to beat his former team could factor into the outcome.
O'Donnell took the Dolphins to win outright in what would be a signature win for their season.
"Throw out almost everything heading into this game due to it being played in Germany, and the line largely represents this. The Chiefs, on paper, are a more complete team despite coming off a loss to the Broncos, while the Dolphins have struggled against teams with winning records—0-2 by double digits—and the line represents this as well. I'm taking Miami mostly due to the Tyreek Hill revenge game factor. Since changing teams, he's yet to play against his former squad.
"Hill nearly leads the league in every major receiving category (he has three fewer targets and receptions than leader Stefon Diggs in those categories) and the Chiefs will absolutely try to take him away. This will open things up for Miami elsewhere.
"Kansas City has scored 30-plus only twice this season (home vs. Chicago and home vs. the Chargers) and both teams are in the bottom third of the league in scoring defense.
"Overseas games usually have an element of ugliness to them, and while I respect the talent and performance KC's defense has put on display this season, giving up only 16.1 points per game, I'm taking the better offense here. The Chiefs can avenge this loss in the postseason when it matters more."
Predictions
Davenport: Dolphins
Gagnon: Chiefs
Hanford: Chiefs
Knox: Dolphins
Moton: Chiefs
O'Donnell: Dolphins
Sobleski: Dolphins
ATS Consensus: Dolphins +2
SU Consensus: Dolphins
Score Prediction: Dolphins 28, Chiefs 27
Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
3 of 14
DK Line: Baltimore -5.5
This matchup features a couple of division leaders who will try to extend winning streaks.
The Seattle Seahawks have won back-to-back games despite their sloppy turnover-ridden performances, and the Baltimore Ravens have averaged 31 points per game during their three-game winning streak.
This season, the Seahawks are 1-1 ATS in 1 p.m. ET games, winning outright as a 5.5-point underdog against the Detroit Lions in Week 2 and then failing to cover a 2.5-point spread in a Week 6 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Knox had the final call for this split decision, and he sided with the Ravens, who have played a cleaner style of football with fewer turnovers and more points scored in recent weeks.
"This one's very close for me, and if the line was just a tick higher, I'd have to back Seattle. The Seahawks defense has looked much better than last year's edition, and the tandem of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet can find room against a Baltimore defense surrendering 4.1 yards per carry.
"However, Geno Smith has not been better than he was a year ago, and with six turnovers in his last three games, it's hard to trust him against a very stingy Ravens pass defense. It took a couple of late breaks for Seattle to survive Cleveland at home last week. In Baltimore, I'll take the Ravens by six."
Predictions
Davenport: Ravens
Gagnon: Ravens
Hanford: Seahawks
Knox: Ravens
Moton: Seahawks
O'Donnell: Ravens
Sobleski: Seahawks
ATS Consensus: Ravens -5.5
SU Consensus: Ravens
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Seahawks 21
Minnesota Vikings (4-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
4 of 14
DK Line: Atlanta -4.5
On Tuesday, the Minnesota Vikings acquired seven-year veteran quarterback Joshua Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals, but they'll prepare rookie Jaren Hall to start against the Atlanta Falcons.
Obviously, Dobbs needs time to learn the Vikings' playbook, so it makes sense for Minnesota to start Hall, who's been with the team since the offseason. The rookie signal-caller has a tough matchup with the Falcons' eighth-ranked pass defense.
Yes, Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis threw for 238 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons last week, but the Kentucky product came into the NFL as a far more promising prospect than Hall, a fifth-round pick out of BYU.
Our crew unanimously sided with the Falcons, and Moton isn't worried about Atlanta's change at quarterback.
"The Falcons will start Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder, which is a move that may help them string together some wins starting with the Vikings on Sunday," Moton said.
"Between Weeks 6 and 7, Ridder turned the ball over six times with three interceptions and three fumbles. Heinicke doesn't have Ridder's upside, but he'll protect the football and should be able to make timely throws to wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts while running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier grind out yards on the ground.
"Hall won't have the same rookie success as Levis did last week. The Falcons defense bounces back with a couple of turnovers and pulls away from the Vikings to win comfortably."
Predictions
Davenport: Falcons
Gagnon: Falcons
Hanford: Falcons
Knox: Falcons
Moton: Falcons
O'Donnell: Falcons
Sobleski: Falcons
ATS Consensus: Falcons -4.5
SU Consensus: Falcons
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Vikings 16
Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (2-5)
5 of 14
DK Line: Green Bay -2.5
Last week, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford suffered a sprained UCL in his right hand, so bettors should keep an eye on his status. The Rams could turn to Brett Rypien or John Wolford, whom they signed to the active roster on Tuesday.
Our crew has concerns about Stafford's injury and his potential replacements, which is why a majority took the Green Bay Packers to cover by a field goal.
Knox has his doubts about the Packers and specifically the team's offensive game plans. He sided with the Rams for the outright win.
"I have zero belief in the Packers right now. I don't think that Jordan Love is playing as poorly as statistics might suggest, but the game planning around him hasn't been good. Aaron Jones still doesn't look like he's 100 percent, and after watching seven games of AJ Dillon this year, I get why the Packers had interest in Jonathan Taylor.
"Green Bay hasn't been able to lean on its defense—a unit that just sent cornerback Rasul Douglas to Buffalo—either. Aside from the Cowboys game, the Rams have looked like a much more competitive squad than most expected to see this season. The Packers have somehow looked worse. Matthew Stafford's thumb injury obviously clouds the picture, but I can see L.A. getting enough from its patchwork backfield to win outright."
Predictions
Davenport: Rams
Gagnon: Packers
Hanford: Packers
Knox: Rams
Moton: Packers
O'Donnell: Packers
Sobleski: Rams
ATS Consensus: Packers -2.5
SU Consensus: Packers
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Rams 21
Arizona Cardinals (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)
6 of 14
DK Line: Cleveland -8
Before the trade deadline on Tuesday, the Arizona Cardinals sent quarterback Joshua Dobbs to the Minnesota Vikings, which opens up the starting spot for Kyler Murray or rookie fifth-rounder Clayton Tune.
According to ESPN's Josh Weinfuss, the Cardinals initially intended to bench Dobbs for Tune, which indicates whom the team might start on Sunday.
Though Murray has practiced over the past two weeks, Arizona may want to make sure he's as close to 100 percent as possible coming off a torn ACL.
With a rookie likely to start, the Cardinals will struggle to move the ball through the air against the Cleveland Browns' No. 1-ranked pass defense. Moreover, Cleveland has forced six turnovers in its last two games.
Despite uncertainty about the Browns' quarterback situation as Deshaun Watson recovers from a shoulder injury, Sobleski confidently picked Cleveland to cover the biggest point spread for Week 9.
"Fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune will make his first career start against Myles Garrett and the Browns' No. 1-ranked defense in Cleveland. Yikes, good luck with all that."
Predictions
Davenport: Cardinals
Gagnon: Browns
Hanford: Browns
Knox: Browns
Moton: Browns
O'Donnell: Browns
Sobleski: Browns
ATS Consensus: Browns -8
SU Consensus: Browns
Score Prediction: Browns 28, Cardinals 17
Washington Commanders (3-5) at New England Patriots (2-6)
7 of 14
DK Line: New England -3.5
As trade deadline sellers, the Washington Commanders made the biggest splash on Tuesday, sending Chase Young and Montez Sweat to the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears, respectively.
Based on those transactions, the Commanders have their eyes on the long-term future. Without Young and Sweat up front, defensive tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen will have an increased responsibility to generate a pass rush and stop the run for a defense that's allowing the second-most points per game.
Though the Patriots have fallen to the bottom of the standings with a 2-6 record, Moton still likes their chances to exploit the Commanders' porous defense.
"This game may be hard to watch because the Patriots have one of the league's worst pass-catching groups, but they have an advantageous matchup through the air. The Commanders traded away their starting defensive ends, and they have the 29th-ranked pass defense that's allowed the most touchdowns (18) through Week 8.
"Without Kendrick Bourne, quarterback Mac Jones will likely rely heavily on tight end Hunter Henry, running back Rhamondre Stevenson and perhaps JuJu Smith-Schuster in the passing game.
"While bettors may grimace while they watch this contest, they should feel confident in the Patriots' ability to attack a clear weakness in Washington's defense. Regardless of its record, New England is still a well-coached squad under lead skipper Bill Belichick and Co.
"Patriots win by more than a field goal."
Predictions
Davenport: Commanders
Gagnon: Commanders
Hanford: Patriots
Knox: Patriots
Moton: Patriots
O'Donnell: Patriots
Sobleski: Commanders
ATS Consensus: Patriots -3.5
SU Consensus: Patriots
Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Commanders 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Houston Texans (3-4)
8 of 14
DK Line: Houston -2.5
Both of these teams sit on the outside of the playoff picture and need a win to climb back to .500.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be the more desperate club because they're on a three-game losing streak. Despite their record, the Houston Texans have played better than expected with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing for nine touchdowns and one interception in seven games.
As Hanford explains, we sided with the Buccaneers, who have covered the spread in all three of their road games and had extra time to prepare for this matchup.
"The Buccaneers have fallen back to earth hard with three straight losses after a 3-1 start, but they're 3-0 ATS on the road this year, and I like that trend to continue. Tampa Bay fought to stay in the game against the Bills last Thursday night, earning a backdoor cover against a Super Bowl contender, and it gets an extra few days of rest on top of that.
"Houston's defense won't harass Baker Mayfield as much as Buffalo's did, and the Bucs eke out a win as they desperately try to keep pace in the NFC South race."
Predictions
Davenport: Texans
Gagnon: Buccaneers
Hanford: Buccaneers
Knox: Buccaneers
Moton: Texans
O'Donnell: Buccaneers
Sobleski: Texans
ATS Consensus: Buccaneers +2.5
SU Consensus: Buccaneers
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 21, Texans 20
Chicago Bears (2-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)
9 of 14
DK Line: New Orleans -7.5
After a win over the Las Vegas Raiders, Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent came back to earth in a rough outing Sunday. Against the Los Angeles Chargers, he threw for 232 yards and two interceptions in a 30-13 loss.
On Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, Bagent will continue to start in place of Justin Fields, who's recovering from a dislocated thumb.
To keep the score close and help their undrafted rookie signal-caller, the Bears may employ a run-heavy game plan. The Saints have allowed an average of 132.3 rushing yards over the last three weeks.
Our experts don't see a close game between these two clubs, though. Moton has noticed that the Saints have found their rhythm on offense, and he believes Derek Carr and Co. will continue to move the ball well against the Bears defense.
"After a sluggish start, the Saints offense looks ready to steamroll the Bears' 28th-ranked scoring defense. Over the last four weeks, New Orleans has averaged 27.3 points per game while racking up 407-plus yards in each of its last three outings.
"This season, the Saints haven't fared well as favorites, going 1-5-1 ATS, but with their offense on a hot streak, they should win decisively against the Bears, who will start undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent for a third consecutive outing.
"New Orleans will win big at home with another strong offensive performance and a stout defense that picks on an inexperienced signal-caller."
Predictions
Davenport: Saints
Gagnon: Saints
Hanford: Saints
Knox: Saints
Moton: Saints
O'Donnell: Saints
Sobleski: Saints
ATS Consensus: Saints -7.5
SU Consensus: Saints
Score Prediction: Saints 31, Bears 14
Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Carolina Panthers (1-6)
10 of 14
DK Line: Indianapolis -2.5
Last week, the Carolina Panthers celebrated their first win of the season, knocking off the Houston Texans 15-13 at home.
Perhaps the Panthers' first win coupled with a solid performance from rookie quarterback Bryce Young kick-starts a winning stretch for the club. They'll face the Indianapolis Colts, who have lost three consecutive outings.
Sobleski has major concerns about the Colts' underwhelming banged-up secondary. He likes the Panthers to cover with Young on the upswing.
"While everyone else is on the Colts, the Panthers are an intriguing underdog for two connecting reasons," Sobleski wrote.
"First, Bryce Young is coming off his most efficient game so far, with a 71 completion percentage and an average of 7.6 yards per attempt in Carolina's first win this season.
"Second, the Colts secondary is a disaster right now and general manager Chris Ballard did nothing to improve the situation prior to the trade deadline. JuJu Brents continues to deal with a quad injury. The coaching staff doesn't seem too receptive to the idea of Kenny Moore II bumping to outside corner. Jaylon Jones is still a rookie.
"Indianapolis' uninspiring group of defensive backs is more than enough to take the spread and the Panthers outright."
Predictions
Davenport: Colts
Gagnon: Colts
Hanford: Colts
Knox: Colts
Moton: Colts
O'Donnell: Colts
Sobleski: Panthers
ATS Consensus: Colts -2.5
SU Consensus: Colts
Score Prediction: Colts 23, Panthers 20
Dallas Cowboys (5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
11 of 14
DK Line: Philadelphia -3
The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Dallas Cowboys in a marquee matchup between two teams that have a shot to finish with the No. 1 seed in the NFC. With potential playoff implications baked into the game, we'll likely see a competitive battle.
As a starter, quarterback Jalen Hurts has a 1-2 career record against the Cowboys, but he won the last outing in Week 6 of last year. As a team, Philadelphia has lost four of its last five games against Dallas.
The majority of our crew picked the Eagles, but Davenport doesn't trust Philadelphia's pass defense, and he's concerned about Hurts playing through a knee injury.
"This game is so good (and this pick so difficult) that I don't even have jokes—not even a tired 'Philly fans are so mean they beat up Girl Scouts to get free tailgating cookies' joke. The Eagles are the better team in a vacuum, and Dallas has laid two eggs on the road this year, including a flat-out embarrassing loss in Arizona.
"But Jalen Hurts' ouchie knee could be a real factor in this game given the Cowboys' ability to rush the passer, and no one is talking about the fact that the Eagles pass defense is kind of, um, bad—they just gave up almost 400 yards and four scores to Thurston Howell and the Commanders.
"There is no dominant team in either conference this season, and the Cowboys are capable of going into Philly and squeaking out a win that would make the whole conference more interesting."
Predictions
Davenport: Cowboys
Gagnon: Eagles
Hanford: Eagles
Knox: Eagles
Moton: Eagles
O'Donnell: Eagles
Sobleski: Eagles
ATS Consensus: Eagles -3
SU Consensus: Eagles
Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Cowboys 23
New York Giants (2-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-5)
12 of 14
DK Line: Las Vegas -2
This week, the Las Vegas Raiders fired head coach Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi and general manager Dave Ziegler. In the middle of the season, they've divorced themselves from the 'Patriot Way.'
Linebackers coach Antonio Pierce will serve as the interim head coach, and the team promoted Bo Hardegree to offensive coordinator, which has a significant impact on Sunday's contest.
Up to this point, the Raiders haven't been able to score more than 21 points in a game. O'Donnell likes the Giants offense to take advantage of Raiders' rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell, who will start in place of Jimmy Garoppolo.
"The fired coach boost gives me a lot of pause for this one," O'Donnell admitted. "The Raiders looked like one of the worst football teams I've seen in a long time recently, and I do expect them to play with more heart and fire at home in this one than the game on Monday Night Football last week.
"The Giants don't really inspire any confidence either after choking away a 99 percent win probability a week ago while netting minus-nine yards passing in a game. Both teams are mad. Both teams should be mad. I'll take the points even if they're minimal as Las Vegas starts a rookie QB against a defense that has found a spark as of late. Don't be surprised if the defenses score more points than the offenses in this one."
Davenport humorously picked the Raiders.
"Picking this game is like a 4 a.m. run to White Castle—you regret doing it before it's even done, and no matter what you pick, you know intestinal distress will be arriving soon enough. The Giants threw for minus-nine yards last week (not a typo) with Danny DeVito at quarterback (who knew he was so versatile—and spry for a 78-year-old?), while the Raiders held a team meeting (h/t NFL Network's Tom Pelissero) before last week's tubthumping in Detroit in which Josh McDaniels may have asked if the players knew if anyone was hiring.
"Too soon?
"The thing is, sacking McDaniels and general manager Dave 'pick a name out of a hat' Ziegler is all but certainly a good thing—the last time Vegas canned its coach in-season and elevated a guy no one expected (Rich Bisaccia), the team made the playoffs.
"NFL teams also tend to rally when things like this happen. Whether it's Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor or Judd Hirsch (bonus points if you get that one) at quarterback for New York, they will spend most of Sunday running for their lives from Maxx Crosby thanks to New York's quintuple matador blocking technique.
"Raiders win outright for the second time this week—because McDaniels is well and truly an awful head coach."
Predictions
Davenport: Raiders
Gagnon: Raiders
Hanford: Giants
Knox: Raiders
Moton: Raiders
O'Donnell: Giants
Sobleski: Giants
ATS Consensus: Raiders -2
SU Consensus: Raiders
Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Giants 20
Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)
13 of 14
DK Line: Cincinnati -2
The Cincinnati Bengals have put their slow start behind them, and quarterback Joe Burrow looks healthy after he reaggravated a calf injury in Week 2. The Bengals will ride a three-game winning streak into a home matchup with the Buffalo Bills.
Though we know the Bills can go on a scoring rampage at any moment, their offense hasn't looked quite as potent in recent weeks, averaging 20.8 points per game since Week 5.
By the way, the Bengals went on the road to beat the Bills 27-10 in the AFC divisional round of the playoffs last year, so you can understand why we heavily favor Cincinnati at home.
Gagnon sees trouble for the Bills as the Bengals gain momentum heading into the second half of the season.
"I've lost trust in the Bills, while the Bengals are putting it together. With Cincinnati at home, it's really as simple as that. You admittedly never know when Buffalo is going to turn it on and put up 50 points, but that doesn't appear to be in the cards right now, and the defense has some obvious exploitable holes for Joe Burrow and Co.
"I'm really surprised Cincinnati isn't at least giving up a field goal in a critical prime-time home matchup with a team it easily defeated on the road in last year's playoffs, especially considering Buffalo's recent struggles in closing out games."
Predictions
Davenport: Bengals
Gagnon: Bengals
Hanford: Bengals
Knox: Bengals
Moton: Bengals
O'Donnell: Bengals
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bengals -2
SU Consensus: Bengals
Score Prediction: Bengals 30, Bills 24
Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) at New York Jets (4-3)
14 of 14
DK Line: Los Angeles -3
After consecutive losses to the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs following a bye week, the Los Angeles Chargers crushed the Chicago Bears 30-13 to avoid a three-game skid.
In their third prime-time game in four weeks, the Chargers should be accustomed to the bright lights of a standalone contest, though they'll play a New York Jets squad on a three-game winning streak.
Despite the Jets' 3-1 record ATS as the home team this season, our crew has little trust in quarterback Zach Wilson, who has thrown for five touchdowns and five interceptions with a 58.3 percent completion rate in seven games.
Gagnon went in the other direction and rolled the dice on the Jets' gritty play style to help them win outright.
"The Chargers have given up at least 24 points in all three of their road games, losing two of them," Gagnon pointed out. "The Jets are at home, have a superior record and haven't lost a game in a month. By no means are they a good team, but they've been finding ways to win.
"I'm also not sure the Chargers will be able to get the ground game going against New York's D to maintain a lead, if they get one at all. I'm taking Gang Green straight up."
Predictions
Davenport: Chargers
Gagnon: Jets
Hanford: Jets
Knox: Chargers
Moton: Chargers
O'Donnell: Chargers
Sobleski: Chargers
ATS Consensus: Chargers -3
SU Consensus: Chargers
Score Prediction: Chargers 22, Jets 17
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