World Series 2023: Stat Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Game 3
Game 3 of the 2023 World Series pits one of the most experienced starting pitchers in Major League Baseball against a rookie making his first Fall Classic start.
However, you could make the case that the Arizona Diamondbacks are in better shape with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound than the Texas Rangers are with Max Scherzer.
Pfaadt allowed just five earned runs over his 16.2 postseason innings. Three of those concessions occurred in his first postseason start in the wild-card round against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Scherzer allowed seven earned runs over just 6.2 innings of work this postseason, but he has three solid World Series starts on his resume.
Texas needs a solid start out of Scherzer to flip the series back in its favor, while Arizona requires the same consistency out of Pfaadt.
The best hitters to solve Scherzer and Pfaadt should be the ones who have had successful postseasons, like Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia and Ketel Marte.
Starting Pitchers
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Max Scherzer: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 K
Brandon Pfaadt: 5 IP, 3 H, ER, 5 K
What Pfaadt lacks in the experience matchup with Scherzer he gains back with his recent form.
Pfaadt was spectacular in his two home starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies.
The rookie right-hander held the Dodgers to two hits over 4.1 innings in NLDS Game 3 and struck out nine Phillies in NLCS Game 3.
No one on the Texas roster has more than three at-bats versus Pfaadt, a factor that played to his advantage in his first appearance against the Phillies.
Pfaadt should keep the Rangers hitters off balance and keep them off the scoreboard for five innings, which is the required length to bridge the gap to the high-leverage arms in the D-Backs bullpen.
Scherzer is the question mark of the two starting hurlers. He was pulled in the third inning of his second ALCS start. He lasted four frames in his first appearance of the postseason.
The Texas right-hander is more than capable of reversing his form and turning into the reliable World Series arm that he has been in the past for the Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals.
Scherzer allowed seven earned runs in 16.1 innings across his World Series appearances. He should find a way to fix his current issues and give the Rangers at least five solid innings.
Top Hitters
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Ketel Marte: 1-for-4, double
Tommy Pham: 2-for-4
Corey Seager: 1-for-5, double
Adolis Garcia: 0-for-4, two strikeouts
Arizona holds the advantage in the batter-versus-pitcher matchup.
Three D-Backs players have seen Scherzer more than 20 times in their careers, including Tommy Pham, who is coming off a four-hit Game 2.
Pham is only 3-for-23 against Texas' Game 3 starter, but he does have the benefit of carrying a hot bat, as does Marte.
Marte comes into Game 3 with an 18-game postseason hitting streak. At this point, it is hard to imagine the Arizona second baseman not reaching base with a hit. He is 1-for-9 versus Scherzer, but that may not slow him down at his current pace.
Seager and Garcia may have trouble dealing with Pfaadt, as the top sluggers on the Dodgers and Phillies roster did in the previous two series.
Garcia at least has the benefit of facing Pfaadt three times in his career, but he does not have a hit against Arizona's Game 3 starter.
Seager has not had an at-bat versus Pfaadt, and that could lead to some tough at-bats at the start of the contest. The Texas shortstop's best opportunity to get on base may come against the Arizona bullpen, like it did in Game 1 against Paul Sewald.
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