What Quentin Johnston, Struggling 2023 NFL Rookies Need to Prove Rest of Season
The 2023 NFL draft class has already produced some players who look like they are going to be foundational pieces for their respective franchises, but not everyone has come out in the first part of the season looking like a star.
There are several rookies who were early picks but haven't lived up to their draft stock yet.
The good news is that their careers are far from over. While it can be frustrating for a fanbase to watch a first- or second-round pick not live up to the hype early in their career, progression is not always linear and the learning curve is steeper for some.
Still, there's at least something that most of these rookies can do to show they are on the right track and will eventually fulfill the promise their team saw in them in the first place.
Based on potential role, health and team situation, here are some realistic benchmarks that each struggling rookie needs to meet to give the fans, front office and coaching staff hope.
CB Emmanuel Forbes: He Can Be Trusted on the Field
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Emmanuel Forbes has had to deal with one of the most deflating things any rookie can go through: Getting benched.
The No. 16 pick went from playing 92 percent of the snaps in Week 4 to getting pulled after playing 24 snaps in Week 5 and being held completely out of the game in Week 6 against the Falcons.
In the two games prior to being left out of the lineup, Forbes gave up 10 completions on 14 targets for 186 yards and a touchdown. In other words, he was a liability.
For what it's worth, Washington Commanders head coach Ron Rivera praised the Mississippi State product for how he has taken the setback and reiterated the organization's faith in its first-round pick.
"I think he's been great. He really has," he told reporters. "He and I had a conversation last week as to what was going on. Just explained to him that we feel right now a little time down would help you. Good chance to kind of take a step back and watch it and see how things are done, see a little different perspective."
Cornerback is a volatile position by nature anyway. Even the best CBs can have entire seasons where they look bad, so it's not nearly time to write off Forbes yet. But if this benching turns out to be a long-term issue, then it's time to get concerned.
The Commanders staff is going to get a look at Forbes in practice every day. Right now, he just needs to prove he's worthy of being out on the field, even if the results don't end up coming this season.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: He Can Get Healthy and Create Receiving Role
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Jahmyr Gibbs has recently been slowed down by injury, but that doesn't make up for the fact that he was off to a slow start to the season with the Detroit Lions before a hamstring issue took him out of the lineup in Week 4.
The No. 12 pick was advertised as someone who could push Bijan Robinson for Rookie of the Year. He didn't do anything to stop that hype train when he told Michele Steele of ESPN that he could hit 1,000 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving in a season.
To this point, Gibbs is on pace for 507 rushing yards and 198 receiving yards on 40 receptions. It's a decent rookie season if he was a late Day 2 or 3 pick and happened to be forced into the lineup.
That's not the case, though. This is a player who was taken with a top-15 selection and should have a special role in the offense.
Success for the Alabama product's rookie season might not mean a 1,500-yard season, but it should mean that he can get—and stay—healthy while carving out a definitive role as the team's pass-catching back.
Hitting 400-500 yards receiving should still be within sight, and we need to see some of those electric plays that give him game-breaking potential. Right now, his longest rush is 10 yards and his longest reception is 21.
With Gibbs set to come back in Week 7 and David Montgomery out, the rookie needs to hit the ground running.
WR Quentin Johnston: He Can Create Yards After the Catch
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At 6'4", 215 pounds, Quentin Johnston looks a lot like Mike Williams, who is listed at 6'4", 218 pounds.
So, when the 29-year-old went down with a torn ACL in Week 3, it seemed like a perfect time for the No. 21 pick to step right into his role and help the Los Angeles Chargers offense keep chugging along.
He didn't.
Instead, Josh Palmer has become WR2 alongside Keenan Allen while Johnston is clearly third in the pecking order. But that's only if you're looking at snaps. Targets move the TCU product down the list even more. He is yet to see more than three in a game and was completely shut out with no catches on two targets against the Dallas Cowboys.
As a downfield threat, Johnston has disappointed. His route win rate of 32.1 percent is 112th in league, per Player Profiler.
However, there's an aspect of Johnston's game that he hasn't really had the opportunity to show yet: What he can do with the ball in his hands.
B/R scout Derrik Klassen praised his ability after the catch going ahead of April's draft.
"Johnston is also a YAC threat in more ways than one," he wrote. "Not only does he have enough speed to break away from defenders, but he also has more wiggle than you might expect."
The fact that Johnston is not as good a downfield threat as anticipated early in his career does not mean he's a bust. It means he has to work to become a more nuanced route-runner and build chemistry with his quarterback.
The catch-and-run ability is something he can show right now to give some hope to the Chargers and their fans.
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WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: He Deserves to Continue Increased Role
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a case study in just how hard it is to project who is going to have an immediate impact and who will take some time.
He was voted as our most pro-ready receiver, but that didn't help him get off to a hot start.
Through five games, the No. 20 pick has 16 receptions for 110 yards with no touchdowns. Only four of those receptions have gone for first downs.
Part of the problem is that it's clear Smith-Njigba is taking a while to earn the trust of the coaching staff. He crossed the 50-snap threshold for the first time in the Week 6 game against the Cincinnati Bengals and turned in his most productive game with four catches for 48 yards.
The Ohio State product has a harder path to playing time than most first-rounders. The Seahawks already have a great duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but they could be adding more Smith-Njigba to their game plan anyway.
"Don't be surprised if you start seeing him on the field more even if those guys remain healthy," Dan Graziano of ESPN noted recently. "The Seahawks want to be able to show defenses as many different looks as possible, and as JSN continues to develop, they'll find more and more ways to deploy him."
Smith-Njigba just has to continue to prove he deserves more looks and convince the Seahawks to play in more 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) looks.
Edge Tyree Wilson: He Can Win One-on-One Reps
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Pretty much the entire class of edge-rushers is off to a slow start.
There are five rookies with two or more sacks right now, and third-round pick Byron Young is the only true edge-rusher of the bunch. Tuli Tuipulotu is a bit of a hybrid and also has two.
Sacks can be a fickle stat anyway. To determine how well a rookie is really performing something like pressure rate can give a better picture. The bad news for No. 7 overall pick Tyree Wilson is that neither figure is good for him.
The Texas Tech product doesn't have any sacks, but he also only has three pressures on 91 pass-rushing attempts, per Sports Info Solutions. By comparison, Tuipulotu has generated 14 pressures on 109 attempts for a pressure rate of 11.1 percent.
When it comes down to it, Wilson just isn't winning his matchups. Per PFF, he has a pass-rush win rate of just 2.4 percent with the Las Vegas Raiders, ranking last in the league.
He wouldn't be the first young edge-rusher to wind up with very few sacks in his rookie season before ultimately becoming a successful quarterback-hunter. But if the underlying metrics don't start improving, it's hard to see that being his career arc.
Edge Myles Murphy: He Can Develop Pass-Rush Moves
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Going all the way back to the preseason opener, Myles Murphy told reporters that he learned he "needs more confidence" to go with "a plane when it comes to pass rushing."
Six games into the season, and the No. 28 pick's self-analysis still rings true. Except he's had some time to show he can do it and it's starting to cost him playing time.
In five games, Murphy has shown little outside of his natural athletic gifts. He has a sack, but that doesn't really tell the whole story as it's the only pressure he has on 31 pass rushes, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Clemson product came into the league with a relative athletic score of 9.71 but had modest college production with a career high of eight sacks as a sophomore before following it up wth 6.5 sacks as a junior.
Murphy's playing time has continued on a downward trend with the Cincinnati Bengals. Early in the season, he was playing between 13-19 snaps nearly every week, he has seen eight combined over the past two weeks. Joseph Ossai has effectively taken his role.
It's not surprising that Murphy has not been an early producer. He was drafted as a bit of a project, but the timetable for first-round picks to perform is always shortened. On a team that has Super Bowl aspirations, he needs to start showing a more nuanced approach that can help him get on the field and contribute now.
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