Predicting Shocking 2024 NFL Draft Trade Scenarios Ahead of 2023 Trade Deadline
With the NFL's trade deadline steadily approaching at the end of the month, trades are a hot topic of discussion as the league's general managers are picking up the phone and wheeling and dealing. So, let's jump in on the conversation with an eye toward the draft, predicting a few pick swaps or exchanges that could shake up the NFL.
The selection criteria for each move were simple. What are a few scenarios that would make people take a second look at their phones when the notification pops up on the screen, but are also realistic enough that the move could actually happen given each team's situation?
We'll dive into what each team's end goal is, what they can give up and/or receive in a trade, potential partners, and why the trade makes sense for each club.
Falcons Sell the Farm for Drake Maye
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Falcons' End goal: This one's pretty simple. Quarterback play is currently holding the Atlanta Falcons back, as Desmond Ridder has struggled with as many touchdown passes as interceptions (six) so far and a 40.0 QBR that ranks 25th out of 33 qualifiers, per ESPN.
Meanwhile, Drake Maye projects to be one of the top quarterbacks available in the draft and has thrown for 1,902 yards and 12 touchdowns to four interceptions with a 68.9 completion percentage in six games. He's also added nearly 200 yards and four scores on the ground, and the Tar Heel has caught B/R's NFL draft scout Derrick Klassen's eye recently.
"The more Maye plays in 2023, the better he gets," Klassen explained. "After a few imperfect games to open the year, Maye is starting to make sweet, sweet music.
"Maye plays with fantastic pre-snap awareness as well as pocket presence. He also stays on schedule as a passer and plays with a good internal clock, which helps keep the offense away from negative plays.
"But when he has to, Maye can get active outside the pocket. He's a B+ level athlete and can really move once he gets going on the edge. If Maye keeps playing the way he has recently, the QB1 conversation is going to get even hotter."
Can give up: A move like this will likely take a haul and multiple first-round picks, hence the "sell the farm" phrase above. Luckily, Atlanta has their first-rounder for this year's draft, which currently sits at No. 11 overall, as well as next year's, so they have the Day 1 capital to make the trade happen.
However, a move of this magnitude will likely take a second-round pick or two, and/or a player, similar to what the Carolina Panthers had to give up for Bryce Young. The Falcons have the selections at their disposal and could potentially package in Grady Jarrett to sweeten the deal.
While losing Jarrett wouldn't be ideal, he turns 31 in April and is only under contract for two more seasons after this one. Also, Atlanta signed David Onyemata last March, and he could step up as the team's top defensive tackle if Jarrett gets moved.
Potential Partners: The Falcons' best hope at getting Maye is to strike a deal with the Chicago Bears, who own the current first and second picks of the draft after the Young trade referenced above. If Chicago takes Caleb Williams first overall or decides to stick with Justin Fields, Atlanta could fly into No. 2 and get their quarterback.
Why: As previously mentioned, Ridder is holding the Falcons back. They have a good roster and don't have many significant impending free agents, but they need to make a change under center if the team is going to be a legitimate playoff and Super Bowl contender moving forward.
Also, Maye is essentially what the organization was hoping Ridder would be—a quarterback with a big arm who can also make plays with his legs—just on a much higher level. So, the Falcons should do whatever it takes to trade up and get their franchise quarterback.
Bengals Let Tee Higgins Walk, Target Rome Odunze
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Bengals' end goal: The Cincinnati Bengals wisely locked Joe Burrow down for the foreseeable future and invested in some protection for him by signing Orlando Brown Jr. this offseason. Now, their attention likely will turn to extending Burrow's top target, Ja'Marr Chase, but they won't be able to pay everyone.
That likely means impending 2024 free-agent wide receivers Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are playing out their last days with the club, especially since Higgins and the organization reportedly were never close to an agreement during extension talks this summer.
So, the Bengals' offense will be looking to replace a lot of talent out wide, and Rome Odunze has the contested-catch skills that can replace what Higgins brings to the table, as B/R's NFL draft scout Derrik Klassen outlined the Husky's skill set below.
"All of Odunze's best traits make life easier on the quarterback," Klassen explained. "Odunze's 6'3", 216-pound frame comes with the catch radius and toughness in traffic that allows quarterbacks to throw into contested windows with confidence.
"He's also an easy mover, though his speed only shows in flashes. Odunze is just exceptionally consistent and reliable, almost to the point that it's boring to watch because you know he's going to deliver."
Can give up: Obviously, how much or what type of capital Cincinnati will have to give up is dependent on how they finish the season or where they end up picking in the draft.
Regardless, the Bengals do have nine picks in this year's draft at their disposal, including all their Day 1 and 2 selections, and all of their 2025 picks are currently intact as well. They also have a few tradable players like Joseph Ossai, Trey Hendrickson and B.J. Hill—all of whom will be entering contract years next season—to potentially sweeten the deal.
Potential Partners: Odunze was the 10th player on B/R's initial NFL draft big board and No. 7 overall in Mel Kiper's rankings last week. So, Cincinnati is likely looking at trading up into the top 10 to get the wideout.
With how the current draft order stands, the Bears and Vikings would probably be the Bengals' best options for getting a single-digit pick.
Chicago owns two likely top-five picks—maybe even two of the top three—with their own and Carolina's. Meanwhile, Minnesota has two good receivers in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and projects to have several offseason needs. So, they could be willing to move back and add more picks to fill the holes on their roster.
Why: Burrow and Cincinnati have had the luxury of playing with two receivers who could be the "No. 1 target" on most other teams with Chase and Higgins.
It won't be easy to replicate the latter's production without another top-of-the-line talent out wide, as he accounted for about 23 percent of the team's receiving yards and 20 percent of their touchdown receptions last season, via Pro Football Reference. Throw in losing Boyd, and the Bengals go from one of the NFL's best receiving corps to needing help out wide.
The team also is in a spot where they won't need much at other positions, so being aggressive and trading up for one of the top wide receivers in this year's class will help ensure the offense remains at the top of the league.
Patriots Trade Up for a Quarterback
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Patriots' end goal: On the surface level, this may not seem like it would be much of a surprise, as Mac Jones has been terrible since his rookie year. So, the New England Patriots are expected to be players in the quarterback market this offseason, and moving up the draft board to get one seems perfectly reasonable.
However, Bill Belichick is known for trading back in the first round of the draft and rarely trades up on Day 1. In fact, Belichick has only traded up 17 times regardless of round and has traded back 31 times since 2010, per NESN's Zack Cox.
Circling back to the Patriots' end goal, it's simple. They need a franchise quarterback, and Jones ain't it. The problem is there are only two players in this year's class who, at this time, B/R's NFL draft scouting department can feel comfortable applying that label to—Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Williams and Maye were the only signal-callers to crack the top 30 on the department's initial big board, and no one else came particularly close. Shedeur Sanders was ranked as the third quarterback but was No. 54 overall.
In 2021, New England sat back and waited to see who would fall to them with the 15th pick overall, and that's how they ended up with Jones. I don't see Belichick making the same mistake twice.
Can give up: If the Patriots keep losing like they have been recently, it won't take much for them to get into range for Williams or Maye. However, they currently hold the sixth selection with the current draft order and will need to get up to first or second.
The Bears hold both of those picks, and moving back just four spots while adding more capital to address other needs could be an intriguing option for Chicago. New England could package their first- and second-rounders from this year and throw in a 2025 Day 2 pick to get a deal done.
Potential Partners: Unfortunately, the Pats' options for trade partners in this scenario are pretty limited, as the Bears control the top of the draft with the first two picks overall, essentially forcing any QB-needy team to trade with them. So, barring a change in the order between now and the end of the season, it's Chicago or bust for Belichick and company.
Why: The Patriots have learned pretty quickly that they aren't much without an elite quarterback. While they could be more patient and hope they luck into another Tom Brady by waiting to take a quarterback with a non-premium draft pick, those odds are low.
They need to learn their lesson from the Jones experiment and be aggressive in targeting a top talent at the most important position on the field.
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Broncos Trade Back for More Assets
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Broncos' end goal: The Denver Broncos head into Sunday with a 1-5 record and the fourth-worst point differential (-71) in the NFL. They're looking at having a high pick in the draft, where one of this year's top quarterbacks—Caleb Williams or Drake Maye—could be available. So, many people expect them to take a young signal-caller in April.
However, the Broncos have also already traded Randy Gregory "in an effort to focus on young players," per general manager George Paton via CBS Colorado. More trades could be on the horizon, too, as the organization is expected to be a seller during the deadline, meaning a complete rebuild is coming.
So, instead of getting a quarterback right now and putting him in harm's way by surrounding him with other young players, why not trade the premium pick for more assets to build out the rest of the roster and add a passer later?
Plus, Russell Wilson is under contract through 2028, so they could build out the rest of the roster for a year or two while Wilson is behind center and then turn over the reigns to someone else, similar to what the Chiefs did with Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes.
That way the young quarterback doesn't have to come into a messy situation and is in a better environment to succeed right away.
Can give up: Right now, Denver holds the No. 3 overall pick, which should yield a high return in a trade, especially if Williams and/or Maye make it past Chicago with the first and second selections.
Granted, what the Bears do with those picks will play a factor. But, even if one of the quarterbacks isn't available, the Broncos could at least receive similar compensation to what the Cardinals got from the Texans during this past year's draft. Arizona gave up the third overall selection for Nos. 12 and 33 overall, and a first- and third-rounder in 2024.
Potential partners: Any team that needs a quarterback and picks behind Denver could be a potential partner, which should give them plenty of options. With the current draft order, New England, Minnesota, Tennessee, New Orleans and Atlanta would fit those criteria and be able to send a top-15 pick in return.
Why: As mentioned above, there's the benefit of not having to throw a young quarterback into a bad situation by acquiring more assets and building out the rest of the roster first. But another big reason is that it's going to be extremely difficult for the organization to get out of Wilson's contract.
According to Pro Football Focus' Brad Spielberger, the Broncos would pay Wilson $39 million next year while taking on dead cap hits of $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025 by releasing him with a post-June 1 distinction. That's a lot of money to cough up for someone who won't even be on the team.
To me, it'd make more sense to use him as a stopgap until someone else comes along and is ready to be thrown into the fire.
Vikings Trade Justin Jefferson for Massive Haul
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Vikings' end goal: The Minnesota Vikings are 2-4 with one-possession wins over the 0-6 Panthers and 1-5 Bears heading into Week 7. Returning to the postseason feels like an afterthought, and they have several key players from last season's playoff team who are impending free agents like Kirk Cousins, Danielle Hunter and Ezra Cleveland.
In other words, it might make sense for the Vikings to hit the reset button and rebuild this offseason.
They failed to reach a contract extension with Justin Jefferson this past summer, and it's hard to imagine he'd be more willing to strike a long-term deal with a team that is probably going to do a lot more losing during the rebuild. So, trading Jefferson to get more assets to build for the future should be on the table for Minnesota.
Can give up: Since we're talking about a specific player here, this section isn't as applicable as it was with the other scenarios. The Vikings could throw in another player or a mid- to late-round draft pick to sweeten the deal, but the wideout is the focal point in any trade talks.
Potential Partners: The list of potential trade partners should be very long, seeing as just about any team would undoubtedly love to have the reigning Offensive Player of the Year on their roster. Of course, wide receiver-needy clubs would be willing to give up the most, making the Cardinals, Steelers and Ravens, among others, potential suitors for Jefferson.
Why: Green Bay received first- and second-round picks from Las Vegas for Davante Adams, and Kansas City got that plus two fourth-rounders and a sixth-round pick from Miami for Tyreek Hill. Minnesota can expect to receive similar compensation for Jefferson, and maybe even a little more since he's younger than both Adams and Hill when those two were dealt.
Adding at least two top-64 picks would be huge for a team that's about to start a rebuild, especially if the Vikings aren't going to be able to retain Jefferson beyond next season anyway.
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