Top Offseason Issues for Dodgers, O's, Braves and More After Early MLB Playoff Exits
The 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays combined to win 300 regular-season games. They proceeded to go a combined 0-8 while each getting swept out of the postseason.
What sort of decisions and offseason issues lie ahead for those teams as they try to put together a roster that is better equipped to survive the randomness of playoff baseball next year?
Baltimore doesn't figure to have a very tumultuous offseason, as 15 of its 16 players worth more than 1.0 bWAR will be under team control for at least one more year. (Adam Frazier is the exception, but letting the veteran second baseman walk could up a spot on the Opening Day roster for Jackson Holliday, MLB's No. 1 overall prospect.) But the O's do need to figure out their bullpen and maybe start actually spending some money.
The 2024 outlook for both Los Angeles and Tampa Bay is much murkier in light of their mutual litany of pitching injuries. The Dodgers could also lose as many as 18 players to free agency, so they'll be quite busy for the next few months.
For each too-early exit from the postseason, we've identified one massive offseason issue to address, as well as at least one other pressing concern with free agency fast approaching.
We'll also wrap up with one significant issue for the other playoff teams that have already been knocked out of the bracket.
Dodgers' Top Issue: The Landslide of Impending Free Agents
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The Los Angeles Dodgers ended the season with 15 players on their roster making at least $6 million in 2023. Of those 15 players, six—Clayton Kershaw, Enrique Hernández, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta, Amed Rosario and Julio Urías—are now unrestricted free agents, while five others—Lance Lynn, Max Muncy, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson—have club options for next season.
The Dodgers will probably pick up Muncy's $14 million option, but they might decline their option on all four pitchers. They're also at risk of losing Jason Heyward, Ryan Brasier, Shelby Miller and Kolten Wong as free agents.
The Dodgers have no shortage of money to spend. Neither Mookie Betts nor Freddie Freeman is going anywhere, and all of those other names coming off the books just gives the Dodgers more dollars to throw at the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Aaron Nola.
There might be a lot of new faces, but they'll put together another $250ish million payroll with more than enough talent to win 100 regular-season games once again.
But feel free to ask the New York Mets if having a seemingly unlimited supply of money and constructing a Frankenstein's monster of free agents can guarantee you won't go immediately from a 100-win World Series contender to a 75-win laughingstock.
That isn't to say we expect the Dodgers to be a disaster in 2024. They've been far and away the best regular-season team over the past 11 years, and there's still quite a stockpile of talent between that MLB roster and the farm system behind it.
With that said, they do have a lot of signings/re-signings to make this offseason. We can only wait and see how it all comes together.
Dodgers' Secondary Issue: Starting Pitching
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This is more of a 1B on the Dodgers' 1A top issue of free agency in general. But in case it wasn't clear during the NLDS, they have some serious starting rotation woes.
Granted, a lot of that was fueled by injury/suspension. They were hoping to get Walker Buehler back from his 2022 Tommy John surgery in time for the postseason, but that didn't happen. They weren't expecting to lose Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May to season-ending elbow surgeries of their own, nor did they plan on effectively kicking Julio Urías off the roster in September.
Three months ago, no one could have possibly predicted that they'd be starting Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn for Games 2 and 3 of the NLDS. But is next year going to be any better?
Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery on Sept. 1 and will miss most if not all of 2024. May had surgery on his flexor tendon and UCL in July, so he'll be to next season what Buehler was this season: questionable at best to return at some point in the second half.
Buehler figures to be on the Opening Day roster—perhaps even the Opening Day starter—but how well will he be able to pitch after his second Tommy John surgery? Will they bring back Lynn on his $18 million club option? And after flirting with the possibility the past two years, is this the offseason that Clayton Kershaw actually retires or signs elsewhere?
Again, the Dodgers have the money to put together a strong rotation in free agency. (Although adding Shohei Ohtani to the rotation in 2024 is no longer an option.) And between Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot, they have a bunch of promising young guys who figure to be part of the long-term plans.
As things presently stand, however, the Dodgers' 2024 rotation is a huge unknown.
Orioles' Top Issue: Climbing the Mountain Without 'The Mountain'
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The Baltimore Orioles didn't get swept out of the playoffs because Félix Bautista missed the ALDS. They didn't have any save situations against the Texas Rangers.
But the flame-throwing closer was undeniably one of the biggest reasons why Baltimore won 101 games during the regular season. He racked up 33 saves with a 1.48 ERA and a 16.2 K/9.
He did blow six saves, but the 6'8", 285-pound man known as "The Mountain" was one of the most menacing forces in the majors. Even though Baltimore's bullpen ERA was basically identical before (3.55) and after (3.54) his final appearance on August 25, rallying from a late deficit against the Orioles no longer felt as insurmountable with Bautista out of the picture.
Now that he has undergone Tommy John surgery and will likely miss all of next season, they'll need to figure out how to own the ninth inning without him to repeat as AL East champions.
Even if they're comfortable with Yennier Cano as the closer, can Danny Coulombe repeat his impressive campaign as the primary set-up guy in 2024? Where does 2017 first-round pick DL Hall factor into the mix? He was great for 22.2 innings (including postseason) of relief work this season, but he was a starting pitcher until a few months ago.
At least the Orioles should have a full season of John Means in the starting rotation. Between him, 2023 breakout stars Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez and more than respectable back-of-the-rotation options in Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin, they can probably keep Hall in the bullpen.
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Orioles' Secondary Issue: Is It Finally Time to Invest in the Future?
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At this point, we have little choice but to take a "Wake us up when it actually happens" stance on the notion of the Orioles making a big splash in free agency. Since hiring Mike Elias as general manager in November 2018, Baltimore has neither signed a free agent to a long-term contract nor landed a bigger name than Kyle Gibson.
But could this be the offseason where the O's start to invest in their young in-house stars before they become too well-established for this small-market club to afford?
The only active Oriole currently signed past this season is backup catcher James McCann, whom they'll owe $4 million in 2024. Aside from that, it's all players under team control whose salaries for next season will be worked out in the coming months.
Even for a franchise that repeatedly cries poverty, there's long-term money available to be invested in Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson.
They do still have four years before either one would hit free agency, but if even the Pittsburgh Pirates could find a way to sign both Ke'Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds to long-term contracts, what's keeping Baltimore from investing in its two-pronged foundation? Signing Shohei Ohtani or some other nine-figure free agent is simply not in the cards.
The Orioles could at least try to follow the Atlanta Braves model of spending somewhat freely on the young stars before they become young superstars. That strategy led to absurdly team-friendly contracts like Ronald Acuna Jr. on a 10-year, $124 million deal, or Ozzie Albies on a seven-year, $49 million deal.
That's how you actively build upon what has been an impressive two-year run rather than just sitting back and letting those service-time clocks run their course.
Rays' Top Issue: Continuing to Deal with the Injury-Riddled Pitching Staff
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The Tampa Bay Rays lost Jeffrey Springs to a season-ending arm injury in April, lost Drew Rasmussen to a season-ending arm injury in May and lost Shane McClanahan to a season-ending arm injury in early August.
For both Springs and McClanahan, it resulted in the dreaded Tommy John surgery that may well keep both out for the entire 2024 campaign. For Rasmussen—who previously had Tommy John surgeries in March 2016 and August 2017—it was a "hybrid internal brace procedure" from which he may or may not be able to return in the middle of next season.
The Rays also entered the season knowing they wouldn't have Shane Baz at any point, as he recovers from a Tommy John surgery of his own from last September.
Long story short, the starting rotation is a massive question mark heading into the offseason.
They do still have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. They also have Tyler Glasnow under contract for one more season, although at $25 million, they might have to at least consider trading him away.
It gets iffy in a hurry from there.
Does Zack Littell—who had started four games in his MLB career before this season—have the stamina to be a regular in the rotation? Can Taj Bradley—who entered the year as a highly touted prospect before posting a 5.59 ERA in the majors and a 6.45 ERA in Triple-A—cut the mustard in year No. 2? Will Baz be ready to go by Opening Day and able to pitch even half as dominantly as he did in the one-and-a-half seasons prior to the injury?
Or do they just embrace the opener strategy once again, hoping to get Springs and/or Rasmussen back for the second half of 2024, with a backup plan of trading for a starter or two in July if necessary?
Rays' Secondary Issue: What Will Become of Wander Franco?
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Wander Franco last appeared in a game for the Tampa Bay Rays on August 12. It's unclear at this point if the 22-year-old shortstop will ever be allowed to play in MLB again following allegations that he had an inappropriate relationship with a minor.
How do the small-market Rays now navigate the uncertainty surrounding the player whom they signed to an 11-year, $182 million contract in November 2021?
Fortunately for the Rays, it's a back-loaded deal that doesn't even begin to balloon until 2025. Franco made $2.45 million in 2023 and is slated for the same amount in 2024, so they won't enter this offseason unsure of whether they'll be on the hook for a massive salary this coming season.
Still, for the purposes of multiyear negotiations—either with free agents or on the home front for possible extensions with Randy Arozarena, Shane McClanahan, Isaac Paredes, etc.—should they assume they will have/owe Franco for the duration of that contract, or will his $8.45 million in 2025, $15.45 million in 2026, $22.45 million in 2027 and $25.45 million for 2028-32 be voided?
Even just for next season, if Franco remains out of the picture, is Tampa Bay content with some combination of Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Junior Caminero at shortstop? Or will it need to bring in a free agent a la Amed Rosario, Isiah Kiner-Falefa or—if the White Sox decline their club option for him—Tim Anderson?
It's a difficult situation for a club that doesn't exactly have money to burn—and even less than usual this year if they hang onto Tyler Glasnow and the $25 million he is owed in 2024.
Top Offseason Issues for the Other Playoff Teams Already Eliminated
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Atlanta Braves: What's the state of the starting rotation?
Spencer Strider isn't going anywhere any time soon, and the hope is that Max Fried will be healthier in 2024 for what will be his final season before hitting free agency.
But Charlie Morton turns 40 in a few weeks. Kyle Wright is expected to miss all of next season after recently undergoing shoulder surgery. Bryce Elder dropped off a cliff in the second half of the year.
So...AJ Smith-Shawver to the rescue as a 20-year-old who has yet to log 90 innings in a season? Pray that Michael Soroka gets and stays healthy for the first time since 2019? Or just plan on out-homering everyone to a ridiculous degree once again with a lineup where everyone except for Kevin Pillar will be back?
Yeah, probably that latter option. However, the starting rotation is definitely a concern, and there's likely not room in Atlanta's budget to fix the problem by getting one of those biggest names in this year's free agent class.
Miami Marlins: Who else gets on base in 2024?
With the narrow exception of trade-deadline acquisition Jake Burger, Luis Arraez had a higher batting average (.354) than any other Marlin's on-base percentage in 2023. (Burger's OBP with Miami was .355.) As a result, they scored the fewest runs in the National League, despite having the player who posted MLB's highest 162-game single-season batting average since 2010.
Worse yet, with Jorge Soler likely to decline his $9 million player option for next season, they're about to lose their best slugger.
They need to add multiple reliable bats this offseason to build upon their surprising trip to the postseason.
Milwaukee Brewers: Trade away some big names or go down with the ship?
Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Adrian Houser, Mark Canha and Andrew Chafin all have one year remaining before hitting free agency, plus possibly Wade Miley, who has a $10 million mutual option for 2024.
Do the Brewers run it back again with mostly the same roster—though, hopefully a better designated hitter than Jesse Winker—to try to win the first World Series in franchise history, or do they try to trade away the bulk of those impending free agents in hopes of preemptively combatting the colossal rebuild coming their way next offseason?
(For the record, I say go for broke and try to win it all in 2024, even though I've been asking this question on at least a monthly basis since last winter. The window is closing fast, but there's no telling when the Brewers will be in a position to have a title contender again.)
Minnesota Twins: Rebuilding the starting rotation
Between Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Dallas Keuchel and one-time-opener Emilio Pagan, the Minnesota Twins are slated to lose 64 of their starts from this season to free agency.
They do still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, which is a better 2024 pitching nucleus than quite a few teams can presently boast. But if they're unable to re-sign Gray, they drop from maybe the best starting rotation in 2023 to one that wouldn't pack anywhere near the same punch heading into next season.
Combine that with likely losing Michael A. Taylor's glove in center and Donovan Solano's .282 batting average at first, and the Twins have a busy offseason ahead if they expect to repeat as AL Central champs.
Toronto Blue Jays: Time to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to long-term deals?
Matt Chapman, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier and Jordan Hicks are all unrestricted free agents, and it's highly unlikely Toronto brings back Whit Merrifield via that $18 million mutual option. So the Blue Jays have quite a few holes to fill.
They also only have two years of team control remaining on 24-year-old first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and 25-year-old shortstop Bo Bichette and might want to re-budget some of those expiring contracts into long-term deals for those young stars—if it's not already too late for them to afford it.
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