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Broncos vs. Chiefs: Updated Odds, Money Line, Spread, Props to Watch for TNF

Kristopher KnoxOct 12, 2023

Week 6 has arrived, and the Denver Broncos will kick it off with a trip to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

This rivalry hasn't been kind to the Broncos, who haven't beaten the Chiefs since 2015. There are two very familiar opponents, though, and it should still be an intense, heated and physical matchup.

Fans looking to make the game a little more interesting will have no shortage of betting options. This could add a little more drama to a contest in which Kansas City is heavily favored.

Below, you'll find a look at the latest odds, our predictions, and some player props to consider for Thursday night.


Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Date: Thursday, October 12

When: 8:15 p.m. ET

Live Stream and TV: Prime Video (ABC and NBC in Local Markets)

Line: Chiefs -10.5

Over/Under: 48 Points

Money Line: Chiefs -575 (bet $575 to win $100), Broncos +425 (bet $100 to win $425)

Preview and Prediction

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Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs, Peyton Manning was under center for Denver. Manning was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame two years ago.

It's truly been a lopsided rivalry in recent years, but Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is hoping to change that.

"We've got to create a new history," Wilson said, per John Riker of the team's official website. "We have to be able to do that with one play at a time, one moment at a time, one game at a time."

Motivational speeches are nice, but it's hard to believe that Denver will actually reverse the course of this series on Thursday. The Broncos defense has been atrocious this season and ranks dead-last in both yards and points allowed.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense haven't played consistently great football, but they'll find big plays against Denver.

Travis Kelce (ankle) could be limited, but he played through his injury last week and finished with 10 receptions, 67 yards and a touchdown. Even if the Kansas City passing attack doesn't get going, the Chiefs can lean on Isiah Pacheco and the ground game.

Denver is allowing a whopping 5.9 yards per carry.

If the Broncos are going to keep this one close, they're going to have to put points on the board frequently. Denver's offense has looked better under Sean Payton than it did in 2022, but Kansas City's defense is better than it was a year ago too.

The Chiefs are allowing just 301 yards and 16 points on average this season.

Denver may keep it interesting early, but the Chiefs have all the pieces needed to pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Broncos 24

Russell Wilson over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

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Broncos QB Russell Wilson
Broncos QB Russell Wilson

The Broncos have to find the end zone to have any chance in this game, and most of the pressure will be on Wilson.

The good news for Denver fans is that the 34-year-old has been markedly better under Payton than he was under Nathaniel Hackett. He's made the occasional mistake, but he's thrown for 11 touchdowns with two interceptions and a 106.1 passer rating.

It would seem that the Broncos' plan to return Wilson to the Pro Bowl form he had with the Seattle Seahawks is paying off.

Wilson is +165 (bet $100 to win $165) to throw at least two touchdowns on Thursday. If he can't hit that mark, the Broncos will have no chance. Kansas City isn't allowing a lot of points, but it's been especially stingy against red-zone runners.

The Chiefs have allowed just one rushing touchdown through five games.

Wilson has thrown two or more touchdown passes in four of five games, and he should do so again in Kansas City.

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Isiah Pacheco over 75.5 Rushing Yards

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Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco is -120 (bet $120 to win $100) to hit the over here, and there's a very good chance that he does.

While Pacheco has only topped 75 rushing yards once this season, he's been the clear leader of Kansas City's backfield. Pacheco has logged 71 carries while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is second on the team with only 28.

Denver's putrid run defense is a real problem for the Broncos and a real boon for fans taking the over here. If Denver continues coughing up more than five yards per carry, Pacheco will only need to log 15 carries to hit on this prop.

Pacheco has carried 15 or more times in each of the last three games.

The other factor to consider here is the reality that Kansas City may go up big early. If it does, it will likely look to close things out on the ground, which could lead to even more rushing opportunities for Pacheco. He recorded 20 carries in the Week 4 win over the New York Jets and finished with 115 yards on the ground.


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