Which NBA Supermax Contracts Will Look Worst When They're Done?
The max an NBA player can sign for is dictated by how many years he's been in the league.
A player with fewer than seven years of experience can sign for 25 percent of the league's salary cap (currently at $136 million). Those with 7-9 years can sign for up to 30 percent, and veterans with 10 years or more can reach 35 percent of the cap.
In some cases, though, a player can qualify ahead of schedule for what is often referred to as a "supermax" contract.
In some cases, just because a player qualifies, that doesn't mean the team should pay them that higher salary. It's all negotiable, but market pressures often lead franchises to give out as much as possible to ensure they retain the league's top stars.
In other cases, some miscalculate and overpay good talent like they're superstars.
Of the current supermax deals on the books, which contracts will look the worst when they're done?
Let's take a look, starting with the ones we're less worried about and building up to the ones with most concern.
Technicalities
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Technically, supermax reflects a player with 7-9 years of service signing at the 35 percent maximum. But informally, it's used to include those coming off rookie-scale contracts earning the 30 percent max.
For this analysis, supermax will be used for both scenarios.
Additionally, the rookie-scale supermax can be agreed to on a maybe. The veteran supermax (for those in the 7-9 range) requires the player to prequalify. For example, Giannis Antetokounmpo signed the latter after winning Most Valuable Player, but others like Ja Morant, Zion Williamson and Darius Garland signed for up to 30 percent but ultimately didn't meet the criteria.
A year prior, Luka Dončić had qualified by earning All-NBA (first-team) honors in 2020 and 2021, while Trae Young signed in August 2021, but his higher salary didn't lock in until May 2022 with an All-NBA nod (third team).
Others who signed for but did not qualify for the higher max include Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
Players on rookie-scale extensions are eligible for the supermax, regardless of how often they've changed teams. Veterans only qualify if they haven't been traded after their fourth season, which is why Domantas Sabonis (after earning a second-team All-NBA honor) was not eligible in Sacramento with the Kings after a trade from the Indiana Pacers.
Finally, while an extension adding five additional years is technically a six-year extension, the former will be utilized.
No. 14: Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Whatever the Milwaukee Bucks are paying Antetokounmpo is worth it. He's won two league MVP awards and brought the 2020-21 title to the city. He remains one of the NBA's top stars, even if the Bucks haven't been able to advance back to the Finals since 2021.
Antetokounmpo extended at the 35 percent max in 2020 after his MVP, starting at $39.3 million. He's under contract through 2025-26, though he can opt out after next season. And while he's extension eligible until the start of the regular season, he may not decide on his long-term fate until next summer.
The Bucks, ever mindful of Antetokounmpo's contract situation, made a huge acquisition this summer (Damian Lillard) to simultaneously help the roster get back to a championship level and give their top star a reason to sign another extension.
Milwaukee's payroll may be a bit extreme for a smaller-market franchise, but ownership hasn't blinked yet.
No. 13: Nikola Jokić
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Nikola Jokić and Antetokounmpo have similar career arcs with back-to-back MVP awards and one NBA title apiece. The Denver Nuggets are reigning titleholders, and with that, Jokić is arguably the best player in the league.
Jokić extended last summer, which kicked in this season at 35 percent of the cap ($47.6 million). He has five years on his deal, though he can opt out of his $62.8 million before the 2027-28 season. His $276.1 million contract is a staggering figure, but that's the NBA's economy.
Denver isn't likely to regret its investment, though Jokić will be 33 in the final year of his contract. Antetokounmpo will be younger (31) when his supermax deal comes to an end (provided he doesn't opt out).
No. 12 Luka Dončić
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The Dallas Mavericks have, arguably, the brightest young star in the league in Dončić (24). The team needs to figure out how to properly build around him for sustained playoff success. That didn't happen last year, but Dallas is more optimistic as an organization for the coming campaign.
The concern isn't for Dončić's supermax, but will he want to stick around for another extension if the Mavericks don't start winning?
Meanwhile, Dončić signed at 30 percent of the cap, which started at $37.1 million in the 2022-23 season. He'll earn $49 million in 2026-27 (player option)—a reasonable rate for one of the league's top players.
No. 11: Devin Booker
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New Phoenix Suns governor Mat Ishbia doesn't seem concerned with how expensive his roster might be or how it'll work in a few years as Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal age (given all the draft capital he gave up to build this potential super team).
But Ishbia technically inherited Devin Booker's supermax contract, and the still-young guard (almost 27) may outlast the older Durant and Beal on the Suns' roster. Booker extended last July at 35 percent of the cap, starting in 2024-25 at a projected $49.7 million. He was eligible after his All-NBA nod (first team) in 2022.
Because he had two years left on his deal at the time, he could only add four seasons, taking him through the 2027-28 campaign when he'll be 31. His age at the end of the deal makes him a safer bet, but Booker's final year is massive—an estimated $61.6 million.
No. 10 Joel Embiid
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Joel Embiid is the reigning league MVP, and yet the Philadelphia 76ers have annually underperformed (relative to expectations) in the playoffs with a second-round exit in nearly all of the last six seasons.
And unlike fellow MVPs Antetokounmpo and Jokić, Embiid doesn't have the title on his resume.
Perhaps incoming head coach Nick Nurse will guide the team to a better result. Still, the franchise is dealing with uncertainty surrounding James Harden and his desire to play elsewhere (via trade, though if that doesn't happen, he'll be an unrestricted free agent next summer).
Embiid's extension starts this season at 35 percent of the cap ($47.6 million), signed in 2021 after his All-NBA recognition (second team). Since he signed relatively early, he was only eligible to add on four additional seasons, so his current deal expires after the 2026-27 season (player option) when he's 33.
Age and injury history make him a higher risk than some of the aforementioned stars.
No. 9: Tyrese Haliburton
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Tyrese Haliburton headlines the most recent supermaxes handed out to the NBA's 2020 draft class.
Is he a better player or a safer bet than Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball? It's certainly subjective, but of the young players who have recently entered the league, Haliburton is the closest to the Chris Paul/Jason Kidd true point guard archetype.
Unlike Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, who are scorers first (even though Ball is a talented playmaker), Haliburton is an elite pass-first guard. With that, he could have more longevity in his career than his more explosive, athletic contemporaries.
The Pacers believe Haliburton is a franchise cornerstone, and he still has to earn that jump from the 25 percent max to 30 percent with an MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA season.
The last option may be in reach but won't be determined until after the 2023-24 campaign.
No. 8: Trae Young
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Trae Young is a polarizing figure in NBA circles. He's extremely talented, but many wonder if he can lead a team to deep playoff success at his height and build (6'1", 164 pounds). Some view him as a defensive liability who doesn't play well off the ball.
But Young helped lead his team to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, and while the Hawks lost in the first round this past season, the team was competitive and took the Boston Celtics to six games.
The Hawks seemed determined to make it work with Young, hoping to accentuate his positives and offset his weaknesses.
He's also an expensive player, qualifying for the 30 percent max (starting in 2022 at $37.1 million) with an All-NBA honor (third team) in 2021. His contract climbs to $49 million for 2026-27, a player option, which may be too rich for many teams should Atlanta decide to go in a different direction.
In the meantime, the Hawks acquired Dejounte Murray last summer—also an NBA point guard—and gave him a standard extension in July. So, this story isn't necessarily complete, and Young's ranking on this list is somewhat tricky to gauge.
No. 7: Anthony Edwards
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The Minnesota Timberwolves are well-represented on this list, with three (potential) supermax players—which is bold for one of the league's mid-tier markets.
The NBA has made the rules increasingly restrictive for high spenders, and the Wolves have Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Edwards on significant contracts (plus, Jaden McDaniels is still eligible for an extension before the regular season).
Edwards, 22, may be the last of the three standing in Minnesota. In the short term, the franchise will closely evaluate if the current core is worth maintaining. But Edwards is the youngest and cheapest, signing in July for up to 30 percent of next year's cap (projected to be $42.6 million).
He has to qualify first (All-NBA, MVP, Defensive Player of the Year), which may not be likely. It would be better for the Wolves if he doesn't, with his salary starting instead at the 25 percent max ($35.5 million, projected).
None of this is to say that he's not a talented or special player. It's just that the franchise has had limited playoff success, doesn't have much draft currency (primarily given up to get Gobert) and has a lot of payroll on the books. If Edwards comes in at that higher figure, he could lead the team to changes sooner rather than later.
No. 6 Pascal Siakam
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Nearing the potential "worst" supermax contracts, Pascal Siakam's deal in Toronto with the Raptors is not egregious—even the next few aren't terribly risky. He signed a rare four-year extension in 2019 (instead of the standard five) and qualified for a previously negotiated 28 percent of the cap ($30.6 million instead of the 25 percent $27.3 million) by earning an All-NBA ranking (second team) for 2019-20.
Siakam has remained one of the Raptors' best players, but the team hasn't had any significant playoff success in the past three years. Is that on his shoulders? Did the franchise get the most out of its resources, including what they invested in the No. 27 pick of 2016?
The biggest question is: What's next for Toronto and Siakam? He's eligible for a contract extension, but there's no recent buzz that a deal is close. Will the team let him walk after this year as Fred VanVleet did this summer (leaving for the Houston Rockets as an unrestricted free agent), or will the Raptors trade him first or just reinvest long-term?
No 5. Jaylen Brown
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Jaylen Brown and the Celtics are an interesting test case. The team didn't have to give Brown a supermax. The most he could have gotten anywhere else was the regular 30 percent max. But the team wanted to keep its core intact and happy (outside of Marcus Smart, gone to the Memphis Grizzlies).
The Celtics were two wins away from the title in 2022 and have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in five of the last seven seasons (non-coincidentally, the number of years Brown has been in the league and with the team).
Brown signed his supermax in late July (qualifying via his 2022-23 second-team All-NBA honor), locking in 35 percent of the cap for the 2024-25 season ($49.7 million, projected). He'll finish his contract after the 2028-29 season (at a projected $65.6 million) for a total, including this year, of $320 million.
That's a win for the National Basketball Players Association, agents and players. Whether it's the right move or not for the Celtics remains to be seen. Brown will turn 27 before the start of the season, putting him as a very expensive 32-year-old near the start of his final season. That inherently makes him a greater risk than most.
No. 4: LaMelo Ball
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The Charlotte Hornets have not been a good team for a very long time. Outside of a seven-game first-round loss in 2016 to the Miami Heat, the franchise has zero playoff wins (in two appearances) dating back to the 2002 postseason.
While the team didn't make the playoffs in 2021-22 (losing in the play-in), the 43 wins suggest the Hornets were trending in the right direction. But Ball broke his ankle in February, and the team took a step backward, winning just 27 games.
The market seemingly dictated that Charlotte give Ball the max, which is a lot for a team that may still not be very good—but that he could earn up to 30 percent ($42.6 million) isn't ideal. Several smaller-market teams are not in love with the rule that allows (and arguably obligates) teams to overpay young players after just three seasons.
Like Haliburton and Edwards, Ball may not be on this list next year. He would need to be named to an All-NBA team to reach that higher figure, which doesn't seem likely at this early stage of the 2023-24 preseason. If he somehow earned league MVP or, shockingly, Defensive Player of the Year, something went very right with Ball in Charlotte this season.
Ball's higher ranking is relative to his yet-to-be-proven ability to help his team consistently win at a high level.
No. 3: Karl-Anthony Towns
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Towns is at a career crossroads. He's a three-time All-Star (most recently in 2021-22) but has struggled to stay healthy, notably with a severe calf injury that limited him to 29 games last season.
The team has won four total playoff games in three appearances through eight seasons with the Timberwolves. Is Towns a player who can lead to postseason success, or is he destined to be an outstanding player on a positively mediocre franchise?
The future isn't written, and Towns could prove this ranking to be poorly founded. In the meantime, his supermax extension hasn't even started yet. He signed last July at 35 percent of the cap, which projects to be $49.7 million next season (up from his current $36 million) running through 2027-28 (player option before the final year).
Towns was eligible for the larger figure because of an All-NBA ranking (third team) for 2021-22. Hopefully, for Minnesota, his best years are ahead of him, as he's still just turning 28 in mid-November.
No. 2: Rudy Gobert
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Credit to the Utah Jazz for getting tremendous value for Gobert last summer (Walker Kessler, a handful of first-round picks, etc.) from the Timberwolves. Gobert is one of the league's better rim protectors in the NBA, but the Wolves gave up too much for him and still owe him $131.5 million over the next three years (player option on the final season).
While he has three Defensive Player of the Year awards, Gobert qualified for his supermax extension in 2020 by an All-NBA ranking (third team) for the 2019-20 season. Still, the number isn't as egregious as it could have been, as his bump was from 30 percent of the cap to just 31.4 percent (instead of the total 35 percent allowed in negotiations).
And that salary didn't go to waste in Utah as Gobert continued as an All-Star and All-Defensive first-team winner, but the team built around Mitchell and Gobert ran its course—with the Jazz wisely selling early.
Gobert was fine through his first year in Minnesota, averaging 13.4 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game (down from his last few years). The team made the playoffs (barely, and not without turmoil) before getting dropped in five games by the champion Denver Nuggets.
Does Gobert make the Timberwolves a contender in the West? Does he fit with Towns? Given how much the team gave up and what's left of his supermax contract, he better.
No. 1: Ben Simmons
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Is this the Ben Simmons redemption season?
The Philadelphia 76ers gave Simmons a massive extension in 2019, with the potential to reach as much as 30 percent of the cap ($32.7 million). He didn't quite reach the contract's full potential, but with an All-NBA ranking (third team), his 2020-21 salary jumped from the 25 percent max ($27.3 million) to 28 percent of the cap ($30.6 million).
After that first season on his new deal, Simmons and the Sixers famously had a falling out. He initially held out, then showed up at camp but didn't participate because of a back injury. The financial dispute was later settled before arbitration, and he was dealt to the Brooklyn Nets.
He didn't play in any of the 2021-22 season, reached 42 games last year for Brooklyn—but could be the team's starting point guard this coming campaign (TBD). Simmons is still owed $78.2 million over the next two seasons, which is staggering given his production last year (6.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game).
Philadelphia gave him that huge deal despite his apparent flaws (no outside shot, poor free-throw shooting) because of his ability to playmake and defend. He should provide more for the Nets than last season, but he's undoubtedly the NBA's most regrettable supermax contract.
