NFL Week 5 Odds: Building the Best Parlay for Sunday's Games
With the first month of the 2023 NFL season complete, we have an idea of just how unpredictable this year could be.
There's a wide group of middle-tier teams and exactly two undefeated squads in the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles. Of the latter two, only the 49ers have impressed in every win.
Now, San Francisco is set to battle the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has been equally impressive in three out of four weeks. There's a chance that no undefeated teams will remain by Monday morning.
Betting any game is a risk, so it might make more sense to go big and package picks into a potentially profitable parlay. We'll do precisely that here and dive into a three-leg parlay for Sunday's action.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Dolphins -11 Versus Giants (-110)
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This is a very large line, which can be risky. We saw the Kansas City Chiefs fail to cover a big one last Sunday night when quarterback Patrick Mahomes slid short of the goal line in order to run out the clock—which was, by the way, the smart football move.
The Miami Dolphins are poised to cover against a New York Giants team that appears to lack direction. Miami suffered its first defeat in Week 4, but that came on the road against the rival Buffalo Bills and in a very disruptive environment.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins shouldn't face communication issues at home, and they should carve up a Giants defense ranked 27th in yards per pass attempt and 21st in yards per rush allowed.
It's also hard to see Daniel Jones and the Giants keeping pace on the scoreboard. Even if Saquon Barkley is back, New York lacks the offensive playmakers for a track meet. New York has averaged just 11.5 points per game, even after a 31-point explosion in Week 2.
Miami has only won one game in blowout fashion this season, but this one shouldn't be close.
Under 44.5 Points in Bengals-Cardinals (-110)
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A bet that the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals game will feature a lot of scoring is a bet that Joe Burrow will return to Pro Bowl form on Sunday. Burrow has been battling a calf injury all season, and the Cincinnati offense has suffered.
The Bengals are averaging just over 12 points per game and have yet to score a touchdown on the road. Cincinnati has topped 20 points only once this season.
It's hard to believe that Burrow will suddenly be healthy or that Cincinnati is set to surge offensively—even if Burrow insists that he's feeling better.
"Best I've felt after a game, so I'm optimistic," Burrow told reporters on Wednesday.
Joshua Dobbs, James Conner and the Cardinals offense have been effective, but Arizona hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. The Cardinals have averaged 22 points per game, thanks in part to their run-first ball-control offense.
Even if the Bengals find enough juice to win this one, it should be a relatively low-scoring contest. Three of Cincinnati's four games have failed to reach 40 points.
Over 43.5 Points in Jets-Broncos (-105)
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Before the season, this looked like a surefire defensive battle. However, the defenses of the New York Jets and Denver Broncos have not played as well as they did a year ago.
The Jets have been respectable but have allowed 21 points per game after allowing just over 18 points per game in 2022.
The Broncos defense has been terrible, allowing an average of 5.6 yards per rush, 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 37.5 points per game. Over the past three weeks, Denver has allowed no fewer than 28 points.
Zach Wilson, Breece Hall and the Jets shouldn't have too much trouble moving the ball on Denver, while Russell Wilson and the resurgent Broncos offense will have their moments.
There should be plenty of scoring too. The Broncos are allowing an 81.3-percent red-zone touchdown rate, according to Pro Football Reference while scoring touchdowns on 57.1 percent of their red-zone trips.
It may be hard to envision the Jets offense playing well, but it showed signs of life against the Chiefs on Sunday night and can continue building momentum against the Broncos.
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Three-Leg Parlay (+611)
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Combining these three bets will create a parlay with +611 odds (bet $100 to win $611). That's an enticing payout that involves less financial risk than betting all three individually.
The Jets-Broncos over/under may be the riskiest leg of the parlay. If Denver's defense did indeed figure things out during last week's comeback win over the Chicago Bears—or New York's offense reverts to pre-Week 4 form—it could be a low-scoring affair.
However, Denver's defense has looked serviceable exactly once this season, against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. The final leg of the parlay should cash.
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