B/R NHL Staff Roundtable: 2024 Stanley Cup and Regular-Season Award Predictions
Logan Cooley's viral goal. A trip to Australia. Erik Karlsson in a Pittsburgh uniform. Connor. Bedard.
(We don't care if his first goal was only an empty-netter. Give us all the hype and excitement.)
It's been a fun preseason, but the NHL world is ready for the real thing as the puck drops on the regular season Tuesday. Before that happens, B/R's NHL crew is ready with predictions for all the major awards and then some.
Can anyone top Bedard for the Calder Trophy as the league's Rookie of the Year? Who will challenge reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor McDavid for the title of NHL MVP?
Scroll on for our thoughts on who'll win the Stanley Cup and other awards for the 2023-24 season.
Hart Trophy (NHL MVP): Connor McDavid
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Entering his ninth NHL season, center Connor McDavid remains the league's top star. Having won his third Hart Memorial Trophy in 2022-23 with a career-best, league-leading 153-point performance, the 26-year-old Edmonton Oilers captain is the favorite to take home that award this season.
With each year, McDavid takes his game to new heights. Already established as a dazzling, high-speed playmaker, he proved last season that he could also dominate as a goal scorer. His 64 goals were the most in a single campaign since Washington's Alex Ovechkin tallied 65 in 2007-08, earning McDavid his first Maurice Richard Trophy.
As a multiple-time winner of the Hart Trophy, a five-time winner of the Art Ross Trophy and a four-time winner of the Ted Lindsay Award, McDavid has earned his place among the game's great players. However, he returns to action this season determined to cement his legacy by leading the Oilers to their first Stanley Cup since 1990.
McDavid has already established his greatness up to this point in his career. With the Oilers superstar focused on elevating his game even higher in pursuit of his first Stanley Cup ring, he's poised for what could be his best season yet.
—Lyle Richardson
Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman): Cale Makar
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What Erik Karlsson did to win the Norris Trophy last season was remarkable. Defensemen just don't score 100 points anymore, and when they do, they deserve the accolades.
Here's the funny thing, though: Had Cale Makar not missed 22 games last season, he would've been able to make it a very tight vote for the award. He had 66 points in 60 games, including 17 goals. And now that we're about to kick off a new season, he's healthy again, and it would be safe to say he's not going to be very different than the player we've watched take the NHL by storm.
He scored points at virtually the same pace last season (1.10 points per game) as he did during his Norris Trophy campaign two years ago (1.12 points per game), and Colorado is going to be an extremely good team once again in the Western Conference.
Makar will have a ton of competition because Karlsson will be an electrifying show in Pittsburgh, Adam Fox is out-of-this-world good, and pick any of Miro Heiskanen, Dougie Hamilton, Josh Morrissey, Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Hedman, Roman Josi, Hampus Lindholm, Quinn Hughes and Vince Dunn's names out of a hat to fill out the rest of the ballot. But Makar is the guy everyone wants their top defensemen to be in how they control the puck and control the game itself.
—Joe Yerdon
Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie): Ilya Sorokin
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Thanks in large part to Ilya Sorokin's goaltending, the low-scoring New York Islanders squeaked into the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. He also helped the Isles push the Carolina Hurricanes to six games before bowing out of the first round.
Sorokin's performance during the 2022-23 regular season made him runner-up to the Boston Bruins' Linus Ullmark for the Vezina Trophy as the NHL's top goaltender. This season will see the 28-year-old Islanders' netminder take home that prestigious award for the first time.
Since making his NHL debut during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, Sorokin has established himself among the league's top goalies. Over those three seasons, he led the league with 16 shutouts. Sorokin also had the second-best save percentage (.924) and goals-against average (2.34) among netminders with at least 100 games played.
Sorokin hasn't had the benefit of a stingy defense in front of him over the past two seasons, facing the fifth-highest shots-against (3,481) during that period. Even if Isles' overall play improves this season, their 27-year-old starter should continue to elevate his play. He remains the crucial piece to the Islanders' playoff hopes.
—Lyle Richardson
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Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year): Connor Bedard
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Look, we haven't seen a No. 1 overall draft pick with Connor Bedard's numbers and potential in some time (dare I say since the previous Connor?). And no, winning the Calder Trophy clearly doesn't guarantee a prolific career—or even the most prolific career among that particular rookie class. Additionally, there are a few strong Calder contenders in the 2023-24 NHL rookie pool.
Devon Levi's potential in net gives me the most pause: The opportunity to be Buffalo's No. 1 goalie is almost wide open for him, he's had immediate success at every level, he's touted for his calmness, and he could come in and make a serious impact on the complexion of this Sabres team—potentially the impact that ends their league-longest playoff drought. But the goaltender position is the most unpredictable, both on the ice and when it comes to Calder voting.
Save for some whiffs and jitters, Bedard's preseason showed us two things: 1. He is extremely NHL ready, and 2. the Blackhawks will be giving him free rein, plenty of time on ice and support via linemates.
Context and projections considered, as boring as it might be, it's tough to bet against Bedard winning the 2023-24 Calder Trophy.
—Sara Civian
Selke Trophy (Best Defensive Forward): Joel Eriksson Ek
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For years, predicting the winner of the Selke Award was a formality. Patrice Bergeron is the best defensive forward to have ever played hockey. The future Hall of Famer won the award each of the previous two seasons and six times total.
Bergeron's retirement means that the race for this award is wide-open. Before predicting the winner, let's first analyze what it takes to win this award.
The next Selke winner is likely to be a center. It's a more prominent position with greater responsibilities. Jere Lehtinen (2003) was the last winger to win the award. More specifically, one needs to be a center who plays tough minutes against the opposition's top players.
While there are a number of viable Selke candidates heading into the season, the pick here is Joel Eriksson Ek. Per Evolving Hockey, Eriksson Ek ranks eighth among all forwards by defensive Goals Above Replacement over the last four seasons. Now 26, Eriksson Ek is entering his prime, and his defensive play should only improve.
Minnesota's other centers are the offensive-minded Ryan Hartman, rookie Marco Rossi and depth forward Connor Dewar. In order for head coach Dean Evason to maximize Kirill Kaprizov line's offensive opportunities, he'll have to rely on Eriksson Ek's line, alongside strong defensive wingers Matt Boldy and Marcus Johansson, to take on the toughest defensive minutes.
The Selke Award is largely about reputations. With Bergeron out of the league, it's time for new players to capture leaguewide attention. Look for Eriksson Ek to become a household name on the defensive side of the puck.
—Adam Herman
Maurice Richard Trophy (Top Goal Scorer): Connor McDavid
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Before last season, Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid was known primarily for his amazing playmaking skills. That ability served him well since his NHL debut in 2015-16 as he leads the league in total assists with 547. That's made him a five-time winner of the Art Ross Trophy as the league's top scorer.
While McDavid was always an impressive goal scorer, he never led the league in that category, preferring instead to assist his teammates. That changed last season when he won his first Maurice Richard Trophy with a league-leading 64 goals. He became the first player to reach that total in a season since Washington's Alex Ovechkin hit 65 in 2007-08.
Prior to that performance, McDavid had never scored more than 44 goals in a season. The stunning 20-goal increase in 2022-23 was part of the Oilers' superstar taking his game to another level. In the prime of his career and determined to win his first Stanley Cup this season, we can't rule out a run at 70 goals this season.
McDavid will undoubtedly be challenged by recent former Richard winners such as Toronto's Auston Matthews (2021, 2022) and Boston's David Pastrnak (2020). Both have also reached the rarified air of 60 goals. However, the Oilers captain will fend them off on his way to even greater heights.
—Lyle Richardson
Jack Adams Award (Best Coach): Pete DeBoer
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Predicting the Jack Adams Award winner is more of an art than a science. The best coaching job isn't self-evident in the numbers in the way that, say, best defenseman or best goaltender might be.
Sometimes, yes, a head coach like Jim Montgomery leads the Bruins toward a season so dominant that he's the clear-cut winner, such as in 2023. Other times, like when John Tortorella won the award in 2017, the Blue Jackets' finishing fourth in the conference was much more success than anyone expected of them. Winning the Jack Adams is often not only about doing a good job as head coach, but also taking a team to new, perhaps unexpected levels.
The Western Conference has three teams ahead of the pack. One team is the Oilers, who have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Another is the Vegas Golden Knights, who won the Stanley Cup.
And then there are the Dallas Stars, who are very skilled but lack generational talent and finished fourth in the conference last season. They still have the dominant Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Joe Pavelski line, added Matt Duchene at a bargain price, and will hopefully get a full season from at least one of Nils Lundkvist and Thomas Harley, who are two top defensive prospects.
Head coach Pete DeBoer has a lot of talent to work with in Dallas at forward, defense and in goal. The Stars could very well win the Western Conference. Let's pick DeBoer for this award.
—Adam Herman
Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award: Tom Fitzgerald, New Jersey Devils
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Tom Fitzgerald was a clear snub from last season's finalists for General Manager of the Year after his New Jersey Devils improved by 49 points—the largest turnaround in NHL history. But that doesn't mean this year's Jim Gregory Award will be some sort of makeup call, even if the award is essentially a culmination of years' worth of work.
The 17-year NHL veteran got to work on his case for the accolade before free agency hit this offseason. He inked Timo Meier, last year's big trade-deadline acquisition, to an eight-year, $70.4 million pact. Fitzgerald also kept Jesper Bratt from restricted free agency with an eight-year deal worth $7.9 million per season. Those moves and the addition of Tyler Toffoli solidified an electric forward group that includes budding superstar Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.
Sure, there were some blue-line losses in Damon Severson and Ryan Graves. But Fitzgerald draftee Luke Hughes could grab some down-ballot votes in the Calder race and supplement a group led by Dougie Hamilton, another of the GM's previous signees.
Cap space is tight at just $1.2 million, but perhaps they can use some of that forward depth to help solidify their goaltending (Connor Hellebuyck, anyone?) if Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid don't cut it. That could mean a trip to the top of the standings—and by extension help seal Fitzgerald's case for the Gregory Award.
—Jason Dunbar
Presidents' Trophy: Carolina Hurricanes
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Let's face it, hockey fans.
There are a lot of teams that could win the Presidents' Trophy and surprise no one.
If you told anyone the Edmonton Oilers would win 50-plus games from the Pacific Division and do it, ho hum. If you suggested either the Dallas Stars or Colorado Avalanche would run roughshod over the Central and emerge as the regular season's best, so what.
And if your contention was that the Toronto Maple Leafs would pick up where the Boston Bruins left off last season and capture the trophy out of the Atlantic, few eyebrows would raise.
There's another team that'll fit that predictable bill, too: the Carolina Hurricanes.
Only the Bruins, Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning have racked up more points over the last five seasons than coach Rod Brind'Amour's Hurricanes, who were second only to the record-setting Bruins in points, wins, goals-against average and penalty-killing percentage last season. Boston will take a step back this season. Carolina won't.
It's hardly the only trophy that fans in Raleigh and beyond are looking for in 2023-24, but the Hurricanes are the safest bet to at least have a hardware hoist in April. Book it.
—Lyle Fitzsimmons
Worst Team: San Jose Sharks
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This one won't be quite as difficult as the flip side.
Though plenty of NHL teams this season could kindly be described as inferior, none look so challenged at the start of the 2023-24 schedule as the San Jose Sharks.
The Sharks were just two points better than the cellar-dwelling Anaheim Ducks across 82 games last season, and that was when Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and his 101 points were wearing teal, orange, white and black.
So now that the league's most prolific defenseman is off to Pittsburgh, it looks even bleaker.
San Jose's projected top six include few players who'll keep coaches up nights, and when your prized goaltending acquisition (Mackenzie Blackwood) managed just a 3.20 goals-against average and .893 save percentage with the league's No. 3 overall team, well...meh.
Coach David Quinn celebrated just 22 wins in 82 games across his first season with the Sharks and there's not much to suggest it'll be even that good this time around.
—Lyle Fitzsimmons
Stanley Cup Predictions
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In my prediction of Connor McDavid winning the Hart Trophy, I noted that the Edmonton Oilers captain is determined this season to cement his legacy among the NHL's all-time greats by winning the Stanley Cup. Led by their superstar captain, the Oilers could win their first Cup since 1990.
After reaching the 2022 Western Conference Final, McDavid and his teammates felt last season was going to be their year. Instead, they were upset in the second round of the 2023 playoffs by the Vegas Golden Knights, who went on to become Stanley Cup champions.
Following that series, McDavid told reporters that he believed his club missed an opportunity to finally break through. Fellow Oilers superstar Leon Draisaitl felt it was a failure and a wasted year.
Expect McDavid, Draisaitl and their teammates to channel the pain of losing to the Golden Knights into a season-long focus on winning the Stanley Cup.
Their goaltending should improve with Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell jockeying for the starter's job. Their defense will benefit from a full season with trade-deadline pickup Mattias Ekholm and an improved Evan Bouchard. Expect winger Evander Kane to regain his scoring form after making a full recovery from the wrist injury that cost him half of last season.
—Lyle Richardson
Maybe it's a Lyle thing. Or maybe the Edmonton Oilers are just that good.
Either way, there's zero hesitation here as I slide in alongside my esteemed colleague and echo the suggestion that Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers will hoist next June.
Why? Well, it's simple. Nos. 97 and 29 will do their collective thing and probably collect a bevy of individual hardware come awards night in the spring. But the reason a sixth banner will be hung in northern Alberta's "City of Champions" centers more around the things that guys acquired more recently by veteran general manager Ken Holland achieve.
Ekholm arrived via trade from Nashville and immediately shored up the blue line down the stretch last season, and having him for a full 82 games (or at least most of them, given a training camp injury) can't help but improve things on the back end.
And Campbell had a terrific preseason in a bid to regain the starter's net after 2022-23's flop, so even splitting the difference between his regular season (.888) and playoff (.961) save percentages would bridge the gap between Edmonton and the rest of the league.
They've lost to the eventual Cup champions in two straight playoffs. But provided everyone stays reasonably healthy through the regular season gauntlet, it's the Oilers' time to shine.
—Lyle Fitzsimmons
Man, this year's Cup prediction feels particularly hard to nail down for some reason. Maybe it has something to do with the increasing parity around the league, some upsets last year causing trust issues, and the stark differences between the West and East.
Maybe it's also hard to believe any team will be able to dethrone the Vegas Golden Knights and their utter dominance on the way to the 2022-23 Stanley Cup.
But if anyone gave them a fight last postseason, it was the Edmonton Oilers. And although the Oilers didn't have an eventful offseason, the Mattias Ekholm trade deadline acquisition really rounded out the team. Then you've got the emergence of Evan Bouchard as an absolute force with a chance to break out as a top NHL defenseman next season. If Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can just keep it up and these additions continue to flourish, the Oilers can finally emerge from the West.
The East is trickier—I don't want to dethrone the Panthers, easier. But it feels silly to predict the same outcome twice with such parity in this conference, with so many bubble teams—Ottawa, Buffalo, Detroit to name a few—set to shake things up, anything could happen. I loved the growing confidence of the Devils and Jack Hughes last postseason, and with some of their Grade A offseason tweaks, I see no reason why it wouldn't be them. We'll have to see what goalie Akira Schmid is really made of, but if he has a big "prove yourself" year, I've got the Devils beating the Oilers in the 2023-24 Stanley Cup Final.
—Sara Civian
The Lightning drafted and developed their way to two Cups and three Finals. The Avalanche followed a similar path to a title. Now it's the Dallas Stars' turn. Their 2017 class produced a transcendent goal scorer and MVP candidate in Jason Robertson, a standout D-man in Miro Heiskanen and a difference-making goalie in Jake Oettinger, who's already been part of a deep postseason run.
But there are plenty of other shiny pennies among GM Jim Nill's hoard. Robertson, who just posted a 42-goal, 1.3 point-per-game season, shares a line with Joe Pavelski and star center Roope Hintz, forming one of the best three-man units in the league. Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn help give the Stars a formidable top six.
Sure, Heiskanen could use some offensive help on the blue line and the depth there is a question mark, but the experience from last year's Western Conference Final run and the top-end talent, particularly a ceiling-raising performance from Oettinger, will have the Cup returning to Dallas for the first time since 1999.
—Jason Dunbar
So much of what made the Vegas Golden Knights so good last season had to do with not just their talent and ability to make room on the roster with conveniently inconvenient injuries, but also how the depth they had within the organization turned out to be so, so good.
That kind of advantage is one that doesn't show itself until it's too late to prepare for it anyway, and Vegas was able to weather injuries to Mark Stone, Jack Eichel and Logan Thompson to just forge ahead and then overpower teams in the playoffs. And this season the Knights are running it back with virtually the same roster. Yes, they'll miss Reilly Smith, but the playoffs showed how players like Brett Howden and Ivan Barbashev can step up when called upon.
The Knights will have stiff competition atop the Western Conference with Edmonton, Dallas and Colorado, but at most they'll have to deal with two of those teams to get back to the Stanley Cup Final and then whoever is left from the slobber-knocker brawl for it all that the Eastern Conference playoffs will be.
Vegas is really good and Stanley Cup hangovers can be real...but I'm buying what they've already shown what they can do.
—Joe Yerdon
The Carolina Hurricanes are the top team in the NHL. They are also not my pick for the Stanley Cup. Never put too much emphasis on one playoff series, but the Hurricanes' four-straight losses to the Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final reinforced two questions: Does head coach Rod Brind'Amour's heavy forechecking style take a toll as the playoffs go the distance, and does the team have enough individual skill to edge out opponents during stalemates?
In line with my Jack Adams prediction, the Dallas Stars are primed to take another step. While the top line of Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski might not be able to match what McDavid and Draisaitl do, they are about as dominant of a trio as the NHL has. Heiskanen is a top defenseman.
The Stars are four lines deep and, with some luck in the developmental realm, should have three strong defensive pairings. The Edmonton Oilers' Achilles' heel has been and looks to still be its goaltending, whereas the Stars have a bona fide franchise netminder in Oettinger.
Dallas should face some tough competition in the Avalanche and Golden Knights as well. Still, their path out of the West still looks better than what should be a second straight season of Eastern Conference teams grinding each other to dust. Plus, General manager Jim Nill has all of Dallas' first-round picks and a strong prospect pool. He'll be in position to make a big addition or two at the trading deadline.
The Stars may not be the best team in the NHL, but they could be best primed to make a run for the Stanley Cup.
—Adam Herman
Total Votes: Edmonton Oilers 2, Dallas Stars 2, New Jersey Devils 1, Vegas Golden Knights 1
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