Final Blockbuster Trade Predictions for 2023 MLB Deadline Day
The 2023 MLB trade deadline is upon us.
Teams have until 6 p.m. ET Tuesday to finalize any deals. With no more August waiver-trade window, this is the last opportunity for contenders to put the finishing touches on their rosters for the stretch run.
A lot of the biggest dominoes have already either fallen or, in the case of Shohei Ohtani and anyone playing for the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, are likely no longer available on the trade block.
That said, there will still be plenty of activity on deadline day, and there could be some added potential for surprises in a market that has unfolded so quickly over the past week.
Ahead, you'll find one final round of predictions for the biggest deals that could still go down on deadline day.
These are not the only trades we are expecting to see on Tuesday, so don't feel slighted if your team doesn't get in on the action here, but these are the biggest moves we're predicting will go down.
Michael Lorenzen to the Baltimore Orioles
1 of 5
To BAL: RHP Michael Lorenzen
To DET: OF Dylan Beavers, RHP Justin Armbruester
In just two short years, the Baltimore Orioles have gone from 110 losses to the top of the AL East standings, and they are poised to make their first postseason appearance in seven years.
If the postseason started today, the O's would likely use the following rotation:
- RHP Kyle Gibson: 22 GS, 4.68 ERA, 127.0 IP
- RHP Dean Kremer: 22 GS, 4.66 ERA, 119.2 IP
- RHP Kyle Bradish: 19 GS, 3.29 ERA, 104.0 IP
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez: 13 GS, 6.21 ERA, 62.1 IP
Rodriguez has a 3.18 ERA over 17 innings in three starts since returning from a six-week stint in the minors, so his numbers are a bit deceiving, but this still illustrates the team's need for rotation help.
Now that Lucas Giolito and Jordan Montgomery have been traded, Michael Lorenzen is, arguably, the best rental starter on the market. The 31-year-old has a 3.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 105.2 innings, and he was the Detroit Tigers' lone All-Star representative this year.
In return, the Tigers get a promising power-hitting prospect in Dylan Beavers, who has an .826 OPS with 37 extra-base hits and 20 steals in 84 games at High-A after going No. 33 overall in the 2022 draft. With an abundance of young outfield talent, it's a cost the Orioles can afford to pay.
Right-hander Justin Armbruester adds to the offer as a quality depth arm on the cusp of reaching the big leagues. The 24-year-old lacks putaway stuff, but he has a 2.96 ERA in 82 innings in the upper levels of the minors.
Editor's Note: On Tuesday afternoon, the Tigers traded Lorenzen to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for 2B prospect Hao-Yu Lee, according to Jon Morosi of the MLB Network.
Eduardo Rodríguez to the Houston Astros
2 of 5
To HOU: LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, RHP Jose Cisnero
To DET: IF Zach Dezenzo, OF Justin Dirden, RHP Jose Fleury
The Houston Astros rank 22nd in the majors with a 4.85 ERA since the All-Star break, and the starting rotation has leaned heavily on rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France for much of the season as a result of injuries.
Adding another veteran starting pitcher to the mix seemed like a clear need even before the division-rival Texas Rangers acquired Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery in the past week, and now it feels even more pressing that they counter with a rotation upgrade of their own.
With a 2.95 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 88.1 innings, Eduardo Rodríguez is having a terrific season, and he has put the finger injury that sidelined him for more than a month comfortably in the rearview at this point. Assuming he opts out of the final three years and $49 million of his current contract as expected this offseason, he'll be a rental.
Reliever Jose Cisnero is also headed for free agency this offseason, and he can add some depth to the relief corps with a 3.98 ERA and 10.0 K/9 in 44 appearances.
In return, the Tigers get a breakout prospect in Zach Dezenzo, an MLB-ready outfielder in Justin Dirden and a lower-level pitching prospect with upside in Jose Fleury.
Dezenzo is hitting .332/.406/.522 with 27 extra-base hits in 61 games between High-A and Double-A in his first full professional season after going in the 12th round of the 2022 draft out of Ohio State.
Dirden hit .302/.384/.558 with 40 doubles, 24 home runs and 101 RBI in the upper levels of the minors last year, and he is back at Triple-A this season without a clear path to the majors.
Fleury, 21, is an undersized 6'0", 185-pound right-hander who has piled up 151 strikeouts in 105 innings in his first two professional seasons.
David Bednar to Atlanta Braves
3 of 5
To ATL: RHP David Bednar, 1B Ji-Man Choi
To PIT: LHP Dylan Dodd, LHP Jared Shuster, 3B Ignacio Alvarez
The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the game's best relievers in David Bednar, and the Atlanta Braves have a glaring need at the back of their bullpen.
An All-Star for the second year in a row, Bednar has a 1.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 with 21 saves in 22 opportunities, and he could either serve as a setup reliever or supplant closer Raisel Iglesias, who has a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in the ninth-inning role. Either way, the Atlanta bullpen is vastly improved.
Veteran Ji-Man Choi quietly posted a .930 OPS with three doubles and four home runs in 44 plate appearances in July, and he could provide a left-handed bat off the bench and a platoon option for Marcell Ozuna at designated hitter. He is playing on a one-year, $4.65 million deal.
In return, the Pirates get a pair of MLB-ready pieces to plug into their starting rotation, as well as a breakout offensive performer in the lower levels of the minors.
Dylan Dodd (25) and Jared Shuster (24) both made their MLB debuts earlier this season, and they have tallied a combined 14 starts in the Atlanta rotation while shuttling between Triple-A and the majors. They will both be controllable through the 2028 season, and while their 2023 numbers don't jump off the page, they have the potential to be solid middle-of-the-rotation starters.
Infielder Ignacio Alvarez is hitting .290/.408/.414 with 27 extra-base hits and almost as many walks (58) as strikeouts (64) in 89 games at the High-A level. A fifth-round pick in 2022, he has emerged as one of the top position-player prospects in the Atlanta system this year, but a crowded infield makes him expendable.
Editor's Note: On Tuesday, Ji-Man Choi was traded to the San Diego Padres along with Rich Hill in exchange for minor leaguers Jackson Wolf, Estuar Suarez and Alfonso Rivas, according to Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic.
Dylan Carlson to the New York Yankees
4 of 5
To NYY: OF Dylan Carlson
To STL: RHP Chase Hampton, RHP Clayton Beeter
With Tyler O'Neill, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker currently occupying starting spots in the St. Louis Cardinals outfield, former top prospect Dylan Carlson has been frequently mentioned as a potential change-of-scenery trade candidate.
The 24-year-old was the No. 9 prospect in baseball heading into the 2021 season, and he hit .266/.343/.437 for a 115 OPS+ with 31 doubles, 18 home runs, 65 RBI and 3.1 WAR that year to finish third in NL Rookie of the Year voting.
He has not matched that level of offensive production in the years since, due in part to missing time with various injuries, but with club control through the 2026 season and a promising track record of production in the minors, he still has a ton of upside.
The Cardinals' biggest need is young pitching talent, and this package adds a pair of quality arms to their system who are both capable of contributing at the MLB level in short order.
Hampton, 21, has a 3.53 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 125 strikeouts in 86.2 innings between High-A and Double-A in his pro debut after going in the sixth round of the 2022 draft.
Beeter, 24, has a 3.44 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 83.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, and he has electric stuff with a fastball that has touched 98 mph, a terrific wipeout slider and a quality curveball.
They would join Tekoah Roby (via TEX for Jordan Montgomery) and Sem Robberse (via TOR for Jordan Hicks) as quality pitching prospects acquired at this year's deadline.
Justin Verlander to the Los Angeles Dodgers
5 of 5
To LAD: RHP Justin Verlander, $14 million
To NYM: RHP Nick Frasso, OF Josue De Paula
The New York Mets acquired a top 100 prospect in shortstop Luisangel Acuña from the Texas Rangers in the Max Scherzer deal, though it required them to eat $35 million of the $57.5 million still owed to the future Hall of Famer. Don't expect an identical framework in a Justin Verlander trade.
"Teams expecting the type of salary relief that the Mets gave the Texas Rangers for Max Scherzer—approximately $35 million—are finding that the Mets are valuing Verlander differently. Trading partners wanting cash in a Verlander trade are finding the prospect ask much higher," wrote Andy Martino of SNY.tv.
That said, if the Mets are going to reel in a major prospect haul, they will likely still need to take on some of Verlander's remaining salary.
Absorbing the roughly $14 million he is still owed for the remainder of this season would help the Dodgers avoid potential luxury-tax penalties, while the Mets would, in turn, be out from under Verlander's entire 2024 salary.
That also brings back a top 100 pitching prospect in Nick Frasso (No. 63 in B/R Top 100) and a player who has one of the highest ceilings in a deep farm system in Josue De Paula.
Frasso, 24, was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Mitch White at last year's deadline. With a high-octane fastball that touches 100 mph and a quality slider and changeup, he has racked up 73 strikeouts in 55.2 innings at Double-A.
De Paula, 18, hit .350/.448/.552 over 223 plate appearances in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League last year. He made the move stateside and jumped up to Single-A this season, and he is holding his own with a .282/.394/.388 line and 14 extra-base hits in 44 games. With a 60-hit, 55-power offensive profile, he has the potential to be an impact player.
Editor's Note: On Tuesday afternoon, Verlander was traded to the Houston Astros with the Mets receiving Houston's No. 1 prospect, OF Drew Gilbert, and OF Ryan Clifford, according to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand.
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