Fantasy Football 2023: Sleeper Running Backs to Target in Late Rounds
Much of the NFL offseason buzz has been centered on running backs and how franchise owners are reluctant to award them lucrative long-term contracts.
Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Omar Khan recently blamed the rising cost of quarterbacks for the continued devaluation of running backs.
"You don't have to be a mathematician to figure it out, but when quarterbacks' salaries start increasing at the rate that they're increasing, at some point, it's going to have a residual effect somewhere on the roster," Khan said, per Tim Benz of TribLIVE.
While running backs may be undervalued in the modern NFL, the opposite is generally true in fantasy football—where elite starting backs dominate the early draft rounds and form the foundation of most successful squads.
Of course, some running backs are still undervalued in fantasy. They're called sleepers, and they can help forge a title contender if identified early enough. Below, we'll examine four potential sleepers for the 2023 season worth targeting in the late rounds.
All selections and analysis are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
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Last season under then-rookie head coach Mike McDaniel, the Miami Dolphins utilized a pass-based offense that didn't fully feature the talents of Raheem Mostert. However, Mostert was still quite productive in his committee role alongside Jeff Wilson Jr.
Mostert finished the 2022 season with 31 receptions, 1,093 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns. He fumbled only once.
Those are solid numbers for a flex starter, and that's exactly how Moster should be viewed entering the 2023 season. While he may lose a few touches to Wilson and rookie Devon Achane, he's still projected to be the lead back in Miami this season.
Even after the Dolphins added Wilson mid-season, Mostert remained productive. In the final two games of the season, for example, he tallied 10 receptions, 172 scrimmage yards and a touchdown combined.
With it looking increasingly likely that Dalvin Cook won't land in Miami, Mostert is currently being undervalued. He's ranked just 142nd in FantasyPros' PPR draft rankings.
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
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Like Mostert, Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier is a viable flex starter who isn't getting enough respect. He's ranked 139th by FantasyPros.
In Allgeier's case, though, the lack of preseason hype is somewhat understandable. He's set to be in a committee with runner/receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and rookie star-to-be Bijan Robinson.
Robinson, by the way, is ranked 13th by FantasyPros. He is likely to be Atlanta's primary backfield option, but his dual-threat ability makes him more likely to push out the 32-year-old Patterson than Allgeier.
A year ago, Allgeier was inactive for Week 1, didn't make a start until Week 5 and only made seven starts over the course of the season. He still finished with 16 receptions, 1,174 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns.
Yes, Robinson is the hot new thing in Atlanta, and he's rightfully being touted as a fantasy league-winner. but dismissing Allegeier as nothing more than a handcutt would be a mistake.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
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While we're on the subject of handcuffs with flex potential, we should mention Cleveland Browns second-year back Jerome Ford.
Ford is expected to fill the No. 2 role behind Nick Chubb that was previously held by Kareem Hunt. Though Hunt was limited to only 158 touches in 2022, he finished with 35 receptions, 678 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns.
The Browns are high on the Cincinnati product and may give him more opportunities than they did Hunt a year ago.
"Jerome's got a skillset that allows him to do anything and everything," running backs coach Stump Mitchell said, per Anthony Poisal of the team's official website.
It's worth noting that the Browns believed that Hunt's speed was
"slipping" in 2022, according to Terry Pluto of cleveland.com.That likely played a role in his lack of usage.
Three years ago—he missed nine games in 2021—Hunt finished with 1,145 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. Ford could conceivably approach those numbers. Ranked 192nd by FantasyPros, he's worth a late flier.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
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Managers seeking a very deep sleeper with upside should target Cincinnati Bengals rookie running back Chase Brown.
The Illinois product amassed 1,883 scrimmage yards with 27 receptions and 13 touchdowns in his final collegiate season and is a well-rounded back who can fill the complementary role vacated by Samaje Perine this offseason.
Perine was Cincinnati's primary backup behind Joe Mixon last year, filled in twice as the starter and finished with 38 receptions, 681 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. That may be the floor for Brown.
Mixon is still going to be the starter after agreeing to a pay cut to stick around this offseason. However, he lacked explosiveness in 2022, averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and missed two games.
With fresher legs, Brown could actually see more opportunities than Perine had, and it wouldn't be a total shock to see him supplant Mixon as the starter before the end of the season.
Brown is ranked just 249th by FantasyPros, and he's definitely worth a late-round stash.
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