5 NFL TEs in Best Position for Breakout Season in 2023

Where the tight end position is concerned, it's Travis Kelce's world—and everyone else is just living in it. Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens may be close, but Kelce is king.

The thing is, there's only one Kelce. Whether it's the other 31 (or 30) NFL teams or the other managers in a fantasy football league (don't lie—half y'all saw this headline and thought, "I need a late-round draft target at tight end, I shall continue reading."), everyone's looking for the next big thing at tight end —or at least a player who will emerge as a top-10 starter.

There are no guarantees at tight end—it's the most unpredictable of the offensive skill positions. But this quintet of tight ends all have the potential to exceed expectations and have a big year in 2023—both for NFL teams and fantasy managers.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

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ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 20: Cole Kmet #85 of the Chicago Bears makes a one handed catch against A.J. Terrell #24 of the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Among the tight ends on this list, Cole Kmet of the Chicago Bears is likely the best bet for a breakout season. As a matter of fact, the Bears just bet on Kmet having just such a season, handing the fourth-year veteran a four-year, $50 million contract extension.

While speaking to reporters, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus said that Kmet is a key part of what Chicago wants to do offensively in 2023.

"Our offense is something that really enhances the tight ends," Eberflus said. "We'll see it more this year with the screens and the mismatches and the singles on the back side. He's developing just like we want him to and we're excited where he is now."

Kmet's receiving yardage (544) and targets (69) were actually down last year relative to 2021. But in most other categories Kmet had the best season of his career, whether it was yards per catch (10.9), catch percentage (72.5), yards per target (7.9) or most importantly touchdowns (7).

Yes, Kmet's volume last year wasn't great. But no pass-catcher in Chicago's was—the Bears averaged just 130.5 passing yards per game in 2022 (no, really) and were the only team in the league that attempted less than 400 passes.

The Bears made wide receiver D.J. Moore part of the trade for the first overall pick in this year's draft in part to help get that passing game off the ground. But the team is also expecting a big step forward from quarterback Justin Fields.

For Fields to take that step, he's going to need improvement from the Bears' No. 2 option in the passing game.

And with Moore drawing coverage away from the middle of the field, Kmet should be able to do some real damage in 2023—especially in the red zone.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

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INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 18: Chigoziem Okonkwo #85 of the Tennessee Titans makes a catch during a 17-14 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on December 18, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Last year, Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Tennessee Titans caught 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns. This year, the 6'2", 244-pounder has goals that are just a tad loftier—like catching 100 passes.

As Jamey Eisenberg wrote for CBS Sports, Okonkwo isn't about to back down from that goal, either.

"I said it," Okonkwo said.

Okonkwo said he's looking to take a major step forward in his second season.

"Going into Year 2, I really feel like it's going to be a huge year for me, a huge leap," Okonkwo said. "I'm so confident going into it. I know what to expect. I know I can take my game to the highest level. Year 2 for me, I'm just really excited. All of the stuff I've been doing now. Building on the tools and my weaknesses, working on those and refining them. I can't wait to get on the field and show myself. I feel like I'm really under-the-radar. I feel like I'm one of the top tight ends in the league. I can't wait to put that on display and show everybody."

Now, Okonkwo's declaration came before the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, who could throw a wrench into Okonkwo's target share. But Hopkins' presence (coupled with that of young wideout Treylon Burks) also means that opposing defenses won't be able to devote that much attention to Okonkwo.

From Week 11 on last year, Okonkwo had at least four targets in six of seven games. He topped 40 receiving yards four times and scored twice.

If Okonkwo can put that sort of production together over a full season, he's going to be a top-10 tight end.

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

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INGLEWOOD, CA - DECEMBER 25: Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich (80) during the NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams on December 25, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

As is the case with many rookie tight ends, Greg Dulcich of the Denver Broncos posted relatively modest numbers as a rookie—33 catches on 55 targets for 411 yards and two touchdowns. But headed into his second season, new Broncos head coach Sean Payton thinks that Dulcich could be set to do some real damage in 2023.

"We use the term 'Joker' where we can get matchups," Payton said, via Aric DiLalla of the team's website. "The trick sometimes is trying to predict what you're going to get defensively, if you're either going to get a nickel package or a base package. But man, he can run, [and] he's got good ball skills. ... Then you begin to build on that. Right now, there's an install that's taking place and the players, they go play those spots. When you get into the season, you really get more specific to who's running what route. I think his menu is going to be lengthy in the passing game, and there's enough stuff that we can do in the run game."

Russell Wilson has never been a quarterback who has targeted the tight end position frequently. But Payton's offense has featured the position heavily in the past, whether it was Jeremy Shockey, Jason Witten or Jimmy Graham.

Payton wasn't ready to put Dulcich on their level yet—but he said the potential's there.

"I'm not saying this young player [will be just like them], but he's got traits that are exciting," he said.

A healthy Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton should pull a lot of defensive attention toward the boundary. That will leave the middle of the field wide open—and plenty of room for Dulcich to do damage in 2023.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

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INGLEWOOD, CA - DECEMBER 25: Tight end Tyler Higbee #89 of the Los Angeles Rams runs the ball after a complete pass against the Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

Tyler Higbee of the Los Angeles Rams is easily the most accomplished tight end on this list—he has surpassed 500 receiving yards each of the past four years, scored 16 touchdowns over the last four years and won a Super Bowl. He's also the elder statesman of the group—he'll turn 31 during the 2023 season.

While speaking to reporters, Higbee allowed that sometimes he feels his age, although after playing through a balky knee much of last year, he said he feels much better in 2023.

"Year 8, you're playing football, your body's not always going to be as healthy as it was 8-10 years ago," Higbee said. "But yeah, I feel good. Last year, having the knee surgery, knee injury, but I felt like I was able to kind of put on that armor to get through a season. I feel good coming into this year. I feel much better than I did last year at this point."

The Rams offense struggled as a whole last year, but Higbee's sum of numbers were actually up—his 72 receptions were a career high, and his 620 receiving yards were his most since 2019. However, his 8.6 yards per reception were his fewest since his rookie year.

Now, Higbee will have a healthy Matthew Stafford back. And while star wide receiver Cooper Kupp is still in Los Angeles, the depth chart also holds…not much.

Last year, with Kupp out, Higbee saw a career-high 108 targets. It's entirely possible he'll see a similar number in 2023, with only Stafford and Kupp in play the quality of those targets should be much better.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) catches a ball during practice at the NFL football team's training camp in Pittsford, N.Y., Thursday, July 27, 2023. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

Let's make one thing clear off the jump—it's rare for a rookie tight end to have a big first season. Yes, Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards two years ago, but Pitts was also the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history—and even then he didn't crack the top-five at his position in PPR fantasy points.

However, if there's going to be a first-year breakout at tight end, Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills is the best bet.

The Bills thought enough of the former Utah standout, who caught 70 passes for 890 yards and eight scores last season, to draft him 25th overall. And Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey said that the youngster is already turning heads in camp.

"Obviously, there's a vision for him. There's a clear way we see him and the way we want to utilize him," Dorsey said, via Jay Cybulski of BuffaloRumblings.com. "But I think the biggest thing is you don't want to skip steps in a player's development more so than anything. To rush that and not let him learn the foundation of the offense and the core of who we are would be doing him and us a disservice."

The Buffalo passing game has no shortage of weapons in wideouts Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, offseason acquisition Trent Sherfield and tight end Dawson Knox. But Knox is more of an in-line option than a pure pass-catcher, and the Bills were seventh in the league in passing last season.

The floor for Kincaid is lower than with the other tight ends listed here.

But if things break the right way, his ceiling could be sky-high.