Justin Herbert, 5 Under-the-Radar MVP Candidates for 2023 NFL Season
On the field, nothing changed Wednesday about Justin Herbert's circumstances. He's still coached by Brandon Staley and Kellen Moore, his supporting cast generally remains the same as it was post-draft, and he continues to be a Pro Bowl quarterback entering his fourth NFL season for the Los Angeles Chargers.
However, because the 25-year-old just became the highest-paid player in NFL history, the expectations will naturally change for him in 2023.
That's what happens when you finally cash in, and Herbert's new five-year, $262.5 million contract stands out.
The reality is the 2020 No. 6 overall pick was already an under-the-radar MVP candidate for 2023. Let's elaborate on that and toss out four other players who have the ability to win that award despite not possessing MVP odds better than +1500 at DraftKings.
LA Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+1500)
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The trajectory is there. Herbert was Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, a Pro Bowler in 2021 and finished ninth in MVP voting in 2022.
Some of his numbers took a slight dip last year, but he posted a career-best 68.2 completion rate while the Chargers won double-digit games for the first time in his tenure. That despite the fact that he dealt with rib and shoulder injuries and his top two weapons, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, had injuries of their own.
Now, Herbert has an intriguing new offensive coordinator in Moore, who should open things up for him to get the ball down field more often. And in addition to Allen, Williams and versatile running back Austin Ekeler, he also has first-round pick Quentin Johnston at his disposal.
The Chargers face a tall task in trying to take down the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. But they usually play well against them and the talent is there.
If Herbert can lead L.A. to a surprise division championship, he could steal the MVP award from Patrick Mahomes and others with stronger odds.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (+1500)
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It was Trevor Lawrence's Jacksonville Jaguars who took down Herbert's Chargers in last year's playoffs in shocking comeback fashion.
And while the 23-year-old might not yet be as accomplished as Herbert at the NFL level, he's got more pedigree and a higher ceiling as the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft.
It's entirely possible Lawrence will explode in his critical third season, especially now that he's got a full year under his belt with coach Doug Pederson. Throw in the fact that his arsenal is stronger with the addition of wideout Calvin Ridley, and the ingredients are there—especially if a young but talented offensive line can come together.
The wild-card factor here is the Jaguars also play in the softest division in a tough AFC, which could enable Lawrence to lead them to a No. 1 seed while teams like the Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills counteract each other elsewhere in the conference.
For what it's worth, each of the last six MVPs played for teams that finished the regular season as the top seed in their conference.
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields (+2000)
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Essentially what we're saying here is: Imagine if Justin Fields can become an elite passer.
The 2021 No. 11 overall pick was a top-10 MVP candidate in 2022 despite ranking last overall among quarterbacks with more than 10 starts in terms of completion percentage at 60.4 percent. That's mainly because he rushed for a ridiculous 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns while becoming one of the most unique offensive weapons in the NFL.
That wasn't enough for the Chicago Bears to compete, especially because the 24-year-old lacked a decent supporting cast and help from his defense. But what if he can put it together with his arm in Year 3? Didn't Lamar Jackson face a similarly tall task ahead of his 2019 MVP season?
It's not out of the realm of possibility considering Fields' passer rating shot up from 74.6 in his first seven games to 93.1 in his final eight outings of 2022, or that he's got a lot more support now that DJ Moore, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright, Tremaine Edmunds, DeMarcus Walker and T.J. Edwards are in place on either side of the ball.
The NFC North could also be wide open in 2023, leaving a path for Fields to sweep into the MVP picture with a one-of-a-kind performance and enough improvement as a passer.
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (+2200)
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Why do more than a quarter of the league's starting quarterbacks have better MVP odds than last season's highest-rated qualified passer?
It likely comes down to the fact that there's plenty of reason to be concerned about Tua Tagovailoa's ability to remain on the field in 2023.
The Miami Dolphins signal-caller sustained several scary concussions in 2022 and missed about a quarter of his breakout season as a result. And beyond that, it's no secret that he has faced plenty of injury issues elsewhere previously.
By all indications, though, the 25-year-old is on track this offseason.
"He's doing great," Dolphins head coach McDaniel told NFL Network's Tom Pelissero earlier this offseason. "He's had a really good offseason with his family and training and positioning himself to feel good moving forward. He's very healthy, vibrant, and I can see a hunger in him that I'm excited to watch play out."
Tagovailoa was incredibly efficient in his first season working with McDaniel. With an injury-free season and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at his disposal, he can win his first MVP award and help the Dolphins take the top seed in the AFC.
Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson (+4500)
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Now those are some juicy odds.
Sure, Russell Wilson looked like a washed-up, frustrated disaster in his debut season with the Denver Broncos, but it's possible that was an aberration based mainly on his inability to acclimate to a new team with limited support from one-and-done head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
But now, the 34-year-old nine-time Pro Bowler has had another full offseason to work with the weapons and related cogs provided to him within the Denver offense. And maybe more critically, Hackett has been replaced by Sean Payton.
Could Wilson, Payton, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and a strong offensive line come together to lift the Broncos above the Chiefs and the Chargers in a stacked AFC West? It's unlikely, but it's not out of the question when you consider the track records of the Super Bowl-winning coach and quarterback who now reside in Denver.
Much more far-fetched things have happened in this league, and you never want to count out Wilson.
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