6 NFL Players and Teams That Will Defy Expectations in 2023
At this time of year, hope springs eternal for fans of all 32 NFL teams. Everyone has hopes for a successful season. Everyone has expectations.
Of course, expectations for some teams are higher than others. The Kansas City Chiefs expect to make the Super Bowl. Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson expects to post gaudy yardage totals. The Jacksonville Jaguars expect to make the postseason.
No, really. They do.
For others, expectations are much more modest. No one expects the Chicago Bears to win the Super Bowl. Or for Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder to lead the league in passing yards.
The thing about expectations, though, is that the more modest they are, the easier it is to exceed them. Maybe it's a running back telling Father Time to get bent. Or a couple of last-place teams making the postseason. Or a veteran quarterback washing off the stink of a down year.
For every player and team that fails to meet expectations, there will be those who exceed them.
Players and teams just like these.
The Carolina Panthers Will Win the NFC South
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The Carolina Panthers don't have much in the way of expectations in 2023.
They have a new head coach in Frank Reich and will likely be starting a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young.
Carolina was 29th in the NFL in total offense last year and 22nd in total defense. Even in an NFC South that is among the league's weaker divisions, not many are picking the Panthers to be a factor in the division this season.
However, Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports believes the Reich/Young pairing could be one that pays immediate dividends:
"(Reich) and Young are sort of a package deal here. While the QB would've been a worthwhile top pick even without Reich taking over the staff, the fact they're working together makes Carolina all the more intriguing. Though he managed just a single playoff victory as the Colts' head man from 2018 into 2022, Reich is as even-keeled as they come, making him an ideal mentor for the new signal-caller. He should have an ascending Panthers roster competitive right out of the gate."
It's not just about Reich and Young, either. Miles Sanders was a 1,000-yard running back with the Eagles last year. Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark may not be the most imposing wide receiver duo, but both have 1,000-yard seasons on their professional resume.
In edge-rusher Brian Burns, linebacker Frankie Luvu, cornerback Jaycee Horn and safety Jeremy Chinn, the Panthers have talent on defense.
They may not have the most talented roster in the NFC South, but they aren't that far off—and Reich may well be the division's best coach.
He's going to lead the Panthers to an NFC South title in his first season.
Derrick Henry Will Lead the NFL in Rushing at 30 Years Old
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Over seven seasons in the NFL, Derrick Henry has piled up 1,750 carries and 8,335 yards. Twice he has led the National Football League in rushing, including a 2,000-yard season in 2020.
But there's a saying in sports that "Father Time is undefeated." And as his 30th birthday approaches, many expect that his best days are behind him, especially with his 382 touches in 2022 putting him in the crosshairs of "The Curse of 370."
For those wondering, the curse states that backs who amass 370 touches in a season usually experience a drop-off in production the following year.
But as far as Dan Hanzus of NFL.com is concerned, age and 2022 workload aside, Henry remains one of the NFL's true superstars in the backfield.
"Henry didn't get as much pub in 2022," he wrote, "but his 'pop the hood' stats remained elite, and he led the league in carries for the third time in four years. In other words, he was as good as ever for a Titans team that was mayonnaise-on-white-bread in all other departments."
Henry averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 2022. He was as hard to bring down as ever, breaking 35 tackles. In other words, if there was a decline with Henry, it wasn't evident on the field.
To say that the Titans' passing-game weapons are unimpressive this year doesn't begin to cover it. If Tennessee is going to make any sort of noise this year, it's going to be on the back of Henry.
Expect the running back to pile up over 325 carries for the third time in four years in 2023. And in the last year of his contract (and likely his last season in Nashville), "King Henry" is going to bring home his third rushing title.
The Cleveland Browns Will Win the AFC North
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The Cleveland Browns suffered through a tumultuous last-place season in 2022—in no small part because Deshaun Watson started the season serving an 11-game suspension and looked like very rusty when he did see the field.
While appearing on The Rich Eisen Show (h/t Brandon Little of Browns Digest), head coach Kevin Stefanski said the quarterback has looked a lot more like the player the Browns thought they were getting when they gave him a fully guaranteed $230 million contract:
"There were some glimpses of elite quarterback play (last year) that we have all seen from him over the course of his career.
"As a team, we were not perfect. We were up and down, I think we went 3-3 in the games that Deshaun played. As a player, there were some ups and downs.
I think where he is right now, hard to compare to a year ago, but I certainly see a comfort level in what we're doing offensively, I see a guy that is always going to be leading out in front, that's kind of who he is."
The Browns made a number of improvements on both sides of the ball in the offseason. On offense, they added a No. 2 receiver to pair with Amari Cooper in Elijah Moore. Defensively, they brought in veteran coordinator Jim Schwartz to run the defense and gave superstar edge-rusher Myles Garrett a new battery mate in edge-rusher Za'Darius Smith. The team also fortified the middle of the line with tackle Dalvin Tomlinson.
The Browns already had a talented roster. Nick Chubb may be the best pure runner in the NFL, and Cleveland possesses one of the best offensive lines in the league. If Schwartz's defense is improved and Watson can regain his Pro Bowl form, this is a playoff-caliber roster.
In fact, it's a team capable of winning the AFC North altogether.
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Kadarius Toney Will Top 1,200 Receiving Yards
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Kadarius Toney has only played two professional seasons, but it feels like fans have been waiting for the 2021 No. 20 overall pick to break out for about five years now.
In Year 3, that breakout may finally be coming.
While highlighting a potential breakout player for every AFC team, Zoltán Buday of Pro Football Focus singled out Toney, who caught 14 passes for 171 yards and two scores in seven games with the Chiefs last year:
"Why will Toney have a breakout season in 2023? Just turn on the tape of last year's Super Bowl to find the answer. Toney was on the field for only seven snaps and still scored a touchdown and had a decisive punt return. Add in JuJu Smith-Schuster's departure and a whole offseason for Toney in Kansas City, and it is understandable why Chiefs fans are excited about the potential of the former Giants wide receiver."
Fans aren't the only ones excited to see a full season of the 24-year-old. New Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy told reporters he's intrigued to see what he can do with a full offseason under his belt in Kansas City:
"I think we all see what he can do when the football's in his hands. Again, same type of deal, he comes over halfway through the season, it's a whole new offense, he's got to learn the ins and outs, and so you have that point and he was able to do that and it's exciting now for us to be able to take that to year two and build that relationship with Pat. But he's super talented with the football in his hands and he's been that way his entire life in his football career."
Toney's explosiveness has never been in question. Neither has his ability to make people miss in the open field. Travis Kelce may be Patrick Mahomes' favorite target, but with Smith-Schuster gone, the team needs someone to step into the No. 1 receiver role.
That someone will be Toney—and he'll sail past the 1,000-yard mark in 2023.
Washington Commanders Will Make the Playoffs
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Just about every team in the NFC East enters the 2023 season with postseason aspirations, mostly because the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles all won playoff games in 2022.
The hype around the Washington Commanders has been a lot more muted this offseason. They were a .500 team in 2022, but they are breaking in a second-year quarterback in Sam Howell who attempted all of 19 passes in his one appearance last year.
However, Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson is confident the team has its man in Howell, who was a fifth-round pick in 2022.
"I think we got our quarterback situation settled," he told The Jim Rome Show. "I think Sam Howell's gonna be our guy. I have complete faith in him. He's a guy who, I always say this, makes throws look super effortless on the field."
If Dotson's right (or even close to it), the Commanders could make some noise this season.
Dotson and Terry McLaurin are an excellent one-two punch at wide receiver. Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson are a quality "thunder and lightning" duo in the backfield. The Commanders offensive line isn't great, but it's adequate.
Defensively, if Chase Young can recapture the form that saw him win Defensive Rookie of the Year in in 2020, Washington could have the best defensive line in the league. That's right, better than the Eagles.
Jamin Davis and Cody Barton are capable linebackers. The secondary has talent in the likes of Kendall Fuller and Kamren Curl. Washington was fourth in the league in pass defense and seventh in points allowed.
The Commanders have a better, more balanced roster on paper than the Giants.
With some decent QB play, a postseason berth is a real possibility.
Russell Wilson Will Set Career High in Passing Yards
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Last year, the Denver Broncos mortgaged their future to make one of the biggest splash moves of the offseason, acquiring quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks.
What followed was an unmitigated disaster. Wilson set career lows in completion percentage (60.5) and touchdown passes (16) in what could be deemed the worst season of his 11-year career.
That disastrous year led to some big changes in the Mile High City, chief among them being another trade that brought in head coach Sean Payton. His arrival has injected a jolt of enthusiasm into the Broncos, and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy told reporters he thinks that Wilson will use last year's struggles as fuel for this year's successes.
"Russ is a soldier," Jeudy said. "So just the way he handles his business, the way he handles situations, I just know the type of guy he is and the stuff that he can overcome. In the situations like that, that don't put no fear into a man's heart. And I know that this year, he got a big year coming ahead."
Wilson was admittedly bad last year, and he's 34 years old. But it's not like Wilson to suddenly forgot how to play football—as recently as 2021 he was a Pro Bowler, and he eclipsed 4,200 passing yards and threw 40 touchdown passes in 2020.
In Courtland Sutton, Jeudy and Tim Patrick, Wilson has a rock-solid trio of passing-game weapons at his disposal. The arrival of Payton should be a sizable boost to an offense that ranked dead last in scoring in 2022.
All the ingredients are there for Wilson to bounce back big-time in 2023—so much so that Wilson is going to do something this year he never has before: Throw for 4,300 yards.
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