Fantasy Football 2023: 6 Deep Sleepers To Keep An Eye On In NFL Training Camps
The calendar has turned to July, and that means many things besides just barbecue and fireworks.
Before long, training camps will be firing up across the National Football League. And as they do, so will fantasy football drafts.
Now, fantasy drafters have a pretty good idea who they want to target in Rounds 1 and 2. They have some mid-round values in mind. A few guys on their personal bust lists who are a hard pass.
That's not where fantasy leagues are really won and lost, though. What can really make a difference is hitting on a late-round dart-throw; nabbing a sleeper who wakes up once the season begins.
Now, hitting on sleepers is easier said than done. But one of the most important aspects of training camp for fantasy managers is keeping an eye out for players who could be set for larger-than-expected roles—roles that will equate to better than expected fantasy production.
You won't find any sure bets here—every player listed here has an ADP at DraftSharks higher than 140. But each of these names has the potential to turn a strong training camp into fantasy relevance.
The kind of relevance that wins leagues.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
1 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 141
There are a lot of changes this year in Houston. There's a new head coach in DeMeco Ryans. A new offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik. A new quarterback in rookie C.J. Stroud. And with Brandin Cooks now catching passes in Dallas, the Texans need a new No. 1 receiver.
And while it's still early, Jonathan Alexander of the Houston Chronicle said Stroud appeared to favor third-year pro Nico Collins in OTAs at least.
The 6'4", 215-pounder has shown flashes over his first two seasons, catching 37 passes for 481 yards and two scores. But he's missed five games in both seasons, and he told Alexander that staying healthy is a priority of his in 2023.
"Being there for the team, ballin' out, making plays," Collins said. "Most definitely, that's my goal. That's everybody's goal: to stay healthy throughout 17.
"It sounds easy, but it's hard. Sticking to the process, trusting your routine, and just keep going, man. Keep getting better every day, for sure."
Josh Shepardson of Fantasy Pros sees the 24-year-old's size and ability to stretch the field as a good fit with Stroud:
"Collins' vertical use is a stylistic fit with Stroud. Per PFF, Collins had nine receptions on 23 targets from 10-19 yards downfield and four on 12 targets 20-plus yards downfield in 2022. And among 109 FBS quarterbacks who attempted at least 30 deep passes (20-plus yards) in 2022, Stroud was PFF's 12th-graded passer, completing 31 of 61 attempts for 1,082 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions."
If Collins does emerge as Stroud's favorite target in training camp, there could be considerable value to be had here.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers
2 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 143
Just as in Houston, there's a new quarterback in Green Bay—Jordan Love is getting his chance to be the Packers starter after Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets.
Now, most fantasy pundits expected Christian Watson would assume the role of Green Bay's top wideout after last year's late-season surge.
However, ESPN's Rob Demovsky noted Love favored Romeo Doubs, with the young signal-caller touting the 23-year-old's ability to make contested catches.
"When in doubt, you can throw it out there and you know he's going to make a play, and he's done a great job of going and getting the ball wherever it's at," Love said. "He's made some really tough catches, and it kind of just builds everybody's confidence. It builds my confidence in him, just being able to throw the ball out there and know he's going to make a play."
To this point in his career, Doubs hasn't been much of a statistical factor—he posted a relatively unimpressive 42/425/3 line on 67 targets as a rookie. But head coach Matt LaFleur believes he is ready to take a major step forward in Year 2:
"I think that 'Rome' has done a nice job of really making that next step. Now, he's got to go out and do it in games, what we've seen from him in practice, just how deliberate he is with what he's trying to work on. He's done a great job of really getting his feet in the ground, running violent routes, violent cuts, being aggressive with his hands. I think he's shown a lot of progress. Just the rapport that those two guys have shown throughout eight practices has been pretty solid."
Fantasy managers take note.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams
3 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 145
With the exception of wide receiver Cooper Kupp and maybe running back Cam Akers, the enthusiasm level regarding players for the Los Angeles Rams is somewhere between "tepid" and "trip to the dentist."
That apathy extends to tight end Tyler Higbee, who is coming off the board in the 13th round on average.
However, while the Rams offense struggled in a major way with Matthew Stafford on the shelf, Higbee was quietly a serviceable option for fantasy managers. He was one of four tight ends last year to receive over 100 targets. He caught 72 of those for 620 yards, and despite finding the end zone just three times, he still finished sixth at the position in PPR points.
Now, Stafford is back and the Rams offense is rather devoid of playmakers outside Kupp, but Higbee has been relegated to afterthought status in fantasy drafts.
However, Justin Edwards of 4For4 thinks that could be a mistake:
"With an obvious role in an offense devoid of playmakers, Tyler Higbee has a clear workman-like road to compile an overall TE1 season yet again. By simply keeping his target share where it is, there is also room for upside…we should expect significantly more volume from this offense, given that the 2022 version was Sean McVay's first unit to average less than 62 plays per game (58.9) and below a 60% pass rate (58.6%) in neutral game script. There are no hints that a change in usage is in store for Tyler Higbee, while a full season of receiving a 20%+ target share from Matthew Stafford is enough to consider the veteran a top —if frustrating— fantasy option for the 2023 season."
Higbee can be a hit-or-miss option at times. But so long as he and Stafford maintain the same relationship they had the past couple of years, the 30-year-old should easily outplay his draft slot.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
4 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 152
It seems a little odd to call a quarterback who won a Super Bowl two years ago a "deep sleeper." But after missing a big chunk of the 2022 season with a neck injury, Matthew Stafford has gone from being drafted as a weekly fantasy start a year ago to downtown irrelevance in 2023.
However, the 35-year-old is reportedly healthy and took part in OTAs.
This Rams team isn't entering the season as a Super Bowl favorite, but Charles McDonald of Yahoo Sports thinks a healthy Stafford could still rebound in a big way in 2023:
"When Stafford was healthy last season, he still looked like a quality starting quarterback capable of winning games, but the team around him really struggled. This season, he'll be getting Cooper Kupp back along with interior offensive lineman Steve Avila, the 36th overall pick in this year's draft. Stafford won't be playing with the same level of supporting cast he did when the Rams won the Super Bowl, but it's better than last season. If any of their receivers past Kupp can develop into a legitimate secondary option, the Rams offense may actually be a tough out. Regardless, this should be a bounce-back campaign for Stafford, even if it doesn't result in a playoff berth for the Rams as a whole."
That the Rams aren't expected to be an especially good team in 2023 could be of some benefit to Stafford's fantasy managers this year. Teams that are trailing tend to throw the ball more out of necessity, and fantasy points accrued playing catch-up count the same as any other.
Two years ago, Stafford was fifth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. A top-five fantasy finish might not be realistic. But the Georgia product sneaking his way into the back of the top 12 could be doable.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
5 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 164
Here's the thing about "deep sleeper" running backs. The odds of finding one are...slim.
Most of the time with late-round fliers at the position, you're searching for one of two things: Insurance against an injury to a early-round pick or a player who could explode if circumstances change.
Tyjae Spears of the Tennessee Titans offers a bit of both.
The 22-year-old was an electrifying player at Tulane, piling up over 1,800 total yards and scoring a whopping 21 touchdowns. Tennessee running back Derrick Henry talked up what the 5'10", 195-pounder brings to the Titans offense.
"[Spears is] a versatile player, just like Dontrell [Hilliard] was," he said. "He's good at what he does in the pass game, so it's going to be exciting for him to be out there and get some passes and make some big plays for us."
Now, there's no question that Henry is king of the Tennessee backfield. And there are concerns with Spears—after two ACL tears, he reportedly has no ACL in his right knee. He dismissed those concerns while speaking to reporters at minicamp, though.
"I am healthy. I was out there," Spears said. "I did everything. So, I feel perfectly fine. Nothing wrong with me. I'm healthy."
Assuming that Spears' knee is OK (at least in the short term), at the very least he could earn some passing-down and change-of-pace work. There's also the matter of the 382 touches Henry had last year—a workload that puts him in the crosshairs of "The Curse of 370."
The last time Henry surpassed 370 touches in a season (2020), he missed over half the following season with a foot injury. Should the curse strike him again in 2022, then if Spears is half as talented as the Titans think he is, he could be the kind of late-round find who wins leagues.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
6 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 198
Chase Brown may only have been a fifth-round pick, but the youngster from Illinois has seemingly done nothing but impress from the moment he landed in the Queen City.
Via Geoff Hobson of the team's website, running backs coach Justin Hill has been impressed by the 23-year-old's professionalism and approach to the game:
"He's consistent. He is who he is. A lot of times a guy puts on one personality in the interview process and when you get him, he's different. That's not always bad, but different. Chase is who we thought he is and he was very impressive in that first meeting.
"He prides himself on his preparation on and off the field. Always in his playbook. Always a day ahead. Prepared for practice and meetings. He's approaching it like a pro. The questions he asks and then you see him in the weight room walking through the next practice with the young receivers (Iosivas and Jones.)"
For Seth Walder of ESPN, it's the ability Brown showed to make people miss (and Joe Mixon's disappointing 2022 season) that stands out.
"I'm keeping an eye on Brown, a fifth-round pick who forced 73 missed tackles (fourth-most in FBS) last season at Illinois, because Joe Mixon averaged between minus -0.2 and 0.2 rush yards over expectation per carry in the past four seasons," he wrote. "Brown is cheaper and could be Mixon's successor."
It's not just a matter of Mixon's lackluster 2022 campaign. The Bengals reportedly want him to take a pay cut—and it's no sure bet the 26-year-old is amenable to doing so. There's a non-zero chance that he won't be on the roster come Week 1.
And if that is the case, Brown would be in line to be the lead back for one of the NFL's most potent offenses.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
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