The Next Josh Jacobs? Pinpointing Fantasy Football's Potential 2023 League Winners
Last year, Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs exploded for a league-leading 1,653 rushing yards. He scored 12 rushing touchdowns.
The 25-year-old added 53 receptions for 400 yards and finished third in points-per-reception fantasy points among running backs, trailing only Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers and Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers.
That was fine in and of itself. Great, even. But what really blew the doors off was the fact that Jacobs posted that season after being selected late in the fourth round on average.
Getting value in fantasy football is how leagues are won, and getting that kind of value at running back wins them.
Now, it's not especially easy to pluck top-five fantasy RBs out of the area of the draft that some have deemed "the RB Dead Zone." If it was, everyone would do it.
However, for fantasy managers who want an elite tight end or quarterback or those who prefer to bang away at wide receiver early (a strategy growing in popularity in recent years), it can be absolutely critical to find value at running back in the middle rounds.
As it happens, there are a handful of candidates this year with the potential to offer that kind of value and be the sort of fantasy option Jacobs was in 2022: a league-winner.
ADP data (unless otherwise noted) courtesy of Draft Sharks.
JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
1 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 46
Where Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins is concerned, I rather feel like Sisyphus. Every year I roll the Dobbins hype stone up Fantasy Mountain; and every year, it rolls back over me, squashes me like a bug and rumbles back to the bottom.
But you know what? I am undaunted.
Dobbins' numbers last year (520 rushing yards, two touchdowns) don't inspire a lot of enthusiasm. But it has to be considered that he spent most of last season recovering from the ACL tear that wiped out his 2021 season and another procedure to clean up that same knee.
When he finally was healthy, the 24-year-old was highly effective—in three of his last four regular-season games, he topped 90 rushing yards three times, including two 100-yard efforts. From Weeks 14-17 last year, he was a top-20 fantasy option in PPR leagues.
Those aren't the only impressive things about Dobbins' at-first unimpressive 2022 campaign, according to Jason Katz of Pro Football Network.
"Last season, 10.9% of Dobbins' carries went for at least 15 yards," he wrote. "That was the third-highest rate in the league. He also had a 43% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, second-best in the league. And he did this all despite leading the league in percentage of carries with at least eight men in the box. He's truly a marvel of efficiency."
The Ohio State product has averaged a robust 5.9 yards per carry for his career. Lamar Jackson has already said he expects to run less in 2023. And new coordinator Todd Monken's offense uses running backs in the passing game more than in years past.
Dobbins absolutely has the talent to be a top-10 fantasy back. All he needs is the touches.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
2 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 47
If the recent industry mock drafts I have participated in are any indication, the ADP of Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (and the hype surrounding the 12th overall pick in the 2023 draft) are both on the rise.
The 21-year-old isn't especially big at just 5'9" and 199 pounds, but the Lions didn't draft him to run people over. He is blazing fast (4.36-second 40-yard dash at this year's combine) and a terror in the open field. He's a harder runner than his size would indicate as well, averaging over six yards per carry last year at Alabama.
The Lions have been using Gibbs all over the field in practice, and he told reporters he's just fine with that.
"I love how they're using me," he said. "That's something I've been used to throughout high school, Georgia Tech, and I was at Bama, so I'm pretty used to being all around, learning different routes and concepts."
However, perhaps what should be most encouraging for fantasy managers is the recent history of first-round picks as rookies, according to Connor Allen of 4For4:
"Not only does high draft capital secure a generally high floor, but also unlocks a ceiling that isn't always factored into their ADP. Since 2015, 8 of the 10 running backs drafted in the first round averaged at least 10 fantasy points per game as rookies and 7-of-10 finished as an RB2-or-better (RB24 or higher). 5-of-10 finished inside the top-7 in total fantasy points among running backs. There are some obvious rookie busts on this list including Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny but the overall outlook is strong."
Yes, the Lions signed David Montgomery to be their early-down option, but the team was 11th in rushing last year, 13th in rushing attempts and targeted backs 119 times.
There's plenty to go round—and Gibbs is a far more dynamic option.
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
3 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 57
Last year, Miles Sanders enjoyed the best season of his four-year professional career: 259 carries, 1,269 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns and a top-15 fantasy finish in PPR points among running backs.
His reward for that career year? Going from the NFC champions to one of the worst teams in the NFL. Although the $13 million in guaranteed money that he got from the Carolina Panthers probably eased the sting a little.
For his part, the 26-year-old told reporters he's pumped to get to work in his new home.
"I'm in a great mood every day," Sanders said. "I'm loving who I'm practicing with and who I'm going to war with. And the coaching staff we have is tremendous. They have a lot of experience and knowledge."
Head coach Frank Reich, meanwhile, is eager to make Sanders a focal point of the Carolina offense.
"Miles is a three-down back and he can do a little bit of everything," he said. "He's explosive, he's fast and he has good vision and patience. Really smart. And on third down, when he has to block, he's a willing blocker."
It's that three-down role that makes the Penn State product appealing to fantasy managers.
Chuba Hubbard may poach a few touches here and there, but Sanders appears in line for the heaviest workload of his career to date. He has averaged five yards per carry over his four NFL seasons. He only caught 20 passes in 2022, but he has demonstrated he's a capable receiver, catching 50 passes as a rookie.
Rookie quarterback Bryce Young is going to need someone to lean on—a safety valve when plays break down. That could mean a lot of dump-offs, and that combined with another 1,000-yard rushing season could easily put Sanders on the RB1 radar.
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Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
4 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 61
Cam Akers has had quite the up-and-down professional season. As a rookie, he showed flashes, but an Achilles tear the following offseason wiped out almost his entire second season.
In the first part of Year 3, the 24-year-old was a listless plodder who was believed by some to be in danger of losing his roster spot. But by the end of 2022, he peeled off a five-week stretch in which he was one of the most productive running backs in the entire NFL.
Rams head coach Sean McVay told reporters in April that he's confident Akers will be able to carry that success into his contract year:
"I think it's big. I think for him, anytime that you're able to have a level of success, and I think being able to go through what he did shows a lot about the human being. He was able to have over 500 [yards] in the last five games and really be able to be a bright spot for us. Cam's had a great look in his eye. [I] expect him to continue to build on the way that he finished."
If Akers can continue to produce at that same level, he will be a potential league-winner for fantasy managers. From Week 13 on last year, he was fourth among all running backs in PPR. And while some will point to this year's Rams team facing negative game scripts (they are, um, bad), it's not like last year's team was good, either.
Yes, L.A. brought back Sony "two yards and a cloud of blah" Michel, but the Florida State product should lead all the team's backs in touches by a wide margin.
If Akers can come close to repeating last year's stretch run, he has the potential to be one of fantasy's most valuable players in 2023.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 68
This one is probably the biggest long shot of the bunch. Rachaad White wasn't great in limited duty last year for the Buccaneers, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
But there are those who believe in the second-year pro. Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated noted that the 24-year-old's struggles last year had more to do with the team around him than the back himself:
"Within the context of how bad the Buccaneers' offensive line was last season, could we possibly view White's rookie season any differently? Perhaps this is as much of a projection as a statement: White will be Tampa Bay's primary back this season now that Leonard Fournette is out of the way. White caught 50 of the 58 balls thrown to him during his rookie season. Baker Mayfield checked the ball down more than any quarterback in the NFL last year. This season may be a grind, but it could be a productive one for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers' offensive line was among the worst in the NFL last year (Sports Info Solutions tracked their zone rushes as the least effective in the league). All of a sudden, 3.7 yards per carry doesn't look so pedestrian."
To be fair, Orr has a point, and if opportunity is king in fantasy football, then White is wearing a crown. The only running back the Bucs added in the offseason of any note is Chase Edmonds, who is no real threat to the 2022 third-rounder's workload.
There's also the matter of Tampa's prospects in 2023, which aren't great. The idea of a Bucs team playing catch-up means more passing late in games. That, in turn, means many more dump-offs from Mayfield to White, and every one of those passes is a point in PPR formats.
Come to think of it, maybe White isn't such a long shot after all.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
6 of 6
DraftSharks ADP: 74
They say good things come to those who wait. For Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison, it's true.
After several seasons as Dalvin Cook's understudy, it's now Mattison's show after the team released Cook in the offseason.
The 25-year-old told SiriusXM NFL Radio (h/t Michael Baca of NFL.com) he's put in extra work this offseason to prepare for his expanded role:
"With that understanding of knowing kind of where my role is going to be and maximize it. I've been a lot more prepared in the way of understanding where I'm going to be at in the playbook, where I'm going to have to be at physically, my stamina. It's just a whole bunch that I have to now take into account but without applying too much pressure, of course, because this is a game of ball that we have grown to love and grown to adapt to at all different levels. I'm definitely comfortable as a professional athlete and understanding what I have to do to get the job done. Now just cranking that thing up and getting ready for this opportunity that I have in front of me."
We have seen Mattison excel as Minnesota's lead back when Cook was out, despite the fact that he hasn't averaged four yards per carry either of the last two years.
In last year's season finale, the Boise State product averaged 5.4 yards per carry and scored two touchdowns. In three of his four starts for the Vikings in 2021, he posted at least 15 PPR points.
He may not be quite as dynamic as Cook, but he's a do-it-all back who should be set for a workload similar to the 275-300 touches his former teammate received on an annual basis.
The opportunity will be there for big numbers. Mattison just has to avail himself of it.
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