Buyer Beware: Which 2023 NBA Free Agents Should Teams Avoid?
NBA free agency should be the most risk-free form of player acquisition. Teams study their options, target the best fits and make offers. They don't have to give up anything but cash, and they've theoretically spent time comparing choices to ensure they make the right one.
In reality, offseason signings go horribly wrong all the time.
Teams get too enamored with big names to see the downsides. They mistakenly assume players who performed at a certain level with another team will do the same in a totally different situation. Sometimes, they simply spend too much.
Here, we're laying out a handful of free agents whom teams should be especially careful about signing. In some cases, the issue is one of fit. In others, it's value. And in one particular situation, it's about wasting time and resources on someone so good that his team won't hesitate to match an offer sheet.
Free agency is an exciting time on the NBA calendar, but it's also a dangerous one.
James Harden, Unrestricted
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For a 10-time All-Star with an MVP award and three scoring titles, James Harden is a surprisingly imperfect fit on teams all over the competitive spectrum.
Rebuilders shouldn't have any interest in paying max money to a declining, ball-dominant soon-to-be 34-year-old with a penchant for late nights and an aversion to defense. Contenders should be wary of spending lavishly on a player whose postseason track record is riddled with no-show efforts.
Harden averaged 21.0 points and a league-leading 10.7 assists per game last season, but he flamed out during the Philadelphia 76ers' disappointing second-round loss to the Boston Celtics. In the aftermath, recently fired head coach Doc Rivers said on the Bill Simmons Podcast that Harden was "challenging" to coach.
Whether the Sixers bring Harden back in hopes of making another run at a championship during Joel Embiid's prime or the Houston Rockets reel him in to fast-track their rebuild, he will come with massive risks attached. That isn't the profile of a max-salaried player, but Harden seems likely to cash in at that scale anyway.
If he signs a max contract with multiple guaranteed years, it won't be long before that deal is regarded as one of the worst in the league.
Any Miami Heat Free Agent
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The Miami Heat are better at unearthing gems than any other NBA franchise. Their scouting and player development programs turned Gabe Vincent and Max Strus from undrafted free agents into starters in the NBA Finals, and they're just the two latest examples.
Hassan Whiteside was out of the league for two full years before the Heat revived his career and turned him into a $90 million man. Tyler Johnson went from being an undrafted free agent to a double-digit scorer who commanded a $50 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets in 2016.
Dion Waiters was already turning into a journeyman before the Heat grabbed him in 2015 and coaxed the best three-year stretch of his career out of him.
Critically, every player mentioned was not only worse before getting to Miami, but also declined after leaving. Derrick Jones Jr. put up the best seasons of his career with the Heat, signed a hefty free-agent deal with the Portland Trail Blazers in 2020 and hasn't been an impact player since. Add Miami draftees like Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson to that list if you want to be more thorough. Neither was ever as effective outside of Miami.
The point: Whatever magic there is in Miami that pushes players to their absolute highest levels doesn't follow those players when they change teams. So while Strus and Vincent have mass appeal as reliable two-way guards who've played in plenty of high-leverage games, the assumption should be that neither will be as valuable upon leaving the Heat.
Austin Reaves, Restricted
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We've highlighted risks and generally badmouthed players to this point, so it's time to take a break from negativity by discouraging teams from bothering with Austin Reaves for reasons that are actually complimentary.
The 25-year-old put up 13.0 points, 3.4 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game last season, which doesn't scream that he's worth the roughly $100 million deal he's eligible to sign in free agency. But look a little deeper, and it's clear why the Los Angeles Lakers should immediately match any offer sheet Reaves signs with another team.
A collegiate point guard who produced an assist-to-usage ratio in the 91st percentile among wings last season, Reaves is also an immensely efficient scorer. His 68.7 true shooting percentage ranked fourth in the league among players who shot the ball at least 450 times, and he was in the 100th percentile in foul-drawing.
He didn't occupy this role on a starry Lakers team, but Reaves is capable of making a lead guard's impact on offense. He can generate his own looks, set up teammates and bury opponents as a catch-and-shoot sniper.
Any suitor that ties up its cap space by inking Reaves is wasting its time. The Lakers will match whatever offer sheet he signs.
Kyle Kuzma, Unrestricted
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Kyle Kuzma is a rotation-caliber forward who is hitting free agency (via player option) right in the middle of his prime. The soon-to-be 28-year-old even juiced his earning power by turning in a career year in 2022-23 with 21.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists across 64 games.
This is still a buyer-beware situation because last year was only the second of Kuzma's career (and first since 2018-19 with the Lakers) in which he managed a positive Estimated Plus/Minus figure. For the vast majority of his career, Kuzma has been a net-negative contributor.
Former teammate Spencer Dinwiddie suggested on FanDuel TV that Kuzma's list of priorities doesn't feature basketball at the top, and that he pushed for those numbers because of his impending free agency. Plenty of players level up with the extra motivation of an upcoming payday. Maintaining that level after acquiring the bag is another story.
Kuzma's age, position and production will get him paid, and he's worth a low-end starter's salary. But in light of his broad history of mostly empty numbers and Dinwiddie's comments, teams should at least avoid paying Kuzma as if he's a star. Anything over $20 million per year could be a mistake.
Draymond Green, Unrestricted
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Draymond Green is a surefire Hall of Famer and one of the best defenders in NBA history. Even had he not played his entire career with Stephen Curry, he still would have been a massive difference-maker.
That isn't the same thing as saying he'd be as impactful without Curry and the Warriors' system going forward, though. The 33-year-old Green won't necessarily influence winning on another team like he can with Golden State.
Green has 11 years of corporate knowledge and countless reps with the same core Warriors teammates. It'd be foolish to expect him to offer the same level of effectiveness in a different situation. Case in point: Green's minutes without Curry on the floor have coincided with negative point differentials in four of the last five seasons.
Any team thinking of bidding up his price to heights so extravagant that even the Warriors would balk at matching (looking at you, Sacramento Kings) should keep that in mind.
There was a time when Green could have made it work with any organization and any set of teammates. But that time has passed, and the best version of Green probably only exists in one location now: Golden State.
This could all be moot if the Warriors hand their four-time All-Star a contract worth upward of $80 million over three years. But if someone else swoops in with an offer too rich for Green to pass up, it won't end well.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
