Ranking the Futures of Every MLB Team Currently Under .500
As the midway point of this MLB season nears, much of the conversation will surround who is buying and selling at the trade deadline, which teams are true contenders and who are the front-runners for individual awards.
The further into the season, the more it's about celebrating greatness and focusing on the game's most relevant figures.
That is one reason why it's important now to take inventory of some have-nots in MLB. We're ranking the futures of every MLB team under .500 as of Thursday.
Some of these teams are borderline, fringe playoff contenders, either because of underperforming talent or playing in a weak division.
To rank their futures, we give consideration to their current roster makeup, as well as their farm system rankings by both B/R's Joel Reuter and MLB.com.
14. Oakland Athletics
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2023 Record: 19-52
Oakland does not appear to have much of a baseball future, both in terms of talent and the franchise's standing in the city. The Athletics hold the second-worst record and by far the worst run differential (-196) in the major leagues through 71 games.
Much of the A's talent has been traded away as they stockpile assets for the future, which still looks bleak. The most noteworthy part of their season so far is the reverse boycott their fans pulled off Tuesday imploring owner John Fisher to sell the team as he courts Las Vegas.
Then there's the farm system ranking in the bottom third of baseball. MLB.com noted in March how the drastic, full-on rebuild has yielded a high volume of prospects, but it's more quantity than quality, or depth as opposed to high-end talent.
13. Kansas City Royals
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2023 Record: 18-52
The Royals are in an awkward place where they are a mostly young, homegrown roster, just unsure of how good their young, homegrown talent is. They have not exactly made progress over the past two years as some of their prospects have become big leaguers.
Kansas City has the worst record in baseball going into Thursday's action, racing with Oakland to see which team will be last to 20 wins.
Then to add, the farm system has taken a hit as prospects graduate. So, now the Royals are putting out a bad major league product, along with one of the lowest-ranked farm systems in baseball.
If Kansas City is going to get out of the AL Central dungeon, it will rely on players like Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Brady Singer, Scott Barlow and others in the system to live up to expectations.
12. Detroit Tigers
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2023 Record: 28-39
Detroit's top prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene have both graduated, and now the Tigers lack the top-end talent that made their farm system so intriguing two years ago.
Meanwhile, it's just another fledgling team in the AL Central. The Tigers are 11 games under .500 and 10 games behind in the wild-card race with a run differential of -82, the third-worst in baseball ahead of only the Royals and A's.
There is no way around the fact that this is currently a bad baseball team, but so much of its future depends on Torkelson and Greene.
Torkelson has struggled at the plate since debuting last season. He posted a .604 OPS in 360 at-bats last season and .706 OPS through 243 at-bats this season. He's been better lately, a 1.017 OPS in the last seven games, which includes a 440-foot home run to help force extras and a walk-off single against Atlanta earlier this week.
Greene is having a good year, slashing .296/.362/.443 through 203 at-bats this season. It's a marked improvement from last year, when he hit .253 with a .683 OPS. But he is currently sidelined with a fibula injury.
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11. Colorado Rockies
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2023 Record: 29-42
Both B/R and MLB.com rank the Rockies' farm system at 14th. So, that's the sort-of bright side for Colorado, since the big league team is the only one in the NL West with a negative run differential and next-to no hope of making the playoffs.
Fortunately for Rockies fans, they do have four top-100 prospects and one of the strongest systems in baseball. MLB.com credits their mostly homegrown system with "a nice blend of the draft and international signings."
That's where Colorado's future is: Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, 21, who is taking his lumps and learning from mistakes in the big leagues; and outfielder Zac Veen, the 2020 first-round pick who is figuring things out in the minor leagues.
It's even more important the Rockies develop their young talent, given how unlikely they are as a free-agent destination for pitchers and their strange unwillingness to sell at the trade deadline.
10. Boston Red Sox
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2023 Record: 34-35
The Red Sox are easily the best of the worst teams in each respective division as no other division bottom feeder has more than 29 wins.
For that alone, you figure the Red Sox are one of the better-positioned losing teams because they are barely a losing team at all.
Still, this is an average farm system with a front office that's been fairly criticized for being too cautious about spending.
It's also fair to wonder how differently this team would look if Trevor Story was playing shortstop and Kiké Hernández was instead playing the outfield.
The Red Sox farm system is top heavy with infielders, but it's lacking pitching depth, which is where they are most lacking in the big leagues, too.
9. Chicago Cubs
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2023 Record: 31-37
For the first dozen or so games of the season, it looked like the Cubs could surprise some people. They had made a handful of free agent moves to bolster the roster, mainly signing Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini and Jameson Taillon.
The Cubs were top-10 in OPS by the end of May and with the St. Louis Cardinals reeling, seemed like a legitimate threat in the NL Central.
But those days feel like forever ago and the Cubs and are likely in position to sell at the deadline. Bellinger, with his expiring contract and high upside, seems like a prime trade candidate. There is the somewhat awkward contract situation with Marcus Stroman, where the Cubs' ace appears to have outperformed his contract and has a player option for next season.
With these players, the Cubs have credible trade chips to go along with one of the top farm systems.
8. Chicago White Sox
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2023 Record: 30-40
The White Sox are making some progress toward restocking their system after drafting shortstop Colson Montgomery in the first round two years ago and signing outfielder Oscar Colás last year.
It is also well-established how the White Sox tap into the Cuban market for prospects. They will find talent.
Perhaps the biggest way to do so is dealing away some of what they already have. Eloy Jiménez is wasting away on this team and could yield a decent return. Same with Tim Anderson Jr., even if to a lesser extent given his dip in performance.
Ace pitcher Dylan Cease has two more seasons of team control, so it makes sense not to be in a rush to move him. However, with the way it's gone for the White Sox over the past two years, almost everyone might benefit from a fresh start.
7. Washington Nationals
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2023 Record: 27-40
The Nationals are in a battle with the St. Louis Cardinals for worst team in the National League, so their immediate future is perilous.
It's been rough ever since that improbable 2019 World Series run for Washington. But the Nationals are in a position to turn things around.
They have a top-10 farm system, according to both B/R and MLB.com. This is really the only way to rebound from dealing away the likes of Juan Soto, Max Scherzer and Trea Turner over the last few years.
Now, the Nationals have at least five top-tier prospects and four in the top 100. Having the No. 2 overall pick in July should also help boost Washington's young corps.
6. Seattle Mariners
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2023 Record: 33-34
This is the first team mentioned that actually made the postseason last year. The Mariners get some benefit of the doubt after breaking the sport's longest postseason drought, then making moves to improve the roster over the offseason.
That doesn't negate the fact it has yet to translate as the Mariners struggle to stay around .500. They are a game under .500 and five games out of the Wild Card, but their record against teams above .500 is 13-23.
Which is to say, the Mariners don't measure up against the better teams in baseball the way they did a year ago. But the talent is still there, along with one of baseball's brightest stars in Julio Rodríguez.
The farm system has thinned out, but the roster is young with time to develop.
5. San Diego Padres
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2023 Record: 33-35
The Padres' future is bright because no way it can really stay this bad with this collection of talent, right?
And when we say bad, we're really talking about underachieving. The Padres entered Thursday just 2.5 games out of the Wild Card, a game under .500 with a +27 run differential.
You just expect so much more from a team led by stars like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto.
The Padres have shown they are willing to pay big money for a competitive roster, so their failure won't be for a lack of trying. Their farm system is nothing to write home about after making so many trades, so it's all about figuring out how to make these pieces fit.
From a talent standpoint, the Padres are the best team on this list.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
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2023 Record: 27-42
It does feel odd to have a team so bad still be this high on the list. That is a credit to the Cardinals' organization, finding and cultivating talent and then managing it well.
Except for this season, apparently. Bizarrely, the Cardinals enter play Friday with the worst winning percentage in the NL.
They are underperforming in a weak NL Central in which only one team has a winning record, and that team was the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of the true surprises of the season.
What's really strange about these Cardinals is how uncharacteristically poor they have been at fundamental baseball things for which they have been synonymous with "The Cardinal Way."
The defense has been subpar. Pitching and hitting has been out of sync; when one delivers, the other doesn't. Maybe it's just one of those weird years that's hard to explain.
As for the future, St. Louis has a top-10 farm system and a surplus of outfielders with the ability to retool if this season is the waste it appears to be.
3. Cincinnati Reds
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2023 Record: 34-35
The Reds are only a game behind .500, but only one game back in the NL Central. Their run differential is -29 with a 14-22 record against teams above .500.
It doesn't feel like the fringe playoff team that being 2.5 games out of the Wild Card would indicate. But they do have plenty of young talent.
The Reds are accumulating talent through both the draft and deadline trades. Third baseman Cam Collier, 18, Cincinnati's first-round pick from a year ago, is already a top 100 prospect.
They also traded for shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, perhaps redundant but both top 50 prospects. That's not to mention top prospect Elly De La Cruz, the 21-year-old switch-hitting infielder who could be the future of the franchise and has already looked the part in his nine games with the Reds.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, De La Cruz is only the second player since at least 1900 with a single, double, triple, homer and stolen base within his first three games.
Add Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl and Matt McClain to the mix, and the Reds suddenly have a promising young offensive core to go along with their young rotation.
2. New York Mets
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2023 Record: 32-36
It's safe to say things are not going as planned for the $350 million Mets. They won more than 100 games last year, then retooled with Justin Verlander as their marquee signing in free agency.
That move has yet to materialize, and the Mets are fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. They went from a 101-win Wild Card team last year, to now being four games out with a record negative run differential and a record below .500.
The reason their future has to be bright is because it's clear they have an owner who is willing to spend and keep spending until it works.
Steve Cohen has the money to do so, and the Mets have a respectable enough farm system to feel good about the talent they are developing to go along with Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty.
1. Cleveland Guardians
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2023 Record: 32-36
The Guardians have come back to earth after shocking the baseball world last year by winning 92 games for the AL Central title in a season when it did not appear they were trying to be competitive.
Now, Cleveland is right around where it was expected to be last year: scrappy and competitive but overall unserious due to limited power. Only two teams have a lower OPS, and the Guardians by far have the fewest home runs.
It's simply not enough offense to get it done.
But give the Guardians this much credit: They find and develop young talent as well as anyone. They have seven top-100 prospects, and some of the best ones are either nearing or just getting to the big leagues.
The Guardians can leverage their deep pool of pitching prospects to help yield better bats via trades.
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