1 NFL Player Who Will Make or Break Every Super Bowl Contender in 2023
Every Super Bowl contender has a most valuable player. And a highest-paid player. For most teams, that's the same guy—the quarterback.
Glory hogs, the lot of 'em.
However, every contending team also has a player who could be a fulcrum for the entire season to come. If they thrive, the sky is the limit. If they don't, disappointment looms on the horizon.
Three rules went into making this list.
First, no quarterbacks. All of them can make-or-break a season. Well, except in San Francisco, where it seems that whoever is clever.
Second, teams couldn't finish any lower than second in the division last year to make this list. The New York Giants are a good team. A playoff-caliber team. But they are also the third-best team in the NFC East. There are just too many obstacles between them and Vegas.
Third, an effort was made to dial back the star power. Tyreek Hill is important to the Miami Dolphins. Travis Kelce is important to the Kansas City Chiefs. We know that.
What some might not know is how important these players are to contenders in 2023.
Baltimore Ravens: WR Odell Beckham Jr.
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Yep, that's right. We're kicking things off with a new guy. Well, a new guy who is also an old guy.
It has been a while since we saw Odell Beckham on a football field.—his last reception was as a member of the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI. Beckham tore his ACL in that game, and missed all of the 2022 season.
Per Ryan Mink of the team's website, Beckham has been working out on his own since signing a one-year-deal with the Ravens—and he's feeling like he's ready to do some damage in 2023.
"I'm really on the way! It feels good to be able to 'train' and prepare for a [season] instead of just trying to throw it all together to be healthy enough to make it to the games," Beckham said. "[I'm] grateful for the time off I had to heal."
That's good news for the Ravens—because which Odell Beckham the Ravens get in 2023 is going to go a long way toward determining whether or not they can dethrone the Bengals in the AFC North.
Sure, the Ravens also added Zay Flowers in the 2023 draft. But Beckham is supposed to the key. The thing that Lamar Jackson has never really had, A true No. 1 wide receiver. A guy who can win 50/50 balls that Jackson chucks up after scramble drills.
A more versatile Ravens offense will make the team more dangerous—and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Buffalo Bills: OLB Matt Milano
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For years, Matt Milano has quietly gone about his business in Buffalo. The 28-year-old's stats last season weren't especially impressive (99 total tackles, 1.5 sacks, three interceptions), but his performance on the field was enough to merit inclusion as a first-team All-Pro.
Head coach Sean McDermott told reporters that Milano isn't a player who chirps a lot—he lets his play on the field do the talking.
"He doesn't say a lot, he's a little bit more on the quieter side," McDermott said. "He just goes about his business of improving. He's got a burning desire to get better every week. He takes things personally, which I think is good at times because he takes on the challenge."
Well, this year Milano is going to have to become more vocal—because it's likely going to fall to him to direct traffic for the Bills defense.
The Bills have numerous changes both on and off the field in 2023. McDermott is calling the defensive plays. With Tremaine Edmunds gone, a new player will be receiving those calls on the field.
It could be said that the young linebacker playing next to Milano is the real make-or-break player with Edmunds gone. But we don't know if it will be Tyrel Dodson, Terrel Bernard, Baylon Spector, or rookie Dorian Williams.
Whether it's Milano, Dodson, Bernard or Spector wearing the "green dot," it won't really matter. It's going to fall to Milano to lead a young linebacker corps. To make sure that everyone is where they should be when they should be.
Given the expectations that Buffalo's sixth-ranked defense has for the 2023 season, that's going to be quite the task.
Cincinnati Bengals: OT Jonah Williams
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It has been quite the eventful offseason for Cincinnati Bengals tackle Jonah Williams. First there was the stunning deal that brought Orlando Brown Jr. to Cincinnati. Then a trade request from Williams.
However, to date the Bengals have expressed exactly zero desire to accede to Williams' request, and at the league owners' meetings Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said that he fully expects Williams to accept his new role as right tackle in Cincinnati.
"I like everything about Jonah. I'm excited to see him come in and compete at right tackle," Taylor said, via the team's official website. "He's always been everything we wanted him to be about. We've never had issues with him. Hopefully, we can work through this, and he can come in and compete at right tackle for us. That's what we're counting on him to do … He's never been an issue and I don't anticipate that being an issue."
Williams doesn't really have any leverage here, so Taylor is likely right that he'll eventually report. The question then becomes whether Williams will be any good at it.
Simply put, Williams was a hot mess last year. Per Pro Football Focus, Williams allowed a staggering dozen sacks in 2022.
The Bengals don't have a ton of options here. La'El Collins tore his ACL last December. Jackson Carman has had his own struggles and is better suited to playing guard.
The Bengals need Williams to make this transition—or else an offensive line that has been a glaring issue for years will continue to be Cincinnati's biggest weakness.
Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyron Smith
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For years, the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys was a strength. In fact, the Cowboys line was the league's gold standard. And to be fair, Dallas Robinson of Pro Football Network still listed the Cowboys as the fifth-best line in the league.
If the Cowboys are going to catch the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East, that line can't afford to backslide. The Cowboys may be replete with skill-position talent, but it won't matter if the line can't hold up.
And the key to that line—the player that used to be its linchpin—is veteran tackle Tyron Smith.
Mind you, Smith may not be playing left tackle in 2023. Tyler Smith fared well there last year, drawing kudos from head coach Mike McCarthy,
"I don't know if Tyler Smith can play any better as a rookie," McCarthy told reporters. "I don't know how the awards shook out, but for him to accomplish what he accomplished. You know, I saw Will Shields go in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1993. I don't think he came out for 16 years. So that's a comparable I have for him, because what he did this year playing two positions, I think is unbelievable. So, he's got a great foundation."
However, the Cowboys have issues at right tackle—Terence Steele suffered through an injury-marred 2022. After losing Connor McGovern to free agency, there has been talk of moving Smith inside to left guard.
That's the best-case scenario—Smith at left guard, Steele at right tackle and Smith back in the spot where he earned a whopping eight Pro Bowl nods.
But that only works if the 32-year-old Smith can turn back the clock and stay healthy.
Jacksonville Jaguars: EDGE Travon Walker
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Yep. That's right. We're including the Jaguars as Super Bowl contenders. They won a playoff game last year and are pretty clearly the best team in the AFC South.
But to make any real noise in the playoffs, the Jaguars have to improve a defense that was 24th overall, 28th against the pass and 26th in sacks.
It's not at all unusual for even highly touted defensive linemen to struggle a bit acclimating to the NFL. Even superstars like Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns had relatively modest first years. But in 2023, it's time for Travon Walker to start playing like the first overall pick in the draft.
At the NFL's league meetings, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that he expects major growth from Walker in his second season.
"Just like Trevor, we can only go up, right?" Pederson said. "He can be a really dominant impact player for us, and this will be a good plus: He'll have an offseason to kind of rest, too. This time last year, he was going with [pre-draft] visits and the [NFL Scouting] Combine. Now he's had a chance to kind of recover, heal, get back in the weight room and start working on his craft."
The Jaguars don't have an especially stout secondary, which makes it all the more important that Jacksonville's front seven generates pressure against opposing quarterbacks.
If Walker can't be a force in that regard, then Jacksonville's postseason aspirations are little more than a pipe dream.
Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE George Karlaftis
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Some may be surprised that a wide receiver like Kadarius Toney isn't listed here. But the Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. And Travis Kelce. One of their young wideouts is going to step up. The Chiefs will score points and chew up yardage.
In bunches.
But if the Chiefs are going to achieve dynasty status and win a third Super Bowl in four years, the team is going to need high-level play of defense, too.
And George Karlaftis is going to have to be a big part of that.
Karlaftis has already shown flashes of being able to make a major impact. Of his six sacks as a rookie, 5.5 came from Week 11 on. He spent part of the offseason working out with former Chiefs standout Tamba Hali on hand placement by practicing jiu jitsu. And Hali said on social media he thinks it can help Karlaftis take his game to the next level.
"We work pass rush in the evening, and now, George and I are doing a little Jui Jitsu to understand how important technique is [for] pass rushing and mindset," Hali said. "And now, obviously, after a couple of classes here with Dave Smarr — our head instructor here in Kansas City — George is solid, you're gifted. And then there are those that know technique — and are gifted — and they uplift their game to the next level."
The Chiefs still have defensive tackle Chris Jones, and the team used a first-rounder this year on Kansas State's Felix Anudike-Uzomah. But after losing Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap, Karlaftis is the team's leader on the edge,
And when you're in high-scoring games with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, that pressure off the edge (or lack thereof) matters.
Los Angeles Chargers: ILB Eric Kendricks
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Well, if the Jaguars are a Super Bowl contender, then I guess the Los Angeles Chargers are as well.
I'm just an inclusive kinda guy.
Just like the Jaguars, the Chargers have all kinds of firepower on offense. And like the Jags, the Bolts have issues on defense. The difference is, where in Jacksonville the issue was stopping the pass, for the Chargers, it was a defense that ranked 28th in the league against the run.
Los Angeles took steps to address that deficiency in the offseason, signing veteran inside linebacker Eric Kendricks. Chargers head coach Brandon Staley told reporters that in addition to being an excellent player, the hope is that Kendricks will also be a stabilizing force across the entire defense.
"In the NFL, anytime you play a position that's in the middle — inside linebacker, safety, quarterback, center — you have to be a connector," Staley said. "That's part of your value to the football team. It goes far beyond height, weight, speed. As good of a player as he is, the fact that he has that type of leadership capacity multiplies his impact. … Watching him from afar, the respect I have for him not just as a player but as a leader … you're talking about the highest caliber that you can join up with."
With the exception of his rookie year, Kendricks has eclipsed 100 tackles every year he's been in the league. If he can shore up the middle of the Chargers defense, the Bolts might just be able to give the Chiefs a run for their money in the AFC West.
Miami Dolphins: OT Austin Jackson
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The Miami Dolphins are loaded with offensive firepower. The team made an impact trade on defense for the second year in a row with the acquisition of star defensive back Jalen Ramsey.
But none of that is going to matter if the Dolphins can't do a better job of protecting Tua Tagovailoa in 2023.
For most teams, the most important aspect of doing so would fall to left tackle Terron Armstead. But Tagovailoa is a southpaw, which flips the script—and puts Austin Jackson in charge of protecting Tagovailoa's blind side.
Jackson's 2022 season was all but wiped out by an ankle injury. But prior to that his NFL career had been uneven at best. Jackson only allowed two sacks in 2021, but per PFF he was flagged a whopping 12 times. As a rookie he was a turnstile across the board—equally awful against the run and the pass.
The Dolphins have already passed on Jackson's fifth-year option, but he told reporters that last year's lost campaign was a learning experience.
"I learned how to grow as a professional. I had an injury going into a contract year. I didn't play in my third year, an option year," Jackson said, referring to a right ankle injury that limited him to two games last season. "With these things around you, how do you focus on doing what you got to do? That was one of the big things for me, staying focused."
This is a career-defining season for Jackson. Have a bad camp, and it could be Isaiah Wynn at right tackle in Week 1. And given Wynn's career to date, that would essentially mean the same problem with a different jersey number.
Minnesota Vikings: CB Byron Murphy Jr.
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Calling the Minnesota Vikings a Super Bowl contender is probably pushing it. But they won 13 games last year and are the defending NFC North champions, so we'll pretend here that they have a chance of beating San Francisco or Philadelphia in the postseason.
For that to be any more than a fantasy, Minnesota's dismal pass defense has to improve by leaps and bounds—and the key to that improvement is free agent signee Byron Murphy.
For his part, Murphy told reporters that he's eager to put last year's injury-marred campaign in Arizona behind him.
"Last year, first time actually getting injured, sitting out that many games kind of brought me back to reality," Murphy said. "I got a big edge on me, a lot of things on my mind. Definitely got an edge and gotta prove myself this year."
It's not just that Murphy has to assume the role of No. 1 cornerback for the Vikings. He has to be a leader for a young group of corners. Make the players around him better.
To be brutally honest, it's not especially likely. Murphy is a good cornerback, but he isn't a great one—in two of his four pro seasons (including 2022) he posted a passer rating against of over 100.
Murphy has to be better—or the Vikings won't make the playoffs at all.
Philadelphia Eagles: ILB Nakobe Dean
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The 2022 season was rather an odd one for Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean. Regarded by some as the top off-ball linebacker prospect in his class, Dean fell to the third round of the draft over durability concerns. Dean went to the Super Bowl as a rookie, but he did so as a spectator—the former Georgia star played less than 40 snaps as a rookie.
However, things figure to be much different in 2023. With both T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White leaving in free agency, there will be a new pair of starters at inside linebacker for the Eagles this season. Per Dave Spadaro of the team's website, Dean is looking forward to claiming a more prominent role in his second season.
"Opportunities are endless. Anything that is available for me to do, I'm trying to be the best to ever do it," he said. "I don't strive to just be a player. I don't strive to just be an extra in this movie. I strive to be the main character. I feel like you should always strive to be the best, the best version of yourself. I feel like if you go in throughout the season and throughout my career and I'm the best version of myself, the rest will take care of itself.
Dean isn't just being counted on as a starter—if OTAs are any indication, Dean will also wear the "green dot" helmet communicator and relay the defensive playcalls. Dean is a wildly talented player who may well thrive in the new role. But if he struggles or those durability concerns crop up, the Eagles don't have a lot on the depth chart behind him and veteran Nicholas Morrow.
San Francisco 49ers: WR Deebo Samuel
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San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel is the biggest name on this list. Two years ago, Samuel was a force, topping 1,700 total yards and finding the end zone 14 times. But while the Niners made it back to the NFC Championship Game in 2022, Samuel's productivity plummeted.
Partly, that was a matter of injuries—Samuel missed four games. But between the arrival of running back Christian McCaffrey and the ascension of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel's role in the offense changed drastically. His yards per catch fell from 18.2 in 2021 to 11.3 in 2022. His yards per target free-fell from 11.6 to 6.7. His average depth of target was nearly cut in half—from 8.4 two years ago to 4.3.
Samuel went from being a dangerous two-way threat who was a focal point of the offense to a guy getting five-yard dump-offs.
Per the team's website, Samuel said that he's more concerned with being a leader and a teammate than his statistical production.
"I want to leave a legacy on the field as a guy that worked hard," Samuel said, "just put his body on the line week in and week out for his team and was a great teammate."
The thing is though, if the 49ers are going to surpass the Eagles and make it to Las Vegas and Super Bowl LVIII, they need the 2021 Samuel. They need that dual-threat capability. The Niners need that and McCaffrey and Aiyuk catching passes down the field and George Kittle doing damage over the middle.
They need an offense that even Philly's vaunted defense just doesn't have an answer for. One with too many formidable possibilities to defend.
Seattle Seahawks: S Jamal Adams
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The Seattle Seahawks are another team for whom status as a Super Bowl contender may be shaky. But given that one year ago at this time most of us thought they were headed for a top-five pick, this is a franchise that has shown some aptitude for surprises.
With that said, if Seattle's 2023 playoff trip is going to be more than a fluke, the team's 26th-ranked defense needs to improve—markedly. The Seahawks have taken steps in that regard, whether it was bringing back linebacker Bobby Wagner and signing safety Julian Love and defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones in free agency or adding cornerback Devon Witherspoon in the draft.
But there's another player who might make the biggest difference of all. A potential chess piece. A wild card. A maker of mayhem. A difference-maker.
The Seahawks need Jamal Adams back.
Per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, Seahawks general manager John Schneider admitted that the Seahawks aren't sure the 27-year-old will be ready for camp.
"He's doing well. The company answer is that we don't know exactly the timeline. Very bad injury, very unfortunate for Jamal," Schneider said. "He's had two years now where he's been banged up. We want to be really careful with his progression, so training camp I'm just not sure. We'll see where he is when he comes in for the OTAs."
Being ready for camp isn't as important as being ready for the opener. The Seahawks need Adams' ability to play nickel linebacker. His elite ability to rush the passer from the secondary.
The Seahawks need an identity defensively.
Wagner and Adams together again could do that. But without that tone-setter?
More of the same.
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