5 Questions New Penguins President Kyle Dubas Must Answer
After weeks of speculation the Pittsburgh Penguins have officially hired Kyle Dubas to take over their front office.
The Penguins announced the hiring of Dubas on Thursday morning, revealing that he will take over as the team's president of hockey operations.
He will be the second person to ever hold that role for the team, following the recently fired Brian Burke.
The Penguins' front office has gone through a complete overhaul since the 2022-23 season came to a disappointing end with the team missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2005-06 season.
Dubas, meanwhile, only became available after he and the Maple Leafs parted ways shortly after their Second Round loss to the Florida Panthers.
Dubas and the Penguins seem like a natural fit. He was the biggest and most prominent name available for a front-office role and his analytically driven background fits in with what Fenway Sports Group wants in a front office.
Now that the 37-year-old has his role and the Penguins have their person to lead the organization, Dubas will have several questions to deal with in the coming weeks and months.
Let's dig into them.
Who Will Be the Penguins' General Manager?
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The most obvious question is who actually fills that role of GM?
Will Dubas handle both duties for the time being? Or will he act quickly to bring in somebody else to work under him?
No matter the answer to those questions, the person tasked with that role will have quite a mess to clean up in the aftermath of Ron Hextall's reign of error.
Prior to the hiring of Dubas, some of the more prominent names mentioned in the Penguins' GM search included Carolina assistant Eric Tulsky, Tampa Bay assistant Mathieu Darche, and former Buffalo Sabres GM Jason Botterill.
Dubas could theoretically circle back on some of those names, or he could go in a completely different direction.
Brandon Stidham, Toronto's assistant to the general manager, could be somebody on Dubas' list given his familiarity and recent work history, while Frank Seravalli mentioned Cam Lawrence as a possibility. Lawrence is currently an analytics consultant with the Columbus Blue Jackets, lives in Pittsburgh and previously worked for the Florida Panthers.
Dubas might not have been perfect in his role as general manager of the Maple Leafs when it came to piecing together the on-ice roster -- his failure to find a consistent goalie a glaring omission on his resume -- but he did do an outstanding job building a front office and giving the organization a real sense of direction.
Those are two things the Penguins badly need following the Burke/Hextall years.
What Does This Mean for Mike Sullivan?
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Anytime a new front office takes over a team with a holdover head coach the question of a change has to be asked.
Sullivan is still under contract, and remains a favorite of the Penguins' current ownership group.
At his introductory press conference on Thursday, Dubas indicated that Sullivan is not going anywhere.
Even though the team has hit a plateau with him in terms of playoff success, failing to advance beyond the First Round of the playoffs since 2018, he remains a highly respected coach with two Stanley Cup rings on his resume.
It is entirely possible that ownership made keeping Sullivan, at least into the season, a conditional part of taking the job.
Ever since Dubas' name was floated as a possibility for the Penguins there was speculation that he could want to bring in his own coach -- specifically Sheldon Keefe, his former head coach in Toronto -- which could open the door for Sullivan to take another high profile job with, say, the New York Rangers. Larry Brooks of the New York Post has been pushing this theory for weeks now. That always seemed like a stretch and wishful thinking given all of the moving parts that would have needed to actually happen.
The most likely outcome is that Sullivan keeps his job in Pittsburgh into the season, even if he is on a short leash. Maybe a change gets made if the team gets off to a slow start, or after the season if the Penguins have another disappointing season.
Assuming he remains with the team Sullivan is probably very welcoming of the change given the rocky relationship he reportedly had with the previous front office.
What Happens with the Core Three of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang?
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Answer: Probably nothing.
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang have been the foundation of the Penguins' roster since they first started playing together as a trio during the 2006-07 season.
During that time they have been the foundation of the league's most successful franchise and put together individual Hall of Fame careers. Finishing those careers together has been important to both them, and the organization.
So much so that they were all brought back prior to the start of the 2022-23 season, with Malkin and Letang signing new contract extensions to keep them from hitting unrestricted free agency.
On one hand, their return is not why the Penguins failed this past season.
Crosby and Malkin both played a full 82-game season in the same year for the first time in their careers. They were not only still wildly productive, they drove almost all of the team's offense. When at least one of them was on the ice during 5-on-5 play, the Penguins outscored teams by a 119-101 margin and averaged 3.06 goals per 60 minutes. When neither was on the ice? They were outscored 49-71 and averaged just 1.85 goals per 60 minutes.
A team that has not won a playoff series in five years certainly needs some change, especially after missing the playoffs.
But this is not where the change needs to come from. They can still play and they can still play at a high level.
Ownership wants them together, they all have no-trade clause protections in their contracts and the reality is that the Penguins are not going to find more production for a better price against the salary cap than what these three still provide.
As a trio they still only count just $20.9 million against the salary cap. They are getting way more value out of them than that.
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How Does He Improve the League's Oldest Roster with Limited Cap Room?
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Working within the constraints of a salary-cap crunch is not going to be a new experience for Dubas.
The cap situation in Toronto was notoriously tight given the huge contracts to Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares, and he always seemed to find ways to find cheap, productive players that could complement that core.
He is going to have his work cut out for him here.
As long as Crosby, Malkin and Letang are on the roster, there is going to be a desire to compete and win. Despite the lack of success this past season, that is still possible.
The challenge is going to be finding a way to make the team younger and faster given the salary cap situation and a farm system that is short on talent.
Dubas is not afraid to use draft picks as trade capital and he could create some additional salary-cap flexibility with a strategic buyout or two. The Penguins enter the offseason with around $20 million in salary cap space, but could increase that to around $24 million if they were to buyout somebody like Mikael Granlund. That could lead to an interesting offseason with some real potential.
In some areas, he might be stuck.
Jeff Carter is locked in with a no-movement clause. Jeff Petry's contract would almost certainly require significant cash retained or a heckuva sweetener thrown in to move. The core three is, as mentioned above, not going anywhere.
His best trade asset might be the Penguins' first-round pick, which currently sits at No. 14 overall. Given the success rate of that pick historically (about a 50-50 chance of finding an NHL regular), how far away it would be from impacting the NHL team, and the apparent hope for a playoff spot this season there would be almost no reason for the Penguins to actually make that selection. The odds of them finding a player that will meaningfully impact a post-Crosby/Malkin/Letang rebuild are slim, while they might be able to acquire somebody that can help them in the short-term with a core that is still capable of competing.
Who Will Be His Goalie?
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The elephant in the room with the Penguins is in net.
This is the one position that has consistently failed them the past three years for one reason or another.
In 2020-21 it was Tristan Jarry having a meltdown in the playoffs with no capable backup to take over for him. With even average goaltending they probably beat the Islanders in six games.
In 2021-22 it was Jarry and Casey DeSmith both being injured in the playoffs, forcing third-string goalie Louis Domingue into action. With even competent goaltending they waltz by the New York Rangers in five games.
In 2022-23 it was a series of injuries that sabotaged a promising first half that held the team back. DeSmith was not consistent in filling in for him, while Jarry was rushed back into action and never regained the form he showed in the first half of the season.
DeSmith is the only goalie currently under contract for the 2023-24 season, with Jarry set to be an unrestricted free agent this summer.
The free-agent market for goalies is so thin that Jarry might be the top option available. The problem with Jarry is that he has shown flashes of being a very good NHL starter. He has been an All-Star two different times and has posted very solid numbers for significant portions of his career. But he has been injured so much over the past two years and has not yet shown he can be the answer in the playoffs that it makes it difficult to invest big money on him for a long-term contract.
DeSmith is not a realistic option as a starter, and unless they figure out a way to dip into the trade market.
The other option is rolling the dice on Jarry staying healthy and bouncing back. Given the way Dubas and Toronto handled its goaltending situation a year ago (trading for Matt Murray and signing Ilya Samsonov) Jarry might be the exact type of goalie he would target if he were a free agent coming from another team. A talented goalie with some history of success but struggling with injuries and inconsistency. Maybe he puts it all together.
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