B/R Staff Predictions: Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets 2023 NBA Finals
After sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers, the Denver Nuggets have been awaiting their 2023 NBA Finals opponent for over a week. Now that the Miami Heat have finished off a grueling seven-game series against the Boston Celtics, we finally know the matchup. And it provides plenty of angles for analysis.
How will the Heat defend Nikola Jokić? Will Jimmy Butler continue to dominate on both ends of the floor? Is the Caleb Martin we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals here to stay? Will Miami have to put Butler on Jamal Murray?
Many of the answers to those questions (and others) are probably concerning for the Heat and their fans. Denver is, understandably, a minus-450 favorite to win the series, but Miami shouldn't be taken lightly. It already beat each of the top two seeds in the East.
There are real arguments to pick either finalist, and you'll find some iron-clad ones from Bleacher Report's NBA staff below.
Can the Heat Keep Up with Denver's Pace?
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I have too much respect for what the Heat have done to send them home in a quick series, but the Denver Nuggets are the favorites for a reason.
Nikola Jokić's passing could render Miami's zone useless, and I'd expect him to make Bam Adebayo work exceptionally hard on defense—perhaps so hard that he won't have the energy to provide much on the other end. That could be a huge problem for a Heat team that will need loads of points to keep pace with Denver's attack.
In addition to Jokić short-circuiting the zone, he'll also make it difficult for the Heat to switch. Gabe Vincent, Jimmy Butler, Max Strus and Caleb Martin don't have the size to be anything but a speed bump against the Serb.
Butler will probably get Miami one win on his own, and the Heat are liable to go 12-of-25 from deep at least once. That'll get them a pair of victories, but not the four they'll need to knock Denver off.
Denver in six.
Good Luck Solving the Jokić Puzzle
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What the Heat have done during these playoffs is astounding—inexplicable yet, at this point, entirely convincing. Any dismissal of their Finals stock will be interpreted, by some, as willful ignorance.
It's not. The Nuggets are simply that good.
Questions about Denver's defense persist, but they're shrinking in number. Head coach Michael Malone has plenty of different lineup buttons to press. The top of the Nuggets rotation has generally held its own all year, and the team has fielded some stingy bench-heavy lineups in the postseason that buy time when Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray or both take a seat.
Facing a 4D tactician like Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra might test Denver's offense. Then again, the Nuggets offense is more of a test for the Heat defense. Jokić is a zone-buster on his own, and he's complemented by a symphony of off-ball activity.
Miami can try gluing Bam Adebayo to the Serb or using him as a roamer while someone else shoulders that lift. It won't matter. The Nuggets' offensive portfolio is too deep and versatile and, most critically, not subject to the highly variable swings the Heat saw against Milwaukee, New York and Boston.
Nuggets in five.
Bet Against Playoff Jimmy?
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The Denver Nuggets seem the obvious choice with two-time MVP Nikola Jokić in their ranks. But then again, the Milwaukee Bucks were the obvious choice over the Miami Heat. And for many, so were the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.
However, none of them survived the perplexing, resilient Heat.
Miami should be tired, fresh off a Game 7, but the Nuggets are at a disadvantage with a long layoff since the Western Conference Finals.
Look for Miami to get Game 1 and put Denver on its heels early in the series. That's not to suggest the Nuggets will go down easily; this will be a dogfight. The team's starting five is fantastic, but Jimmy Butler has willed his team this far.
Picking against Miami has been a losing effort all postseason.
Heat in six.
Talent Gap Too Wide
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The Heat were nearly knocked out of the play-in tournament and have punched above their weight class this entire postseason, but they don't have enough to take down the Nuggets.
Denver not only has home-court advantage, it's arguably the best home-court advantage in the league. Including the playoffs, the Nuggets are 42-7 at home and last lost at Ball Arena in mid-March. And don't forget, they are well-rested after wrapping up the Western Conference Finals last Monday.
Nikola Jokić is the best chess piece in this series. If Miami tasks Bam Adebayo with stopping the 28-year-old alone, the two-time MVP will keep the scoreboard spinning. If the Heat throw more at him—either doubling him or zoning up—he'll pick them apart with his playmaking and patience. If they somehow contain him (doubtful, as he had a comical 69/66.7/100 shooting slash in their two regular-season meetings), then they may be stretched too thin to stop Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and the rest of this supporting cast.
If (when?) Miami's shooters cool off, the Heat don't have a great counterpunch beyond hoping Jimmy Butler can summon another monster performance. The possible return of Tyler Herro doesn't really change that, either. He'll drag down the defense and disrupt the rotation, and who knows how rusty he'll be after sitting out nearly two months.
The Heat have experience on this stage and a mastermind coach in Erik Spoelstra, but at some point, their talent deficit will catch up to them. This is that point.
The Nuggets are good enough to make this a short series.
Nuggets in five.
Denver's Series for the Taking
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The Miami Heat are a worthy Finals participant. They beat Giannis Antetokounmpo and the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games. They beat the New York Knicks in six. And they authored one of the grittiest wins in recent memory by moving past a gut-wrenching Game 6 loss to the Boston Celtics and finishing them off in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Miami also has a bona fide superstar in Jimmy Butler, who's averaging 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.1 steals this postseason. It's getting more than Heat fans could've possibly hoped for from Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson and Max Strus. While probably true, calling this a "Cinderella story" is starting to feel a bit like selling this team short.
But now that those pleasantries are out of the way, this championship feels like the Denver Nuggets' for the taking. There's a reason (or reasons) they're the heavy favorites leading into Game 1.
First and most important, they have the best basketball player in the world in Nikola Jokić. And Miami's best option against him, Bam Adebayo, is closer to Aaron Gordon's size than he is to the two-time MVP's. That's just the start of the matchup problems.
If the Heat put Jimmy Butler on Jamal Murray (which seems like a necessity at some point), who'll guard the 6'8" Gordon? Or what about 6'10" Michael Porter Jr.? Even Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is essentially the same size as Martin, who's operated as a nominal 4 for Miami.
And if the Heat switch to the zone that had so much success against the Celtics, Denver has, arguably, the best playmaker in the world and enough shooting around him to light it up.
There are a bunch of questions and really no good answers for Miami in this series. Butler, excellent coaching and #HeatCulture won't allow this team to get swept, but this should be where its carriage turns back into a pumpkin.
Denver in five.
Final Prediction
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Denver Nuggets: 4
Miami Heat: 1
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