First Super Bowl? Ranking Each NFL Team's Likelihood to Win First Lombardi in 2023
Exactly 20 NFL franchises have won at least one Super Bowl—a number that hasn't changed since the Philadelphia Eagles finally joined that club at the conclusion of the 2017 season.
However, based on odds from DraftKings, two of the top five Super Bowl favorites (and seven of the top 17) are teams that have never claimed the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Let's look at those seven as well as the five other Super Bowl-less teams and their chances of breaking through in 2023.
Buffalo Bills
1 of 12
Only the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and defending NFC champ Philadelphia Eagles have better odds in Vegas than a Buffalo Bills team that outscored its opponents by an AFC-high 169 points in 2022 and is bringing back most key pieces.
That, of course, includes perennial prime MVP candidate Josh Allen at quarterback.
The Bills have been snake-bitten often in the past, but it does feel like it's only a matter of time for this version of a team that has lost four Super Bowls.
And keep in mind that the recent odds are stacked against the Chiefs repeating. That's something nobody has done successfully in nearly two decades. And in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders, Buffalo was better than K.C. (and every other team in football) in 2022.
Likelihood: 10%
Cincinnati Bengals
2 of 12
The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Bills in Buffalo in last year's playoffs, and they fell just short of winning the Super Bowl in the preceding campaign. Like Buffalo, they have an elite young quarterback. And they were also a top-six team in terms of both DVOA and scoring margin in 2022.
Throw in that the offensive line and defense both look better on paper and Cincinnati is absolutely in the mix with the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles and the other 2022 NFC finalist, the San Francisco 49ers.
Likelihood: 10%
Detroit Lions
3 of 12
The Detroit Lions haven't won a playoff game since 1991, so we don't want to get carried away here. Still, they had the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the NFL last season and they capped the campaign with five wins in their last six games.
Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson should make the defense better, so if quarterback Jared Goff can build off of a strong 2022 campaign, the Lions could have a real shot under motivational head coach Dan Campbell.
It also helps that the AFC has eight of the top 12 Super Bowl faves, and that the vulnerable-looking NFC North could pave the way for the Lions to be particularly well positioned come January.
Likelihood: 7%
Cleveland Browns
4 of 12
The Cleveland Browns certainly did not look like a contender for much of the 2022 season, but keep in mind that they didn't have quarterback Deshaun Watson for a large chunk of said campaign.
Things could easily change if the third-highest-rated passer in NFL history excels in his first full season as a Brown in 2023, especially because Cleveland absolutely has the talent on both sides of the ball. There are very few obvious weak spots on that roster.
Still, though, the AFC is stacked and their work is cut out for them.
Likelihood: 4%
Jacksonville Jaguars
5 of 12
The Trevor Lawrence factor has the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Super Bowl conversation, or at least the fringe of said talks following a 2022 campaign that featured a thrilling playoff victory over the Chargers.
It was a quiet offseason beyond that for Jacksonville, but the team does have plenty of young talent, a potential superstar-in-the-making at quarterback and whatever taste is left over from a five-game winning streak to end the '22 season along with an inspiring postseason showing.
We're telling you there's a chance.
Likelihood: 4%
Los Angeles Chargers
6 of 12
It's fair to be concerned about the Los Angeles Chargers after they blew a massive lead in last year's wild-card loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but an all-around talented roster and the potential trajectory of 25-year-old elite quarterback Justin Herbert keeps them in the mix entering 2023.
Herbert's had some big moments early in his career for a Bolts team that won 10 games in a tough division last year and has always given the mighty Chiefs plenty of trouble.
It's possible last year's collapse was a learning experience that will make Brandon Staley, Herbert and the rest of that team better. But the competition is still pretty damn steep in that division and conference, and it's hard to give these guys the benefit of the doubt at this point.
Likelihood: 3%
Minnesota Vikings
7 of 12
The Minnesota Vikings were technically a playoff team in 2022, but they also posted a negative scoring margin and ranked 27th in DVOA. As a result, there's a good chance they'll inch closer to rebuild mode in 2023.
Still, you never know with hot-and-cold quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is at least now supported by intriguing rookie receiver Jordan Addison as well as a revamped defense coached by Brian Flores.
What's more, the path might not be too treacherous coming out of the shaky NFC North.
It's extremely unlikely this franchise with four Super Bowl losses suddenly gets off that schneid, but wilder things have happened.
Likelihood: 2%
Tennessee Titans
8 of 12
The Tennessee Titans are in a similar spot with aging 1-2 offensive duo Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry.
You never want to rule those guys out, and the Titans usually fight for high-quality head coach Mike Vrabel. So they're at least above the miniscule range in terms of Super Bowl chances.
That said, they're in the tougher of the two conferences and they're realistically closer to a rebuild than a Lombardi Trophy following a bottom-10 DVOA campaign in 2022 and a "meh" offseason.
Likelihood: 2%
Atlanta Falcons
9 of 12
The final five teams on this list all rank in the bottom seven in terms of Super Bowl odds at DraftKings, but from my perspective the real cliff exists between the Titans and these next four rebuilding squads, starting with the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta, like Tennessee, won seven games last year. But there's no Tannehill-Henry duo to suddenly shock the world on this roster, and a defense that ranked 30th in DVOA in 2022 still has a ways to go.
So, too, does quarterback Desmond Ridder. And it's 2023, so don't look for rookie back Bijan Robinson to carry anyone to a Super Bowl.
The Falcons should realistically be thinking about 2024.
Likelihood: 1%
Carolina Panthers
10 of 12
The Panthers also won seven games in a bad NFC South last season, and I guess you never know what rookie No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young might have in him with a decent supporting cast in 2023.
Still, Carolina was a bottom-five DVOA team in 2022. This will take some time, especially with Christian McCaffrey long gone and growing pains inevitably on the horizon. A rookie quarterback has never won a Super Bowl as a starter.
Likelihood: < 1%
Arizona Cardinals
11 of 12
The talented Kyler Murray keeps the Arizona Cardinals out of the bottom spot here, because you never know what Murray might suddenly do in his fifth professional season.
Problem is, Murray could spend much of the season recovering from a torn ACL, and he's surrounded by one of the worst rosters in the NFL. Deandre Hopkins' release realistically confirmed that the Cards are starting from scratch around Murray, which means it ain't happening in 2023.
Likelihood: < 1%
Houston Texans
12 of 12
You also never know with C.J. Stroud in the case of the Houston Texans. But again, it's never happened to a rookie QB in 57 years of the Super Bowl era.
Besides, there just isn't enough talent there anyway. The Texans had the league's third-worst scoring margin and ranked 31st in DVOA last season.
In the tougher of the two conferences, this rebuild is going to take some time.
Likelihood: < 1%
.jpg?w=600 "Top Players Still Available 🔢")
.jpg?w=600 "Cards Had Wrong Love Number 😅")
.jpg?w=600 "Rams' Post-Draft Presser 😐")
.jpg?w=600 "Fans React to Simpson Pick 😱")