Dark-Horse Candidates to Win NFL's Biggest Awards in 2023

It's still a long time until the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions kick off the 2023 season on September 7. It's a longer time still until Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas on February 11.

But NFL fans are an impatient lot. Sure, OTAs have only just begun around the league, but folks are ready to speculate about the season to come. About which teams will make the postseason. What squads will face off in Las Vegas in February. Which players are going to shine and/or disappoint in 2023.

And even which players will win the NFL's major individual awards at the next NFL Honors.

That's the route we're going to go here. But we aren't taking the easy road. No siree. You won't see any mention of Patrick Mahomes or T.J. Watt here. No, we're going to try to identify dark-horse candidates—players whose odds are at least a 20-to-1 at DraftKings to win a particular award.

Who doesn't love a longshot?

Most Valuable Player

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 25: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins takes the field prior to a game against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium on December 25, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+2000)

There are two major criteria when it comes to being named the NFL's Most Valuable Player.

The first is that it most assuredly helps to be a quarterback—the last time a non-quarterback was named MVP was Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012.

The second is that quarterback is going to need to post some gaudy numbers and lead his team to the postseason.

We know that Tua Tagovailoa is capable of the former—he started the 2022 season on a tear that included a 469-yard, six touchdown effort in Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens. And we know that the Dolphins are capable of success as a team—Miami made the playoffs last year even with Tagovailoa on the shelf.

Not only did Tagovailoa bulk up in the offseason, but head coach Mike McDaniel said Tagovailoa also learned jiu jitsu in an effort to fall more safely and avoid concussions.

"I've seen a guy that's followed through with his words as well as any young man that I've come across in my career," McDaniel said. "Controlling the controllable is something that I would epitomize his offseason with. You want to talk about going above and beyond -- training, martial arts -- so much so that he knew the training before he knew what it was called. I think he was calling it judo. Jiu jitsu is what he was doing. But that in terms of helping him progress in his career has been phenomenal."

If Tagovailoa can stay healthy, he has the weapons and talent to have a breakout season.

And at 20-to-1, he's a dark-horse MVP candidate who could pay off big.

Other Dark Horse MVP Candidates: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+2000); Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos (+3500)

Offensive Player of the Year

Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

LANDOVER, MD - JANUARY 01: Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) rushes up field attempting to elude Washington Commanders defensive end Montez Sweat (90) during the Cleveland Browns game versus the Washington Commanders on January 01, 2023, at FedEx Field in Landover, MD. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (+2200)

In recent years, there haven't been many more consistently productive running backs in the NFL than Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns. In each of the last four seasons, Chubb has eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards. In all four of those seasons, Chubb scored at least eight rushing touchdowns. And in all five of Chubb's professional seasons, he has averaged at least five yards a carry.

While appearing on Twitter Spaces (via J.R. De Groote of Heavy), Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson said he thinks Chubb could be set for a career year in 2023.

"Nick Chubb is going to get his carries. You are going to see Nick Chubb taking it to the house — from 50 yards, see him run it in from 1 yard," Watson said. We are going to feed two-four. He's going to get the ball for sure. Fans don't have to worry about Nick Chubb being unhappy. Nick Chubb is going to run the ball. We have the best O-line group in the NFL and we want to run behind those guys."

With both Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson no longer on the team, there's an excellent chance Chubb will see a substantial spike in workload this year. Reserve running back Jerome Ford is completely unproven, carrying the ball all of eight times as a rookie.

If that big bump in carries does come this year and Chubb manages the same per-touch production that he has throughout his career, Chubb could easily lead the NFL in rushing.

And as we have seen with players like Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans in 2020 and Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams in 2017, doing that gets you in the conversation for Offensive Player of the Year Honors.

Other Dark Horse Offensive Player of the Year Candidates: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+3000); CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (+4000)

Defensive Player of the Year

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INGLEWOOD, CA - JANUARY 01: Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Joey Bosa (97) looks on during an NFL regular season game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers on January 01, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Joey Bosa, EDGE, Los Angeles Chargers (+4000)

After a miserable 2022 season that saw Los Angeles Chargers edge-rusher Joey Bosa miss 12 games with a groin injury and manage a career-low 2.5 sacks, the 27-year-old told reporters that he's anxious to get back after it and put last season behind him.

"Getting back to the old me or whatever you want to say," said Bosa. "It's been going really well. I've been able to stay really consistent this year, it's going to be good getting out here and getting some football movement and all that stuff being with the guys."

It has been something of a theme with Bosa. With the exception of his rookie year, in even-numbered seasons Bosa misses time and fails to hit 10 sacks. In every odd-numbered season, Bosa has posted at least 50 tackles and hit double digits in sacks.

Bosa has already received a fair number of accolades. All the way back in 2016, Bosa rode 41 tackles and 10.5 sacks to Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. He's been named to four Pro Bowls.

But in addition to suffering through the worst season of his career last year, Bosa also watched younger brother Nick win Defensive Player of the Year.

Now, with Bosa healthy again and a former Defensive Player of the Year playing opposite him in Khalil Mack, it's Joey's turn to post a career year, top 15 sacks and win a Defensive Player of the Year trophy all his own.

Other Dark Horse Defensive Player of the Year Candidates: Matthew Judon, EDGE, New England Patriots (+5000); Jalen Ramsey, CB, Miami Dolphins (+7500)

Offensive Rookie of the Year

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 20: Quentin Johnston #1 of the Los Angeles Chargers poses for a portrait during the NFLPA Rookie Premiere on May 20, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)

It's not hard to identify who the front-runners are for Offensive Rookie of the Year. There were three quarterbacks taken in the top-10 who have a real chance of starting the season opener, and Bijan Robinson was the first running back since Saquon Barkley in 2018 to be drafted inside the top-10.

But there's a wide receiver who was taken 21st overall who could open some eyes this season—even if he will start his first season as at best the third option in the Chargers passing game.

Per Eric Smith of the team's website, the Chargers were glad to be able to draft TCU's Quentin Johnson in the back half of Round 1.

"He's big, strong and fast. That's a good way to start it off as a player," Chargers General Manager Tom Telesco said. "Great work ethic that we love. We know all these players that are drafted, they're all talented. But once they get in this league, it takes a lot of work to get to where you want to go and keep improving. He has some physical characteristics that we think he can add to our offense in a different role. We're trying to give Justin [Herbert], our whole offense and [Offensive Coordinator] Kellen Moore a lot of different styles of players to use in different situations. We think he can fit that."

Johnston's talent is plainly evident. He was productive at TCU last year, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards. And while Johnson will open his first season behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, that veteran duo combined to miss 11 games in 2022.

If Allen or Williams go down again this year, Johnston will step into a much larger role for one of the league's top passing games.

Once that happens, look out.

Other Dark Horse Offensive Rookie of the Year Candidates: Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+3500); Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks (+2500)

Defensive Rookie of the Year

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MANHATTAN, KS - OCTOBER 29: Defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah #91 of the Kansas State Wildcats gets set on defense against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the first half at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium on October 29, 2022 in Manhattan, Kansas. (Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)

For the second time in as many years, the Kansas City Chiefs used their first pick in the 2023 draft on an edge-rusher. This time it was a local product in Kansas State's Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Chiefs general manager Brett Veach told reporters he believes the sky's the limit for the 21-year-old.

"He had a ton of production at Kansas State," Veach said. "He just turned 21, so a majority of this production was coming in a big-time conference at 19 and 20 years old, and I think every year he's been there you can see the growth and development. I still think there's a huge window for him to continue to grow and develop, and we're excited that we get him at this stage of his career and being so young. We've got a lot of years to continue to grow and develop him."

Anudike-Uzomah was certainly productive—over his last two seasons in Manhattan, Anudike-Uzomah averaged over 48 tackles, amassed 25.5 tackles for loss and piled up 19.5 sacks. But that productivity is only part of the reason that Anudike-Uzomah is listed here.

The other part is opportunity. Just as with George Karlaftis a year ago, there's a relatively clear path to early playing time for Anudike-Uzomah. The only person standing between Anudike-Uzomah and the starting lineup is Charles Omenihu, who was a complimentary player with the 49ers in 2022.

Anudike-Uzomah could kind himself starting opposite Karlaftis in relatively short order, and given how much time the Chiefs spend playing from ahead, pinning their ears back and rushing the passer, that could open the door for a very productive first season.

Other Dark Horse Defensive Rookie of the Year Candidates: Deonte Banks, CB, New York Giants (+2000); Joey Porter Jr., CB, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2500)

Coach of the Year

Joe Sargent/Getty Images

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 08: Head coach Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks on during the first half of the game against the Cleveland Browns at Acrisure Stadium on January 08, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers (+3000)

DraftKings has taken down their Coach of the Year odds, and even the ones at Bet MGM are a little wonky. Perhaps oddsmakers are attempting to bake in the politics that are part of the award. It makes making a pick here difficult—this is an article about dark horses and longshots—but while Andy Reid of the Chiefs may somehow be the latter, he's most assuredly not the former.

However, there is a guy who meets both criteria. A long-time coach who has surprisingly never been named Coach of the Year despite never having a losing season. Not one. In 16 years in charge.

Given how loaded the AFC is, not much is being expected of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023. But while Mike Tomlin doesn't speak to the media during OTAs, veteran wide receiver Diontae Johnson told reporters the message Tomlin has relayed to his team this summer.

"(Tomlin) was real big on taking this championship this year," Johnson said. "We brought in a lot of players this year, so we are feeling really good about this season."

Are the Steelers a great team? No. Are they the best team in the AFC North? Also no. But the Steelers are stout defensively and have at least adequate skill-position talent on offense.

If quarterback Kenny Pickett takes a positive step in his second season, the Steelers could be a 10 or even 11-win team. And if Pittsburgh can exceed expectations and make a little noise in the playoffs, maybe Tomlin will finally get the recognition he has deserved for some time.

Other Dark Horse Coach of the Year Candidates: Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts (+2200); Kevin O' Connell, Minnesota Vikings (+3000)

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