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LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - MAY 05: A general view as horses runs by during an race ahead of the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 05, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - MAY 05: A general view as horses runs by during an race ahead of the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 05, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Kentucky Derby 2023 Contenders: Final Vegas Odds and Projections for Top Horses

Julia StumbaughMay 6, 2023

Time to put on your finest hat and mix yourself a mint julep, because the "Greatest Two Minutes in Sports" take place today.

During the 2023 Kentucky Derby, 20 horses will be racing for a $3 million purse, a garland of roses and the oldest and most prestigious title in horse racing.

After the second-biggest long-shot win in Kentucky Derby history took place in 2022, when late addition Rich Strike won at 80-1 odds, viewers know any horse has a shot to win at Churchill Downs today.

Here's everything you need to know heading into the 149th Run for the Roses.

149th Kentucky Derby

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LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - MAY 04: Verifying trains on the track during morning workouts in preparation for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - MAY 04: Verifying trains on the track during morning workouts in preparation for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky

When: Saturday, May 6

Time: 6:57 p.m. ET (coverage begins at noon ET)

TV and Live Stream: NBC, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports App and Peacock

Qualification: Three-year-old thoroughbreds

Prize Money: $3 million purse ($1.86 million payout to the winner)

Latest Vegas Odds

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LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - APRIL 28: Hit Show runs on the track during the morning training for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 28, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - APRIL 28: Hit Show runs on the track during the morning training for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 28, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Hit Show 33-1

Verifying 19-1

Two Phil's 8-1

Confidence Game 20-1

Tapit Trice 6-1

Kingsbarns 12-1

Reincarnate 15-1

Mage 20-1

Disarm 27-1

Jace's Road 39-1

Sun Thunder 37-1

Angel of Empire 6-1

Raise Cain 37-1

Derma Sotogake 8-1

Rocket Can 36-1

Cyclone Mischief 39-1

Mandarin Hero 26-1

King Russell 39-1

*Odds via the official Kentucky Derby website and accurate as of Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

Predictions

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LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - MAY 04: Tapit Trice trains on the track during morning workouts in preparation for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY - MAY 04: Tapit Trice trains on the track during morning workouts in preparation for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

With odds-on favorite Forte being scratched from the Derby on Saturday morning, there is no shortage of intrigue entering the race.

After Rich Strike won the Derby from the 20th post position in a historic upset, viewers will be checking out competition throughout the field.

Tapit Trice, who comes in to Saturday on a four-race win streak, may now be the top contender with Forte out. He does not usually break from the pack out of the gate but instead waits until the last stretch to outrun rivals, per James Scully of TwinSpires.

"If he can get into position by the top of the stretch, Tapit Trice will have every chance to prove best," writes Scully.

Raise Cain, starting from post 16, is an intriguing pick for this year's long shot. He caught eyes with an upset win at Gotham in March, where he pulled far enough ahead in the stretch to win by 7½ lengths.

"The odds don't matter, I'm not going to tell him he's 50-1," trainer Ben Colebrook told Horse Racing Nation. "I'm just hoping he gets to the first turn in good shape, and then after that, you know, if you get through the first turn, you've got a shot."

Verifying, son of Triple Crown winner Justify, threw a rider on May 4 but is reportedly ready to compete after coming up just short of beating Forte in the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this month. Angel of Empire impressed at the Arkansas Derby and is one of six horses to claim a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating.

Of the last 23 Derby winners, 18 posted a Brisnet Speed rating of 100 or more in their final prep race, so it can be helpful to know a horse's rating. (Rich Strike's first 100-plus, however, was in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.)

Check out the complete list of Brisnet Speed ratings here.


Predictions

1. Tapit Trice

2. Verifying

3. Angel of Empire

4. Raise Cain

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