Grading Fantasy Football Landing Spots for Top Rookies After 2023 NFL Draft
Now that the NFL draft has come and gone, it's time for a new draft season: dynasty rookie drafts in fantasy football leagues.
It's a critical time for fantasy managers. For teams that struggled a year ago, this is an opportunity to add a player who can reverse their lagging fortunes. For the teams that were successful in 2022, it's a chance to keep the good times rolling.
Talent always has been and always will be the most important factor in determining fantasy value. But make no mistake: situation matters. All the talent in the world won't help fantasy managers if a player is buried on the depth chart. It's hard to tally fantasy points without the ball.
Now that we know where this year's top rookies will begin their NFL careers, it's much easier to slot the top dynasty rookies. Not only are we going to do that here with the top 15 rookies for one-quarterback, point-per-reception fantasy leagues, but we're also going to grade each of their landing spots.
Many did well in that regard. A few did not.
Nos. 15-11 (Honorable Mention)
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15. Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Spears is undersized (5'10", 200 lbs) and has durability concerns, but he has an every-down skill set and was wildly productive at Tulane. He'll be no more than a handcuff to Derrick Henry in 2023, but after trade rumors circulated regarding Henry prior to the draft, the Titans could view Spears as his successor.
Landing Spot Grade: C+
14. Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Mayer might not be the most talented tight end prospect in the class, but he has great size (6'4", 265 lbs), strength and hands. Perhaps most importantly for fantasy managers, Mayer landed in a great spot after the Raiders traded Darren Waller earlier in the offseason.
Landing Spot Grade: A
13. Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
Some eyebrows went up when the Saints picked the 6'0", 220-pounder early in the third round. The size and speed are there, but the TCU product is a work in progress and staring up at Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams on the depth chart. Drafting Miller means looking to 2024 and beyond.
Landing Spot Grade: C
12. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a capable veteran starter at tight end in Dawson Knox, but Knox doesn't have the speed or ability to stretch the field that Kincaid does. Young tight ends often take a little while to acclimate to the NFL, but there are worse places for a pass-catcher to start their career than with Josh Allen.
Landing Spot Grade: B+
11. C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Stroud may have had the best arm talent in this class in terms of accuracy and touch, but landing with Houston is far from ideal. The Texans receiving corps is among the league's worst, their offensive line isn't especially good, and Stroud struggled at times at Ohio State when facing pressure.
Landing Spot Grade: D
10. Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
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Confession time. Zach Charbonnet was my favorite running back prospect of the class. Maybe not the best—that would be Bijan Robinson. But I thought Charbonnet was a better all-around prospect than Jahmyr Gibbs, and he has the skill set to be an every-down back and fantasy force.
Had he landed with the Cincinnati Bengals or Philadelphia Eagles, Charbonnet would be the No. 2 rookie running back, someone who would have been relevant for fantasy managers from the get-go.
Instead, from a fantasy perspective, disaster struck. The Seattle Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round—you know, the same team that drafted Ken Walker III in the second round last year.
Head coach Pete Carroll talked up Charbonnet in a Monday radio appearance—but acknowledged the carry split between the two is an unknown.
"He's so versatile," Carroll said on Bump and Stacy. "He just will fit in and be a great addition. And really we're going to find out how far he can take it in terms of the receiving part of it. We know he's really good at it, but so is Kenneth, and so those guys will be battling."
Mind you, it's not like Walker was bad as a rookie—he topped 1,000 rushing yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Even if Charbonnet wins the lead role, this has the makings of a committee.
And that's bad news for Charbonnet and Walker.
Grade: D
9. Devon Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Devon Achane is one of the most difficult fantasy prospects to get a read on.
On one hand, there's a lot to like about the undersized Texas A&M product: He was arguably the fastest back in the class and is a nightmare for defenses in the open field. Now that he's with Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins, Kyle Madson of Niners Wire expects Achane to make an impact as a rookie.
"Achane is going to be a problem in Miami," he wrote for Touchdown Wire. "... Achane is extremely quick with home run speed, and he's a legitimate receiving threat in ways the other Dolphins RBs aren't. His floor rose exponentially by going to Miami, as did his ceiling. He's going to be a really good player in that offense and a steal with the No. 84 pick."
However, Achane's 5'9", 185-pound frame is more Nyheim Hines than Nick Chubb, and the backfield is crowded. He's also not the only speedster—Raheem Mostert is one of the fastest backs in the NFL. The Miami offensive line was better in 2022 than it was in 2021, but it's still not great.
Achane will have a role as a change-of-pace and passing-down option, and Mostert is on the wrong side of 30. But barring an injury, Achane is going to be limited to 10-12 touches per game and flex fantasy value, at least in the short term.
Grade: C+
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8. Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
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When the draft got underway in Kansas City, Missouri, the first name called by Roger Goodell was that of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, who will be tasked with becoming the franchise quarterback the Carolina Panthers have sought for so long.
While speaking to reporters, Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer said there's no timetable for when Young will take over the offense.
"We're going to rely on our coaches—Jim Caldwell, Frank Reich, Thomas Brown—to decide when it's right," Fitterer said. "We don't have a timeline. We're not saying, 'Hey, this guy's gonna start the first game or we're not going to play him at all this year.' When the time is right or we felt like he's got enough of a mastery of the offense where he can go out and operate this and be successful, that's when he'll be out there."
I don't believe him even a little. Young was the most NFL-ready quarterback prospect in this class. Barring a disaster, he will be the starter when the regular season opens.
The problem is the supporting cast around Young. Carolina's No. 1 wide receiver (Adam Thielen) is well past his prime. Miles Sanders is a good running back but not a great one. The offensive line is average.
This isn't Alabama, where Young was surrounded by elite talent.
He is going to have struggles early.
Grade: C-
7. Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
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It's hardly a secret that the Baltimore Ravens have had a need at wide receiver for some time. This year, they finally did something about it—perhaps in an effort to appease their $260 million quarterback.
First, the Ravens signed veteran wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year contract. Then Baltimore used its first pick on Boston College wideout Zay Flowers. Dan Schneier of CBS Sports believes Flowers is a great fit.
"[Marquise] Brown looked the best of his career working with Jackson on the underneath concepts, and Flowers can take that to a whole different level with his YAC ability," he wrote. "Although the Ravens also added Odell Beckham Jr. and return Rashod Bateman at wide receiver, both Beckham and Bateman have extensive injury histories. Beckham's history of injuries is well documented and Bateman missed most of the 2022 season plus a slew of games at the collegiate level. There's a real opportunity for Flowers to earn a solid target share as a rookie."
That target share is the biggest concern for fantasy managers. In three of the past four seasons, the Ravens have ranked in the bottom five in the NFL in pass attempts. Even if they throw more in 2023, the Ravens aren't going to become the Kansas City Chiefs. There's also Beckham and tight end Mark Andrews.
Flowers has dynasty upside, to be sure. But be doesn't have the fantasy ceiling of this year's other top wideout prospects.
Landing Spot Grade: B-
6. Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
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The Los Angeles Chargers were one of the teams that got in on the wide receiver run in the second half of the first round, selecting TCU's Quentin Johnston at No. 21.
Johnston joins a wide receiver room that already includes Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore told reporters, that trio of wideouts will be great for Justin Herbert.
"To have Q join that receiver room with all the talent that's in there in those guys and the experience, I think it's going to be awesome for him because he's going to learn so much from those guys," he said. "It's going to allow us to put these guys in different roles and different positions to allow them to be successful.
"No one is ever going to complain about having a receiver room like this room, where you have all of this talent. I think we're really, really excited."
In many respects, Johnston is in a similar situation to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's. On one hand, the 6'4", 215-pounder should benefit considerably from the defensive attention Allen and Williams draw. The Chargers were third in passing yards and second in pass attempts in 2022.
But in addition to Allen and Williams, Johnston will also have to compete for targets with running back Austin Ekeler, who led the team with 127 last year.
Allen, 31, is not getting any younger. And this could be Ekeler's last season with the team. So, where Johnston's dynasty fantasy prospects are concerned, the word of the day is patience.
Landing Spot Grade: B+
5. Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
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Anthony Richardson is arguably the most interesting fantasy prospect in the class. He has the size, speed, scrambling ability and arm strength to be Lamar Jackson-meets-Josh Allen. But he also made just 14 starts in college and is far from a finished product passer.
That made Richardson's landing spot all the more important. In the opinion of Tommy Garrett of Pro Football Network, he couldn't have done much better than Shane Steichen and the Indianapolis Colts.
"One of the reasons we love the landing spot so much is the talent on the team," Garrett wrote. "Indianapolis, despite the record, is not a bad football team. The offensive line is solid, and then we look at the skill players around Richardson.
"He can lean on the rushing game with Jonathan Taylor, and at any moment, the Colts can call an RPO. I have no idea how a defense is going to take that away outside of stacking everyone and the dude from Row 65 in the nosebleeds.
"With the receivers, it's nothing but massive targets in Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods, and Mo Alie-Cox, all of whom are 6'3" and above."
In superflex leagues, a compelling argument can be made for Richardson as the No. 1 rookie pick—his rushing upside offers the sort of fantasy floor managers covet. If Steichen can do anywhere near what he did with Jalen Hurts, Richardson could be fantasy's No. 1 quarterback in a year or two.
Landing Spot Grade: B
4. Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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There's no debate that Justin Jefferson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. But after Adam Thielen departed, the Minnesota Vikings needed to add a running mate for Jefferson.
Minnesota did that in the first round, selecting USC's Jordan Addison at No. 23. While speaking to reporters, head coach Kevin O'Connell said that it was a perfect storm of sorts.
"A lot of people always talk about the best-player-available thing [versus need]," O'Connell said. "It was one of those scenarios where the way the board kind of fell for us, it allowed it to kind of check both boxes. It was a need for us, obviously, after the departure of a great player like Adam Thielen, so we wanted to make sure that if a true impact player at that position was available at our pick, that we were prepared for it."
Addison might not be the No. 1 rookie receiver from a dynasty perspective, but it's not hard to argue that he's the leading candidate to pace all rookie receivers in fantasy points. The Vikings were sixth in the NFL in passing yards per game and third in pass attempts in 2022. Thielen's departure freed up 107 targets.
Addison is a good bet to receive a big chunk of those targets—and provided he plays the way he did at USC, he should be fantasy-relevant out of the gate.
Landing Spot Grade: A-
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
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There was quite a bit of dissension regarding the best wide receiver prospect in the class. But when the big day rolled around, the Seattle Seahawks made Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba the first player at the position drafted even though he played just three games in 2022.
After being drafted, Smith-Njigba told reporters he intends to make sure the Seahawks don't regret that decision.
"I can improve on my whole skillset," Smith-Njigba said. "I know I'm not even close to where I want to be in the near future. I'm sure the coaches will have some points for me to work on. For me to be in that room and steal some stuff from DK [Metcalf] and all those guys, I'm looking forward to it."
The issue for Smith-Njigba from a short-term perspective isn't hard to spot: He just landed on a team with Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Of the 553 targets for Seattle last year, 46.7 percent went to one of them. Seattle also ranked 15th in pass attempts.
Target volume is a question.
However, Smith-Njigba is a fantastic route-runner who piled up 95 catches for 1,606 yards two years ago. Facing single coverage in the slot, Smith-Njigba is going to be open—a lot.
Add in that Lockett is 30 years old, and while it may take a little while, Smith-Njigba is going to have a prominent role.
The only question is when.
Landing Spot Grade: B-
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
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Bijan Robinson's selection at No. 8 wasn't surprising. But when the Detroit Lions picked Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs four spots later, that was a different story.
Mind you, the Lions could have taken Robinson at No. 6. But as general manager Brad Holmes told reporters, Detroit got who it wanted.
"I just think that they're different flavors, but they were both really high-impact players," Holmes said. "But there was just something about Gibbs, and again, something about Gibbs for us. It's not about what Bijan would be for us. It's about what would Gibbs be for us. So, that's why we had him in such high regard."
That's right. The Lions preferred Gibbs.
With Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift having shared the load last year, the Lions were 11th in the league in rushing yards. The offensive line is one of the NFL's best. And while Detroit also signed David Montgomery in free agency, Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports expects Gibbs to lead the backfield in touches.
"Yes, the Lions signed David Montgomery in free agency," he wrote. "Gibbs couldn't be any more of a different back. Montgomery has always won laterally with insane jump cuts and low-center-of-gravity contact balance. Gibbs is a sleek rocket ship ready for liftoff every time he touches the football. Right around 5-foot-9, 199 pounds with serious giddy-up 4.36 speed. He accelerates like a Tesla and has soft hands as an underneath receiver. Detroit did not pick him at No. 12 overall—and then ferociously celebrate—to barely utilize him as a rookie."
The fantasy community appears to agree. Gibbs is eighth in dynasty rankings among running backs.
Landing Spot Grade: B+
1. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
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Fantasy pundits were extolling the virtues of Bijan Robinson long before the Atlanta Falcons made him the No. 8 pick in the draft. In the aggregate PPR rankings at Fantasy Pros, Robinson is fifth among running backs without ever having played a snap. In dynasty formats, he's third overall. In one-quarterback leagues, Robinson will be the first pick in approximately 137 percent of rookie drafts.
As Dan Comer of The Ringer noted, not only is Robinson immensely talented, but his landing spot also couldn't have been much better from a fantasy perspective.
"Robinson is the best running back prospect at the position since Saquon Barkley, and he's landed in the perfect spot for fantasy production," he wrote. "In 2022, the Falcons led the NFL in rush rate (51.3 percent) and ranked among the league's top five teams in rushing first downs (152) and yards per attempt (4.9). Even when Atlanta is down multiple scores in the second half, Arthur Smith stays committed to the run. It's fair to question whether that's a reliable winning formula, but it bodes well for his running backs' counting stats."
Last year, the Falcons ranked third in the league in rushing yards and ran the ball more than any team in the league.
Negative game scripts are a concern, but as Comer said, losing hasn't stopped Smith from running the ball in the past. And the Falcons didn't use a top-10 pick on Robinson so he can share carries with Tyler Allgeier.
Landing Spot Grade: A
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter on @IDPSharks.
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