The 6 Riskiest Big-Money 2023 NHL Free Agents
The 2023 NHL free-agent class is loaded with big names, but it will draw plenty of "If this were 2013, it'd be an all-time class" comments before we're even out of the month of June.
When July 1 hits, though, the tantalizing names and their résumés will get desperate GMs thinking that maybe, just maybe, they can still get the most out of some aging superstars. It's the kind of gambit that more often than not costs a GM their job down the road, and we'd like to help them out a little bit.
We're going to take a look at six notable players who might make eyes pop when a team signs them, but the term and money could be risky. The names will bring back great memories of past accomplishments, but they'll come with the "buyer beware" tag this summer.
Think of others who fit this bill? Let us know in the comments.
John Klingberg
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John Klingberg was an unrestricted free agent for the first time last summer after he spent eight seasons with the Dallas Stars.
While his offensive game was outstanding, his defensive game was a bit...lacking. No one made a long-term offer for Klingberg, which led to him signing a one-year deal with Anaheim.
Fortunately for the 30-year-old Klingberg, the Ducks were so porous on defense all season that it wouldn't have mattered whether Klingberg was good or bad on the back end. The Minnesota Wild added him at the trade deadline, and he's racked up seven points in 13 games and held his own defensively.
Everything's good now, right? Well...let's not get too excited.
Looking back on his last two seasons in Dallas, the defensive numbers got worse as the team got better. Bad teams like Anaheim also drag everyone's numbers down, but Klingberg's haven't improved all that much with the Wild either. The points are always welcome, but opponents are able to have the greater run of play with shot attempts and quality scoring chances when he's on the ice at 5-on-5.
A strong postseason run by the Wild with Klingberg piling up points and perhaps even running their power play effectively could land him the long-term deal he didn't get last summer. But locking him in for too long and for too much money could put an acquiring team behind the 8-ball against the cap all too quickly.
Patrick Kane
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Patrick Kane is one of the NHL's all-time greatest players. He's been a premier scorer in the league since he debuted in 2007 and has won the Stanley Cup three times and the Hart Memorial and Art Ross Trophies once each.
The kind of player he is now, however, doesn't exactly match those superlatives.
In February, ESPN's Emily Kaplan reported the Rangers were so concerned about a hip issue Kane was playing through that it initially them from trading for him. That would help explain why he hasn't looked like the incredible playmaker and scorer we've seen in more recent years.
Kane averaged 1.18 points per game across 78 outings last season, but his 0.79 points per game this season would be the lowest of his career. Given Kane's defensive deficiencies, any team signing Kane would be doing so to have him fuel up their offense, and his value may simply not be there if he's no longer an elite producer of points.
Given Kane's questionable health status as well as his age, a short-term commitment seems not only prudent but logical as well. He won't command the $10.5 million average salary he's currently on, but he's not going to sign for a pittance either. A one- or two-year deal would sit well, although Kane would likely want more term.
Sean Monahan
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Among the top unrestricted free agents this summer, Sean Monahan is among the youngest at 28 years old. He also heads into the summer with some notable red flags.
Monahan has battled injuries the past two seasons with Calgary and Montréal, missing 17 games last season and playing just 25 this season. He's a three-time 30-goal scorer but he last hit that plateau in 2018-2019, when he scored 34 with Calgary. Since 2021 he's battled issues with his hip, and groin surgery knocked him out for the rest of the season this year. It's not the kind of thing any player wants to have happen ever in their career, least of all in a contract season.
When healthy, Monahan is a solid No. 2 center. He can score goals and handles himself well all over the ice. On a team that's closer to competing for a Cup rather than a rebuilding one, he could be a really savvy addition to deepen a roster. But...that whole "when healthy" part is a major issue. Hip and groin issues for hockey players are particularly perilous because they affect skating, speed and virtually everything a player has to do on the ice.
It's be hard to imagine a team throwing a long-term, big-money offer at Monahan this summer, but stranger things have happened in free agency. He was playing well for the Canadiens before he went out of action, so it might be good for both him and the Habs to run it back on a one-year deal. Even a two-year deal sadly might be too much of a concern.
Matt Dumba
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There was no hotter player in mock trades the past couple of years than Wild defenseman Matt Dumba. He's been one of the Wild's top defensemen, and being a right-handed shooter makes him extra attractive for teams. He's strong, he plays physical as well as smart and he's 28 years old. He's the ideal candidate for a big-money, long-term contract.
But a couple things may be reasons for pause.
His rates for goals, assists, hits and shots are down this year, while his penalty minutes and shot blocks are up. In the advanced stats, Minnesota's expected goal share hasn't been this low since with Dumba on the ice since 2015-2016, although the shot-attempt numbers are essentially the same.
The lower numbers this season could be a warning sign, or they could be because he's had more ice time this season than he's had since 2017-2018. Dumba hasn't been an offensive force since that '17-'18 season, when he had 50 points. He's usually been good for between 20 to 30 points a year but has 14 this season.
A team signing him will hope that this season is just a mild hiccup in what's already been a very solid career. A thin free-agent class will assuredly mean Dumba can cash in big, but it doesn't come without some risk. He should give his new team an upgrade on the back end, but they'll be signing him hoping this season was more of a mild aberration.
Frederik Andersen
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Since Frederik Andersen entered the NHL in the 2013-2014 season, he's been one of the top goalies in the league. With Anaheim, Toronto and Carolina he's posted a .915 save percentage. That mark ties him for 17th among goalies with 100 or more games played since the start of Andersen's NHL career, and you may know some of the six players he's tied with pretty well: Marc-Andre Fleury, Henrik Lundqvist, Sergei Bobrovsky, Pekka Rinne, Cory Schneider and Jake Oettinger.
While Andersen has been very good, he's also missed a lot of time with injury dating back to his time with the Ducks. At 32 years old, he's still in fairly prime years for a goaltender, but the games lost to injury are hard to ignore. Worse yet, they've occurred late in seasons, which threw his availability in the postseason up in the air.
Teams can never have enough goaltending, and Andersen will earn long looks for his consistency as a very good goalie. But given those durability concerns, teams will have to either already have a strong goalie on staff or add a complementary netminder to join Andersen.
Teams would love to make a long-term commitment to him based on his play, and a goalie with his stats should get paid well. But when teams go into signing him, they know they have to have at least a couple of other options just in case things go sideways health-wise for Andersen again.
Vladimir Tarasenko
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There are so few dynamic goal scorers who make it to free agency these days, particularly those with the kind of prolific history Vladimir Tarasenko has.
By now, his track record should be well known. He's scored 270 goals in 11 seasons, and he's scored 30 or more in a campaign six times, including a 40-goal year in 2015-2016. He's got the kind of shot that makes goalies quake in their pads, and just a year ago he had a career-year with 82 points alongside 34 goals.
But health concerns are a big issue for Tarasenko, who is also 31 years old. He fought through a brutal shoulder injury a few years ago that caused a rift with the St. Louis Blues and led to a trade demand. Although he's long past the shoulder issues and stayed with the Blues until February of this year, things haven't improved with the Rangers after a slow start with the Blues.
Scorers can continue to pump in goals beyond their 30s, but that Tarasenko has scored 18 this year with New York and St. Louis combined is a bit of a concern. While Tarasenko's goal scoring is slightly better with New York, his overall points rate is lower than it was in St. Louis.
Tarasenko should be able to land a multiyear contract in the summer and be paid pretty well for it. The only questions are what the term will be and how much, if at all, his numbers this season depress the salary.
It would be brave of any GM to go long-term with him. His talents and skills are tantalizing, and maybe his numbers are depressed from playing with a bad team and then being traded. Or maybe it's all the warning needed to approach him cautiously.
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