2023 NBA Playoffs: 1 Thing Holding Back Every Western Conference Team
More so than any other season in recent memory, the Western Conference is up for grabs. There is no way to feel comfortable picking a team to represent that side of the NBA this year.
Despite the Denver Nuggets' sitting on top of the standings, there have been doubts about their viability to get to the Finals. Every team has its own Achilles' heel that will inevitably show up during the postseason.
One obvious caveat that will not be brought up in these slides is health.
Assuming teams are relatively healthy, these are the issues that might stop them from coming out of the West. If a core player goes down, it is safe to assume that would become the team's biggest concern.
Denver Nuggets: Pick-and-Roll Defense
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There might not have ever been a No. 1 seed doubted as much as the Denver Nuggets. Case in point: The fourth-place Phoenix Suns have the best odds to come out of the West, according to FanDuel, at +200. Golden State is at +330 compared to Denver at +350.
One reason to be concerned about the Nuggets in the playoffs is their defense. Specifically, their pick-and-roll defense will be problematic. Teams will scheme to put Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray in ball-screen actions, forcing them to defend.
According to Synergy Sports Technology, the Nuggets' pick-and-roll defense including passes ranks 19th in the NBA. They gave up 1.016 points per possession on 2,981 possessions. As opponents prepare for the Nuggets, they will look to put them in pick-and-roll situations.
Not every team can take advantage of that deficiency, but the ones that can will certainly give the Nuggets a difficult time. It will be imperative for Michael Malone and his staff to come up with a defensive game plan that will keep Jokić and Murray out of bad matchups in those series.
How well the Nuggets defend the pick-and-roll will be a deciding factor in how far they go in the playoffs.
Memphis Grizzlies: Half-Court Offense
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It has been a shaky end of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies with injuries and suspensions. But Memphis finished second in the West.
Still, it's not clear when Steven Adams will return, if at all. Meanwhile, Brandon Clarke is out for the year with a torn Achilles.
So, the biggest point of concern for the Grizzlies is half-court offense.
It is surprising that a team with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane is not a good half-court team. According to Synergy Sports Technology, the Grizzlies rank 23rd in points per possession. Part of their struggles in the half court is poor three-point shooting. Memphis' 35.1 percent mark ranks 23rd.
To address the issue, the Grizzlies landed Luke Kennard at the trade deadline. Since the All-Star break, their percentage has improved, but 36.3 from deep still might not be enough.
The game slows down in the playoffs, and playing out of the half court becomes extremely important. The Grizzlies will need to figure out how to grind out possessions to get out of the West.
Sacramento Kings: Consecutive Stops
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First, let's take a second to celebrate the Sacramento Kings' breaking their long playoff drought. Hooray!
OK. The second is over.
Now, let's get to the big issue for the Kings in the playoffs. It is known that they are bad defensively; but what's even worse is they can't get consecutive stops.
Sacramento has the worst defensive rating of any team in the playoffs. It is 24th—just ahead of mostly the tankers.
Making consecutive stops can decide a contest. A great example is Sacramento's game against the Milwaukee Bucks on March 13. It was a two-point contest with less than four minutes left, and the Bucks scored on six straight possessions to secure a victo.
Playing successful defense stops teams from going on big runs, and the Kings might struggle to do that.
The Sacramento offense is explosive and tough to stop, and that is how the Kings climbed to third in the West. But, come playoff time, their defense will have to assist the offense by getting consecutive stops. Otherwise, Sacramento will be susceptible to letting games slip from its control.
Phoenix Suns: Top-Heavy Roster
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The Phoenix Suns made the biggest splash at the trade deadline by acquiring Kevin Durant. To no one's surprise, it came at a cost.
That cost? Two major pieces of the rotation. And it turned the Suns into a top-heavy team.
Finding Phoenix's postseason Achilles' heel might be as simple as asking: Who will join the core when it matters most? Durant, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul are the obvious starters and crunch-time players. Who is the fifth?
Monty Williams has to cobble together a rotation with the pieces who are left over: Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, T.J. Warren, Terrence Ross and Cameron Payne.
There is an open competition for that spot.
It will come down to who can keep the court spread with their shooting and not be a defensive liability. So far, Okogie has started alongside the core four. The Suns have played only eight games with this starting lineup, though, and that might not have been enough to develop the needed chemistry.
If the Suns fail to come out of the West (they are favored by FanDuel), it will be because they could not adequately fill the fifth spot in their key lineups.
L.A. Clippers: Rotation
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No team has cared less about the regular season this year—and over the past few years—than the Los Angeles Clippers. That has come at a cost to the team and, most importantly, the players.
The Clippers have run through 30 starting lineups this season.
So many changes make it difficult for players to know their roles and create chemistry. There were a variety of reasons for the shifts, from load management to injuries to coach's decisions.
Every time it looked like the Clippers were settling into a groove, something would change. The most recent is Paul George's injury, which forced a new rotation.
But it appears Tyronn Lue has found a rotation heading into the playoffs, though that will change if George returns.
There have been too many games this season when it felt like the Clippers were just five people playing pickup basketball. So much movement in the rotation puts them in a difficult position for the playoffs, wherein chemistry is crucial to success.
Golden State Warriors: Turnovers
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The Golden State Warriors have been just awful on the road this season, but that may not be their Achilles' heel.
The problem for the Warriors is turnovers. They rank 30th in the NBA, just behind the 22-60 Houston Rockets. Too many turnovers has not been an issue in the past for the Warriors, as this marks the highest average of the Steve Kerr era. Opponents are scoring 19.4 points per game off those giveaways as well.
The Golden State defense is not good enough to withstand so many wasted possessions. A lot of the turnovers are of the sloppy kind, such as behind-the-back passes that go astray or botched opportunities when going for a home run play.
The turnovers are part of the road woes. At home, the Warriors average 15.8 turnovers per game, while they average 16.8 on the road. Those are not good numbers, but one fewer turnover makes a big difference.
In the playoffs, each possession takes on massive importance, and throwing them away is a recipe for elimination.
L.A. Lakers: Consistent Shooting
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Before the trade deadline, the Los Angeles Lakers were a poor shooting team. They were 26th in three-point shooting. To their credit, they made moves to help in that department, bringing in D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley, but shooting is still what will hold the Lakers back.
Adding reputable shooters was a good start, but they need those shooters to hit shots. Since the trade deadline, the Lakers have improved as a three-point shooting team, ranking 16th. That is just below league average.
Russell can catch fire from deep. He has outings when he hits five or six threes. But there are also nights when he goes 3-of-11 from beyond the arc, as he did in an embarrassing loss to the Houston Rockets.
Beasley is just as inconsistent. He had a 6-of-14 three-point showing against the Chicago Bulls. He followed that with a 6-of-18 performance over the next four games. That simply will not get it done. In fact, he's shooting worse from three as a Laker than he did with the Jazz.
The Lakers need their shooters to hit shots, creating space for Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
If they are in a lull in the playoffs, it could spell doom for Los Angeles.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Consistency
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It has been difficult for the Minnesota Timberwolves to find consistency.
Minnesota struggled from the start while working Rudy Gobert into the core of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and, prior to trading him, D'Angelo Russell. Then KAT got injured, the Wolves brought in Mike Conley, and they slowly found a rhythm.
Now Towns is back, and the Wolves are in the playoffs for the second year in a row.
However, all season long the Wolves have been taking two steps back after taking a step forward. Almost every winning streak beyond two games was followed with a losing streak. Most recently, they had a successful four-game stretch March 20-27—and chased it with a three-game losing streak.
The Wolves have struggled all year long with players in and out of the lineup because of injuries, trades and rotation issues. That has led to inconsistencies on the court, which could come back to haunt them this playoff season.
And punches might further hold the Wolves back, as Gobert was suspended for hitting Kyle Anderson, and Jaden McDaniels broke his hand when he punched a wall.
New Orleans Pelicans: Rim Protection
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The New Orleans Pelicans have done an admirable job climbing back into the playoff picture after all the injuries they suffered this year. But now, the biggest worry for the Pelicans is their lack of rim protection.
New Orleans is 24th in blocks per game, averaging just 4.1. Not one Pelican averages close to one blocked shot.
Not being a shot-blocking team is not a death knell for a playoff team. The Warriors don't block a ton of shots, but they also don't give up the highest field-goal percentage at the rim.
The problem: New Orleans has given up a 68.5 field-goal percentage on 28.0 attempts per game at the rim, which ranks last in the NBA.
Having a deterrent down low is important come playoff time, and that might be what grounds the Pelicans in the playoffs this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Defensive Rebounding
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best stories of this season for making the play-in tournament. They are super exciting, spearheaded by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams.
The biggest concern is their lack of defensive rebounding.
The Thunder rank 21st in defensive rebounding and are even worse when it comes to defensive rebounding percentage, as they rank 28th. Poor defensive rebounding leads to more opportunities for opponents.
The Thunder give up the most second-chance points in the NBA, allowing 15.5 per game. In their recent loss to the Warriors, they gave up 19 offensive rebounds and 30 second-chance points. That simply is not good enough.
Not being able to end a good defensive possession with a rebound could silence the Thunder in the postseason.
