NBA Playoff Picture 2023: Warriors, Suns, Clippers Headed to Photo Finish; Lakers In?

In less than two weeks, the 2022-23 NBA season will come to a close.

There still is very little cemented in either conference.

The West, in particular, is way too bunched up to call. One rough stretch could totally change a team's fortunes; just ask the Dallas Mavericks.

Two races in the West have our full attention: the one for the No. 4 seed and the one for the play-in tournament. After laying out the latest standings in both conferences, we'll spotlight those races and predict how they'll play out.

Updated Standings

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 13: De'Aaron Fox #5 of the Sacramento Kings dribbles around a screen set by Domantas Sabonis #10 on Jrue Holiday #21 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game at Golden 1 Center on March 13, 2023 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Eastern Conference

1. y-Milwaukee Bucks: 54-21

2. x-Boston Celtics: 52-24

3. x-Philadelphia 76ers: 49-26

4. x-Cleveland Cavaliers: 48-29

5. New York Knicks: 43-33

6. Brooklyn Nets: 40-35

7. Miami Heat: 40-36

8. Atlanta Hawks: 38-38

9. Toronto Raptors: 38-38

10. Chicago Bulls: 36-39

Washington Wizards: 34-42

Indiana Pacers: 33-43

Orlando Magic: 32-44

e-Charlotte Hornets: 26-51

e-Detroit Pistons: 16-59

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Western Conference

1. y-Denver Nuggets: 51-24

2. y-Memphis Grizzlies: 48-27

3. Sacramento Kings: 45-30

4. Phoenix Suns: 40-35

5. Los Angeles Clippers: 40-36

6. Golden State Warriors: 40-37

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: 39-37

8. New Orleans Pelicans: 38-38

9. Los Angeles Lakers: 37-38

10. Oklahoma City Thunder: 37-39

Dallas Mavericks: 37-39

Utah Jazz: 35-40

Portland Trail Blazers: 32-43

e-San Antonio Spurs: 19-56

e-Houston Rockets: 18-58

*y-clinched division

x-clinched playoff berth

e-eliminated

The Fight for Fourth in the West

Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

CHICAGO, IL - MARCH 03: Phoenix Suns Forward Kevin Durant (35) and Phoenix Suns Guard Devin Booker (1) looks on during a NBA game between the Phoenix Suns and the Chicago Bulls on March 3, 2023 at the United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Only a single game separates the fourth-seeded Phoenix Suns from the sixth-seeded Golden State Warriors. The fifth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers land right in the middle, a half-game away from either side.

This race feels too close to call, but it might not be.

With Kevin Durant expected back on Wednesday night, the Suns should have everything they need to retain this spot. They have the best one-two punch of any of these three teams with Durant and Devin Booker. Add in Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul, and they probably have the top quartet, too.

As for the five spot, give Golden State the edge. The Warriors have the easier remaining schedule, and the Clippers will really miss Paul George, whose sprained knee could sideline him through the first round.

Will Lakers Make the Play-In Tournament?

AP Photo/LM Otero

Los Angeles Lakers guard Malik Beasley (5) and forward Anthony Davis (3) get a congrats from teammate forward LeBron James (6) during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game against the Dallas Mavericks in Dallas, Sunday, Feb. 26, 2023. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Assuming no Western Conference team falls out of the top six, there are essentially five teams fighting for four spots. Both the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers appear to have turned their attention to the future at this point.

So, which of these five teams will be left out?

The surging Timberwolves feel safe. They've had a good thing going of late, and the return of Karl-Anthony Towns only strengthened that. The Pelicans should get in, too. They have a tough closing stretch, but they've played some good basketball on both ends lately (Tuesday's collapse at Golden State notwithstanding).

Our crystal ball sees the Lakers and Mavericks fending off the Thunder for the final two spots. If L.A. avoids any more injury issues with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, it has enough to enjoy a successful closing stretch. And while Dallas hasn't exactly earned a lot of optimism down the stretch, it still seems smart to trust an offense featuring Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. Oklahoma City's inexperience could prove costly, though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's ankle sprain is the bigger obstacle.