NCAA Women's Tournament 2023: Odds, Bracket Ahead of Final Four
The South Carolina Gamecocks have been the dominant program in women's college basketball all season long.
Dawn Staley's side enters the Final Four in Dallas with a 34-0 record and two wins away from winning back-to-back championships.
South Carolina's dominance was enforced across the first four rounds of the NCAA women's basketball tournament, as it won every game by double digits.
The Gamecocks are projected to beat the Iowa Hawkeyes by the same margin on Friday despite the matchup against one of the best individuals to ever play the sport.
Caitlin Clark scored 120 points in the last four games, and she is coming off a 40-point triple-double in the Elite Eight.
South Carolina must slow down Clark to reach Sunday's national championship, while Iowa needs to ride its star for four quarters.
The opening Final Four clash between the LSU Tigers and Virginia Tech Hokies possesses two of the sport's best paint players in Angel Reese and Elizabeth Kitley.
Reese and Kitley are expected to battle in a close game inside American Airlines Arena to set the stage for what could be one of the most memorable nights of college basketball in quite some time.
Iowa vs. South Carolina
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Spread: South Carolina -11.5
Over/Under: 149.5
Money Line: South Carolina (-675; bet $675 to win $100); Iowa (+500; bet $100 to win $500)
The 11.5-point spread in favor of South Carolina appears to be right where it needs to be based on the team's season-long dominance.
The Gamecocks have not slipped up yet this season, and their defense has been phenomenal.
South Carolina ranks fourth in Division I in points allowed per game at 51.1, and it held its first three NCAA tournament opponents under 50 points.
The 75-point concession to the Maryland Terrapins in the Elite Eight marked the first time in 13 games South Carolina allowed over 70 points.
South Carolina's defense is more than capable of slowing down Clark and Iowa's top-ranked scoring offense that averages 87.5 points per contest.
Iowa will try to outpace South Carolina through Clark's scoring and passing abilities. Clark averages 8.6 assists per game and produced 44 handouts in the last four games.
If Iowa is slowed for even a few minutes, the under will be in terrific shape. Both teams need to have near-perfect offensive performances for the total to reach over 149.5 points.
If South Carolina dictates the pace, it can cover the spread and force the game under. The Gamecocks have made their name off strong defense, and even if Clark scores 30 points, they can shut down the rest of Iowa's starters.
Iowa can draw some confidence that South Carolina's three 70-point concessions came against three of the top teams in women's college basketball, but if it can't get to 70, it will have a tough time pulling out a result against the seventh-best scoring offense in the sport.
LSU vs. Virginia Tech
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Spread: LSU -2
Over/Under: 133
Money Line: LSU (-135); Virginia Tech (+115)
The Final Four's opening battle between LSU and Virginia Tech is projected to be the closer contest of the two games.
The matchup is level on paper because of the outputs from Reese and Kitley around the rim.
Reese ranks in the top five in points and rebounds per game, while Kitley is 36th in points per game and 15th in rebounds per contest.
The two players combined for seven double-doubles in the first two weekends of the NCAA tournament, and that could mean the fight for every rebound could be an absolute battle.
If Reese or Kitley are shut down, their supporting cast can pick up the scoring pace. There will be seven players on the floor who average over 10 points per game, four from Virginia Tech and three from LSU.
The two sides are also level in three-point shooting, which could be vital if the paint is clogged up by Reese and Kitley. LSU shoots 35.9 percent from deep, and the Hokies are 34.9 percent from beyond the arc.
All of the numbers are close, so the contest may come down to an intangible, like coaching, where the edge goes to LSU's Kim Mulkey, who won three NCAA tournaments with the Baylor Bears.
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