NCAA Tournament 2023: Power Ranking the Men's Final Four Teams
Only four teams remain in the quest to crown the 2023 men's college basketball national champion: Connecticut, Florida Atlantic, Miami and San Diego State.
Back in mid-January, I wrote about the possibility of an "All First-Timers" Final Four, and we did end up getting three teams who had never been here before. Granted, if it did happen, I was expecting some combination of Alabama, Tennessee, Xavier, TCU, Creighton and Saint Mary's. But I did at least mention each of Florida Atlantic, Miami and San Diego State.
How do those first-timers stack up against one another, though?
And can any of them hold a candle to Connecticut?
Before the dance began, we had Connecticut at No. 6, San Diego State at No. 18, Florida Atlantic at No. 24 and Miami at No. 30 in our 68-team power rankings. And in defense of that disrespectful Hurricanes ranking, Norchad Omier's ankle injury looked bad, and this profiled as one of those "great offense, poor defense" teams that never makes the Sweet 16.
Based on a combination of how they looked during the regular season, how they look right now and, to some extent, how we think the standings would shake out if these Final Four teams played a round-robin tournament to determine a champion, we've ranked them from bottom to top.
Seeding has been irrelevant to a historical degree in this dance, but if we had to re-seed the field today, what would it look like?
4. San Diego State Aztecs
1 of 4
The Road Behind: We're not going to say San Diego State is only here because of luck, because this is an excellent team deserving of this spotlight. But, goodness gracious, did the Aztecs ever get lucky in Louisville. Back-to-back opponents (Alabama and Creighton) who normally make it rain from three-point range each shooting below 12 percent from distance? And then benefitting from that controversial foul call at the end of the Elite Eight game? Must be nice.
The Road Ahead: From an adjusted efficiency standpoint, Florida Atlantic's offense is on par with those of Alabama and Creighton, as well as the Utah State offense that the Aztecs twice shut down in the final five weeks of the regular season. But if they're able to knock off the Owls, the winner of the Connecticut-Miami game will be the best offense the Aztecs have faced all season. This is a great defense, but it will really be put to the test in Houston.
Reason to Buy: Even before that ridiculous run in Louisville, this SDSU defense was holding opponents below 29 percent three-point shooting for the season. This team has a knack for forcing foes to settle for deep and/or contested three-pointers, which could make for some ugly, low-scoring games at NRG Stadium. The 2016 national championship between Villanova and North Carolina tried to kill the narrative about poor shooting in Houston, but there have been many other brick-laying tournament games there, most notably the 2011 Final Four. Maybe that luck from Louisville follows the Aztecs to Houston.
Reason to Sell: This offense is just not good. In seven games played since the start of the Mountain West tournament, SDSU has scored 456 points in 463 possessions. Regular-season leading scorer Matt Bradley hasn't been able to buy a bucket in the dance, and no one else on the team averages even 10 points per game (for the season). So, yes, they've held tournament opponents to 57.3 points per game, but three of those four games came down to the wire anyway.
Will Win It All If...: We're headed for a repeat of 2011. No, we don't mean a repeat of Connecticut winning it all. But if we're headed for a repeat of the scores of 2011 UConn's final two games in Houston—56-55; 53-41—that would bode quite well for San Diego State, as the Aztecs are a perfect 22-0 when holding opponents to 65 points or fewer.
3. Miami Hurricanes
2 of 4
The Road Behind: In Miami's rearview mirror is a wasteland of quality opponents buried in an avalanche of points. The Hurricanes ended the first game against Drake on a 16-1 run, put together a 16-2 run midway through the second halves against Indiana and Houston and blitzed Texas with a 17-5 run late in their Elite Eight win. They've shown a repeatable ability to either erase a deficit in a hurry or turn a close contest into a blowout in the blink of an eye.
The Road Ahead: In the eyes of many, the Final Four pairing between Miami and Connecticut is the de facto national championship game, with the winner likely to be a sizable favorite in the championship against SDSU/FAU. But while the Hurricanes are a clear underdog against the Huskies, what else is new? They were slightly supposed to lose to Indiana and definitely supposed to lose to both Houston and Texas. They've toppled more than their fair share of well-rounded opponents already in this dance. What's two more?
Reason to Buy: For all the talk of the possibly over-inflated basketball being the reason teams are struggling to score, Miami sure hasn't seemed to mind. In beating Indiana, Houston and Texas, the Hurricanes shot 52.5 percent from the field, 39.3 percent from distance and 81.3 percent from the free-throw line. This offense has been doggone good all season long, but they've found a new gear since the final few minutes of that opener against Drake.
Reason to Sell: While San Diego State's offense is just not good, Miami's defense is even worse. The Hurricanes have been scoring at will over the past three games, but Houston and Texas scored a combined 156 points in 142 possessions against them. Miami shot 64 percent in the first half against the Longhorns and still trailed by eight at the intermission. If the 'Canes stop scoring 85 points per game at any point, they might be in some major trouble.
Will Win It All If...: The starting five continues to shine. Isaiah Wong, Nijel Pack, Norchad Omier, Jordan Miller and Wooga Poplar have each scored in double figures in each of the past two games. Omier has been a rebounding machine. Miller can't miss. Pack is hitting shots from the logo. And Wong is the Hurricane who was named an honorable mention for AP All-American teams. Miami has the least depth of the remaining teams, but that hasn't mattered yet.
2. Florida Atlantic Owls
3 of 4
The Road Behind: None of these teams was supposed to be here, but least of all the No. 9 seed. Nevertheless, here they are, with a very real chance to win it all. The Owls won an outstanding opening-round game against a red-hot, veteran Memphis team. They outlasted a physical Tennessee team that had just dismantled Duke two days prior. And then they survived another herculean performance from Kansas State's Markquis Nowell in the Elite Eight.
The Road Ahead: On deck is a showdown with yet another old, physical, defensive-minded opponent in the form of San Diego State. But if Memphis couldn't knock out Florida Atlantic and if Tennessee couldn't knock out Florida Atlantic, why should this game be any different? The Owls are undeniably the more well-rounded of the two teams, capable of winning games on either end of the floor. And as long as they can shoot better than 12 percent from three-point range against the Aztecs, they'll be in better shape than SDSU's past two opponents were.
Reason to Buy: The only real concern about Florida Atlantic coming into the dance was its lack of games played against tournament-caliber opponents. Great metrics. No glaring weaknesses. Just no real proof that the Owls could hang with the "big boys." Suffice it to say, that is no longer the case, leaving us to now question why we shouldn't expect this deep, 35-win team to get two more Ws.
Reason to Sell: FAU owned the glass against Kansas State but did commit 22 turnovers. The Owls allowed each of their first three tournament foes to grab at least 13 offensive rebounds, including tiny Fairleigh Dickinson. They might be able to get past San Diego State in spite of those possibly exploitable areas, but struggling on the defensive glass and getting sloppy with the ball is a great way to get pummeled by Connecticut.
Will Win It All If...: They keep playing with that "pit bulls and Rottweilers" mentality. These Owls got that dawg in them, and they haven't backed down from anyone yet. No team seeded No. 9 or worse has ever played in a national championship game, let alone won one. But, come on. We all know FAU deserved a better seed than it got. Plus, seeding has never mattered less than it has in this tournament. If you don't believe the Owls can win this, you haven't been watching for the past two weeks and definitely weren't watching for the past four months.
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1. Connecticut Huskies
4 of 4
The Road Behind: You could argue for Nos. 2-4 in really any order, but there's no debate that UConn needs to be No. 1 in these power rankings. Not only were the Huskies the best of the group during the regular season, but they also have dismantled their tournament competition, winning their first four games by a combined margin of 90 points. They've got some serious work to do in Houston to surpass Kentucky's 1996 record of winning its six games by a combined 129 points, but they're on the right path.
The Road Ahead: Up first is what could be a very high-scoring semifinal against Miami. Connecticut has scored at least 82 points in three of its four games, Miami has scored at least 85 points in three of its four games, and the Hurricanes aren't exactly stellar on defense. Might be gearing up for a repeat of the 2021 Final Four game between UCLA and Gonzaga that went to overtime tied at 81-81. And if this is the point in the tournament where seeds finally decide to hold to form, the Huskies would draw San Diego State in the championship for a rematch of the 2011 Sweet 16 game pitting Kemba Walker against Kawhi Leonard.
Reason to Buy: Well, for starters, Connecticut is No. 1 on KenPom. Some lot of good being top-five did for Houston and Texas when facing Miami last weekend, but the Huskies don't have the cold spells on offense (Houston) or the complete meltdowns on defense (Texas) that occasionally plagued those Lone Star State squads. This team has great depth, able to go eight deep without any dip in production.
Reason to Sell: It hasn't slowed them down yet, but the Huskies sometimes commit too many turnovers and too many fouls. It was most noticeably a problem in two regular-season games against St. John's in which they coughed up the ball 34 times and allowed a combined 66 free-throw attempts. However, committing 15 turnovers and allowing 27 free-throw attempts didn't stop UConn from beating Arkansas by 23 points.
Will Win It All If...: Nothing changes. The Huskies have defended, they've shared the rock, they've shot extremely well and they've gotten solid contributions from throughout the roster. They're the best team still standing, and they should win their fifth national championship dating back to 1999. And if we've learned anything from 2011 and 2014, it's that Connecticut wins it all when the bracket completely loses its mind.
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