Way-Too-Early College Football Upset Picks for 2023
Everybody loves a good upset.
As the ongoing shenanigans in March Madness has taught us—Florida Atlantic or San Diego State in the national final?!—Cinderella stories are the best ones.
And even though college football doesn't have near the parity as college hoops, shockers happen weekly.
In a sport that has been blue-blood dominant over the past several years, those crashing the party with glass slippers such as Cincinnati and TCU become fan favorites, relegating the Georgias, Alabamas, Ohio States, Michigans and Clemsons of the world to villain status.
While we're in the throes of spring practice right now and it's far too early to lock down who 2023's surprise teams may be, it's always fun to look ahead at some potential upsets that could turn the sport on its head.
With the first wave of portal additions in the books, teams have fortified themselves to deal with the nation's elite. So, let's flip through the calendar and make some way-too-early upset predictions for the upcoming season.
Blue bloods beware.
Colorado over TCU, Sep. 2
1 of 11
Some of the fun in doing these is going way, way out on a limb, knowing full-well plenty of things have to line up for a few of these to happen.
The first upset pick may be one of the most far-fetched of them all. After all, even though Colorado and new coach Deion Sanders have stolen plenty of offseason headlines, few expect the Buffaloes to make a bunch of noise in Sanders' first season.
But the arrival bells would ring loud and true with a road win at Fort Worth against defending national runner-up TCU.
Here's the reasoning for putting this on the list: Yes, Sanders sells, but it's undeniable the Horned Frogs are going to go through some growing pains with Max Duggan off to the NFL along with the top two running backs, star receiver Quentin Johnston and several key defensive pieces, too.
Chandler Morris is capable of running the show under center, and coach Sonny Dykes made some nice portal adds. But so did Sanders, who flipped the Buffaloes' entire roster and now has his son, dynamic signal-caller Shedeur Sanders, helming the offense.
The safe money is on Dykes to pull his team through, but Colorado is going to surprise some people this year with how well-coached and talented it is. These are two teams in transition, and if you're going to go upset, go big with a few.
Sanders pulls off a shocker.
Duke over Clemson, Sep. 4
2 of 11
One of the biggest TCU losses that wasn't mentioned on the previous slide was offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, who bolted for Clemson.
Now, he's going to take over a Tigers offense in desperate need of an overhaul from what has been a disappointing run for coach Dabo Swinney in the post-Trevor Lawrence era.
With Cade Klubnik at quarterback, Will Shipley carrying the ball and a linebacking corps that may be the nation's best, big things are expected from Clemson this year.
But the ACC champions must head to a quiet buzz saw in Durham on September 4, and Clemson may not have time to get its offense into sync before taking on an upstart Duke Blue Devils team entering Year 2 under coach Mike Elko.
With Elko's track record, you know the defense is going to be much-improved, and this is a team that would have gotten much more publicity a season ago after going 9-4 if not for the resurgence of out-of-nowhere national contenders like TCU and Tennessee.
Duke is more than a basketball school now, and with Riley Leonard leading the charge at quarterback, the Blue Devils can put up some points and shock teams. Clemson is a step up in competition from anything Duke faced in '22, but Elko is a great coach.
This would provide him a signature win, and the opportunity comes at the perfect time for Duke to punch Clemson before the Tigers get their sea legs under them offensively.
Texas Tech over Oregon, Sep. 9
3 of 11
If you want an upstart sleeper to watch in 2023, you can keep your eyes focused on Texas. But scan a little northwest from TCU in Fort Worth to Lubbock.
That's where you'll find coach Joey McGuire's Texas Tech Red Raiders, which are coming off an 8-5 first year and an annihilation of Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl to surge onto the radar in '23.
They will get an early opportunity to make some national noise when Oregon comes to town with quarterback Bo Nix in tow. Dan Lanning's program is in good shape but will be breaking in a new offensive coordinator after Kenny Dillingham took the head coaching job at Arizona State.
It wouldn't be a surprise if the Ducks took care of business, but Red Raiders fans are starved for a winner, and that environment is going to be hostile.
Additionally, while senior quarterback Tyler Shough has to win the starting job in a battle with Behren Morton, he has the most experience, and it's a strong bet he will be the man early in the season.
Why is that significant? Shough transferred from Oregon, so he would surely love to post a memorable performance against his old teammates in his final collegiate season.
The Ducks have a lot of firepower but have been known to lose a game or two they shouldn't every season, and even though they have a lot of talent, there is some youth, too. Texas Tech has a strong chance for a big-time upset that could kickstart a big year.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Texas over Alabama, Sep. 9
4 of 11
A season ago, Alabama survived a trip to Austin with a 20-19 win over Texas in a game the Crimson Tide couldn't muster much of an offense at all.
Now, they are without star signal-caller Bryce Young, who is almost certain to be one of the top picks in the NFL draft. As always, they lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball, and while they brought in the top-ranked class, there's a lot of transition in Tuscaloosa.
Nobody is saying Nick Saban has lost it, but with two new coordinators and breaking in a new quarterback, Alabama could be vulnerable this year.
An early season trip to the Capstone provides a massive opportunity for Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, who used to be Saban's offensive coordinator. While the 'Horns need to figure out their quarterback between Quinn Ewers and freshman Arch Manning, whoever is under center will have plenty of talent.
Not having Bijan Robinson to run the ball will be big, but Texas has recruited as well as anybody, and talent abounds behind a deep, loaded offensive line.
This game may be about whose new starters and newcomers adapt and adjust more quickly, and while the game being at Alabama is a huge advantage for the Tide, Texas has plenty of experience.
The Longhorns also have offensive playmakers like receivers Xavier Worthy, Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Whittington and Isaiah Neyor, who is coming off an injury. Tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders could be one of the top players at his position in the nation.
If Texas can find somebody to get them the ball, a huge upset could be forthcoming.
Oregon State over Utah, Sep. 29
5 of 11
We're Beaver Believers in this corner.
Coach Jonathan Smith has worked wonders with his alma mater, the Oregon State Beavers, in Corvallis, and it's time for everybody to stand up and take notice.
The best way for that to happen is for Smith's team to step up and make another move in the Pac-12, taking a run at the conference title. After last season's 10-3 season, why not? The first step would be conquering two-time defending champion Utah at home.
The Utes have some key players on both sides of the ball they must replace, and while the Beavers do, too, they made some pivotal moves in the transfer portal this offseason. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is coming over from Clemson to battle with Ben Gulbranson, and he could add a dimension Oregon State isn't used to.
Pair him with Damien Martinez, who nearly had 1,000 rushing yards in his debut a season ago, and this Oregon State team is very dangerous.
That's not even mentioning a defense that led the league in total defense and scoring defense a season ago. While Uiagalelei couldn't get his career untracked the way he wanted with the Tigers, a change of scenery may unlock his terrific talent.
Washington is getting a lot of headlines as the biggest threat to Utah and USC in the Pac-12, but that league is deep with good teams, and the Beavers may be the best—despite the lack of headlines.
This would be a perfect opportunity to prove to everybody that they've taken a major leap forward.
Ole Miss over LSU, Sep. 30
6 of 11
Ole Miss' 2022 season was simply not good enough, and everybody around Oxford knows it. That's why coach Lane Kiffin went out and made some significant changes.
Whether they were the right ones or not remains to be seen, but Kiffin needs to rediscover the winning formula from a couple of seasons ago.
Getting defensive coordinator Pete Golding from Alabama could be a boom-or-bust hire. While Golding is a terrific recruiter who experienced some success in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide's defense underachieved at times, and many fans weren't disappointed to see him go.
He still should be an upgrade over last season, and on the other side of the ball, the infusion of Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard to the quarterback room will either help Jaxson Dart elevate his play or relegate him to backup duties.
LSU may be the best in the SEC West again this season after toppling the Tide and winning that division last year. Coach Brian Kelly returns a lot of playmakers, but there are far too many good teams on that side of the ledger for upsets not to happen.
Ole Miss hates LSU, and that is an underrated rivalry. Getting them in Oxford midway through the season will give the Rebels time to figure out their quarterback situation and pull off what would be considered a big, season-shaking win.
Jayden Daniels and Co. are going to put up some points for the Bayou Bengals, but this isn't a program quite ready to compete for championships yet. Look for Ole Miss to pull off a big victory.
Notre Dame over USC, Oct. 14
7 of 11
USC was exposed by Utah and Tulane at the end of the 2022 season, and questions won't be answered until the Trojans can prove they can be better on defense.
If it doesn't happen soon, coach Lincoln Riley may endure a coaching search looking to replace Alex Grinch.
The Trojans added some nice portal pieces like Oklahoma State linebacker Mason Cobb and Texas A&M defensive lineman Anthony Lucas, among others, to fortify that side of the ball. There are no offensive issues with Caleb Williams leading the way and the best receiving corps in the nation.
But Notre Dame didn't roll over in last year's 38-27 loss to USC, and coach Marcus Freeman went out and added the top quarterback from the portal in Wake Forest's Sam Hartman to lead the offense.
Gone are the offensive question marks, and this is exactly the type of stage on which Hartman needs to shine to see his NFL stock soar. Now, with USC having to travel across the country to South Bend, it feels like payback is in order.
If the Trojans can get through this game and look good doing it, they may just be for real, not only as a Pac-12 contender but as a College Football Playoff participant. But that's a huge "if."
Freeman's Irish weren't ready in his first season, and the quarterback injuries and issues didn't help. That biggest question has been answered, so look for them to get a big win that propels Notre Dame into the playoff conversation.
Wisconsin over Ohio State, Oct. 28
8 of 11
Much like Alabama, Ohio State has quarterback uncertainty, even if the players in the race to win that competition are elite.
The good news for the Buckeyes is they have time to figure things out, and the talent around whoever replaces C.J. Stroud will be as good as any group in the nation.
But the Big Ten has really elevated its game in 2023 by hiring Luke Fickell (Wisconsin) and Matt Rhule (Nebraska). With James Franklin's Penn State Nittany Lions coming on, too, this isn't just about the Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines anymore.
Arguably, nobody snagged a better new offensive duo than Fickell did when he went out and got SMU quarterback transfer Tanner Mordecai and paired him with North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Mordecai has played a ton of football, and Longo knows how to produce points.
When you pair them with Badgers star running back Braelon Allen and a defense that's always strong, what you have is a team that could make a lot of noise in a conference that has become a bit of a two-team race recently.
Avenging a 52-21 loss to the Buckeyes in Columbus from a year ago amid coaching and roster strife would be a huge step for Fickell's program, and re-establishing Camp Randall as a place nobody wants to play would be terrific, too.
The Badgers can accomplish both with a late-season win over Ohio State, and you'd better believe the game is circled as a biggie.
Miami over Florida State, Nov. 11
9 of 11
If you were gauging a heat-check on offseason storylines, nobody has been anointed the "Next Big Thing" among college football contenders like the Florida State Seminoles, and for good reason.
Coach Mike Norvell returns starting quarterback Jordan Travis, most of his offensive playmakers and has outfitted his strong defense with great portal players, too. The 'Noles should be Clemson's biggest threat in the ACC.
But are they ready to run the table or really compete for titles? A stretch of losses to ranked teams amid a strong season in '22 proves lapses are still something the program is trying to weed out.
Meanwhile, few first-year coaches with high expectations laid a bigger egg than Mario Cristobal returning to his alma mater at Miami. The U didn't even make a bowl game last year.
But the Hurricanes injected a ton of talent via recruiting and the transfer portal, and if new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson can rekindle some of Tyler Van Dyke's magic from a couple of seasons ago following an injury-plagued 2022, look out. The 'Canes could be drastically improved.
This is a big roll of the dice to project this game as an upset, considering FSU rolled into Coral Gables a season ago and dismantled Miami 45-3.
But there's no way Cristobal's team is going to look the way it did a season ago, and while Florida State could still win the ACC, a letdown has to come somewhere. At least in the preseason, this looks like one of the biggest upsets of the year if it were to happen.
Penn State over Michigan, Nov. 11
10 of 11
The Florida State Seminoles are a lot of folks' sleeper pick for the College Football Playoff, but we're rolling with Penn State for that honor.
The Nittany Lions lost four-year starting quarterback Sean Clifford, but Drew Allar is a major talent upgrade who has special arm talent and could be one of the top newcomers in college football.
Everywhere else, Penn State is strong. Defense and the running game are particular strengths. The offensive line took a major step forward in 2022 and returns plenty of talent.
Even with a terrific season a year ago and an 11-2 record, a 41-17 dismantling by Michigan stands out as a black eye. The Wolverines' offensive line opened gaping holes on their way to a 418-yard rushing performance in Ann Arbor that exposed the Lions.
Now, coach James Franklin's team will get the Wolverines in Happy Valley in what is almost certain to be a raucous environment and a white-out crowd. This game should feature a ton of intensity and could have major conference ramifications once again.
While Ohio State must replace its quarterback, the Wolverines return pretty much everybody from last year's College Football Playoff semifinalist. Maybe this could be the year for Jim Harbaugh's team.
But Penn State has a lot riding on this, too, and by the time this game rolls around, Allar is going to be settled in with all that talent around him. Look for this to be a close, high-scoring slugfest between two powers. I like Penn State to pull off the upset at home.
Tennessee over Georgia, Nov. 18
11 of 11
A season ago, the national-champion Georgia Bulldogs were written off after having to replace virtually their entire defense lost to the NFL draft.
All they did was ride quarterback Stetson Bennett to an undefeated season and another national championship.
But can the Dawgs become the first team in the modern era to go back-to-back-to-back, especially now that college football's biggest gamer in recent memory (Bennett) is gone?
While it's hard to bet against them, it's also tough to bet against history, which says it won't happen. But if you look at their schedule, there aren't a ton of pitfalls. The biggest roadblock appears to be a trip to Knoxville late in the season.
A year ago, the Dawgs' defense overwhelmed Hendon Hooker and the top-ranked Vols in Athens, humbling them with a 27-13 win in wet conditions. The Vols still went on to win 11 games and beat Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
Now, coach Josh Heupel's team gets a chance to return the favor in Neyland Stadium, and though replacing Hooker won't be an easy task, Joe Milton III has the skill set to make all the throws, and there are weapons all over Tennessee's offense.
The Vols' defense should take a big step forward in '23, too, so even though Georgia absolutely should be favored, this won't be an easy trip. If the Vols win, they could surge to the top of the East.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
