Men's Final Four 2023: Full Breakdown, Predictions and Stars to Watch
So, how's your 2023 men's NCAA tournament bracket looking?
You totally had a No. 4, two No. 5s and a No. 9 seed reaching the Final Four, right?
That's a joke, of course. Even the Connecticut Huskies, Miami Hurricanes, San Diego State Aztecs and Florida Atlantic Owls couldn't have predicted this run of absolute chaos.
Three of these four programs have never been to a Final Four before, making this the first Final Four with three newcomers since 1970. And while Connecticut has won four titles in the past quarter century, it hadn't even sniffed this round of the NCAA tournament since last winning it all in 2014.
As far as what to expect from the final three games in Houston, your guess is as good as ours.
But let's make it as knowledgeable a guess as possible, shall we?
To help you best prepare for the final weekend of this season, we've put together a comprehensive breakdown of the four teams still standing.
We'll take a look at how they got here, how they can keep winning, the biggest storylines for each team, the brightest stars, the underrated guys to watch out for and, of course, predictions.
Florida Atlantic Owls
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Record: 35-3, No. 9 seed in East Region
Path to Final Four: 66-65 over No. 8 Memphis, 78-70 over No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, 62-55 over No. 4 Tennessee, 79-76 over No. 3 Kansas State
Biggest Strengths: Shoots 36.5 percent from three, averaging nearly 10 triples per game; excellent rebounding team, in spite of its lack of size
Biggest Weaknesses: Barely top 200 in steal rate; barely top 300 in block rate
How They Got Here
Fittingly for a group of nocturnal birds, Florida Atlantic has done its best work late in games.
With 10 minutes remaining in the opener against Memphis, FAU trailed 51-44. At more or less the same juncture in the subsequent games, the Owls trailed FDU by five, Tennessee by six and Kansas State by seven. But this is a fourth-quarter team, winning the final 10 minutes of their first four games by a combined score of 98-66.
That's a credit to their depth, as the Owls play nine guys for 16-26 minutes per night and always have fresh legs late in games.
They've also owned the glass. Rebound margin wasn't much of a story in their first three games, but they did post a positive number in each of those contests prior to eviscerating Kansas State 44-22 in that department.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if Florida Atlantic had lost that C-USA semifinal against Middle Tennessee?
The Owls lost to the Blue Raiders in mid-February and were in danger of doing so again in mid-March in a game that was all knotted up at 57-57 with a little over three minutes remaining.
FAU held on for the win and went on to destroy UAB in the C-USA championship. But where would the Owls have landed if they had lost that Quad 3 game against MTSU?
A No. 10 seed?
A play-in game?
The NIT?
A 29-win team missing the Big Dance would have set an NCAA record. (A few teams have missed the cut with 28 wins.) But with no marquee victories to the Owls' credit, it potentially could have happened here.
Connecticut Huskies
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Record: 29-8, No. 4 seed in West Region
Path to Final Four: 87-63 over No. 13 Iona, 70-55 over No. 5 Saint Mary's, 88-65 over No. 8 Arkansas, 82-54 over No. 3 Gonzaga
Biggest Strengths: No. 2 in the nation in rebound margin and offensive rebound percentage
Biggest Weaknesses: Allows 21.0 free-throw attempts per game; ranks 232nd in offensive turnover percentage
How They Got Here
While Florida Atlantic has owned the last 10 minutes of games, those first 10 minutes after halftime have been Connecticut's personal playground.
The Huskies outscored Iona 17-4 in the first five minutes of the second half, put together 14-2 runs against both Saint Mary's and Arkansas and then just blew the doors off Gonzaga with a 28-12 run after the intermission.
The Arkansas game was already over by halftime, but UConn was trailing Iona, led Saint Mary's by one and was up seven on Gonzaga in a competitive game. But for the final 10 minutes of every game thus far in the Dance, Connecticut has been able to enter "just don't get injured" mode, winning each game by at least a 15-point margin.
They're now 15-0 in nonconference games and have won them all by double digits.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if they didn't scuffle through that rough patch in the middle of the season?
There hasn't been an undefeated champion in men's college basketball since 1975-76 Indiana. But for a while there in November and December, it was starting to look like UConn could put an end to that drought. The Huskies breezed through a loaded PK85, destroying everything in their path for seven weeks.
But then came the four-week stretch in which they lost six out of eight games, including getting embarrassed at home in an 11-point loss to St. John's. A team that looked like a juggernaut was repeatedly humbled, allowing at least 82 points in four of those losses after holding its first 14 opponents to 59.1 points per game.
I'm not a believer in the notion that it's beneficial to lose a game at some point in the season in order to avoid the mounting pressure of trying to run the table, but that skid may have been exactly what the Huskies needed to refocus, because they have been a freight train once again for the bulk of the past two months.
Miami Hurricanes
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Record: 29-7, No. 5 seed in Midwest Region
Path to Final Four: 63-56 over No. 12 Drake; 85-69 over No. 4 Indiana; 89-75 over No. 1 Houston; 88-81 over No. 2 Texas
Biggest Strengths: Averages nearly 80 points per game; top 10 percent nationally in 3P%, 2P% and FT%
Biggest Weaknesses: No. 104 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency; almost too dependent on the starting five
How They Got Here
Suffice it to say, the only similarity between the runs of No. 5 Miami and No. 5 San Diego State is that they started out as a popular pick to be upset in the first round. Because while the Aztecs have done it with top-notch defense, the Hurricanes' run has been fueled entirely by offense.
It took a while for that offense to get going in the first game against Drake, but they caught fire late in that one and haven't cooled off since.
Scoring 30 points in the final 10 minutes against Indiana and 35 points in the final 11 minutes against Texas was remarkable, but dropping 89 points on Houston was nothing short of absurd.
Not only had no team touched 80 in a game against the Cougars this season, but you have to go back to a February 2018 game against Memphis to find the last time a team put up 90 against this defense. Even in its loss to Alabama this season, Houston only allowed 71 points and completely shut down Brandon Miller.
Nevertheless, Nijel Pack and Co. made mincemeat of that defense and look ready to score their way to a title.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if Norchad Omier had badly injured his ankle?
Miami's big man suffered an ankle injury in its ACC semifinal loss to Duke. It definitely did not look like he'd be able to play basketball again within a week.
And this is not a team with much frontcourt depth.
Anthony Walker is solid in short spurts as Omier's reserve, but if the 'Canes had to go with him as the starter and freshman AJ Casey as the backup, it could've been a very short stay in the NCAA tournament.
Not only has Omier played, but he has been spectacular in the paint, averaging 10.5 points and 13.3 rebounds.
He might not be their shiniest star, but he is beyond indispensable. Miami is 15-1 when he records a double-double.
San Diego State Aztecs
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Record: 31-6, No. 5 seed in South Region
Path to Final Four: 63-57 over No. 12 Charleston, 75-52 over No. 13 Furman, 71-64 over No. 1 Alabama, 57-56 over No. 6 Creighton
Biggest Strengths: No. 2 in the nation in three-point defense; allows 63 points per game
Biggest Weaknesses: No. 223 in the nation in effective field-goal percentage; average team pretty much across the board
How They Got Here
Defense. Defense. Oh, also, defense.
Three-point defense is inherently a bit random. Case in point: Tennessee led the nation at 26.5 percent allowed but also lost a home game to Missouri when the Tigers shot 14-of-26 from distance.
So, who knows how well this three-point defense holds up in the Final Four against a strong perimeter-shooting Florida Atlantic squad.
Thus far, however, San Diego State's perimeter defense has been unbelievably stingy.
It started in the Mountain West championship against Utah State, in which the Aztecs held an excellent Aggies offense to 4-of-24 from distance. Then in the Dance, Charleston went 5-of-24, Furman was 6-of-26, Alabama couldn't buy a bucket at 3-of-27 and neither could Creighton at 2-of-17.
Add it all up and you're looking at 20-of-118 (16.9 percent) from three-point range—for five offenses who each averaged at least 8.7 made threes per game this season.
As a result, a good San Diego State defense has become downright impenetrable, allowing 57.3 points in the tournament.
Biggest Regular-Season 'What If?'
What if San Diego State had won that overtime game against Arkansas in Maui?
In the entire regular season, San Diego State played three games against teams that earned a single-digit seed in the Dance: a 17-point loss to Arizona, a seven-point loss to Saint Mary's and an overtime loss to Arkansas, all on neutral courts.
Similar to Florida Atlantic, the metrics loved this San Diego State squad, but there were no great wins to show for all their efficiency.
The selection committee clearly had questions about this team, but so did basically everyone who filled out a bracket.
Not saying San Diego State would have been a popular Final Four pick if it had been able to eke out a November win over the Razorbacks, but it might have at least been a No. 4 seed. And if not, it would've been easier to at least pick the Aztecs to win their opener against Charleston if they had done anything more noteworthy than a three-game sweep of fellow metrics darling Utah State.
Biggest Storylines
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Florida Atlantic's Biggest Storyline: The ultimate fairy-tale ending
Since the NCAA started officially seeding the field in 1979, eight teams seeded No. 9 or worse have reached the Final Four. None of those teams have played in the subsequent national championship, let alone won the whole shebang. But could this little-known program from Boca Raton do the unthinkable by winning it all? Jim Larrañaga couldn't do it. Neither could Shaka Smart. But Dusty May.
Connecticut's Biggest Storyline: The program that thrives in broken tournaments
When the Huskies won it all in 2011, the combined seed total of the teams in the Final Four (26) was the highest in NCAA tournament history. And when No. 7 Connecticut knocked off No. 8 Kentucky for the 2014 title, it was the highest combined seed total in the national championship, breaking the record that had been set in UConn's 2011 title. For whatever reason, when the bracket completely shatters, Connecticut emerges from the wreckage to win it all.
Miami's Biggest Storyline: Offense winning a championship
Over the past 20 NCAA tournaments, the only team to reach the Final Four after starting the tournament 90th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency was VCU in 2011. Those Rams were ranked 138th, and these Hurricanes were ranked 131st. They've already rewritten the bracket-picking script of never, ever trusting a top-10 offense that doesn't play top-75 defense, but they could emphatically shatter that mold by winning a title.
San Diego State's Biggest Storyline: Playing for a spot in the Pac-12?
The Pac-12 has not won a national championship since Arizona in 1997, and no matter what happens in the next few months, a 2023 San Diego State title wouldn't count as an end to that drought. But with UCLA and USC on their way to the Big Ten, the talk of San Diego State possibly going to the Pac-12 has been gaining steam for some time. Realignment is, of course, predominantly fueled by the football side of things, but a national championship in men's college hoops certainly wouldn't hurt San Diego State's case for an invitation to a power conference.
Most Outstanding Player Candidates
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Florida Atlantic's MOP Candidate: Johnell Davis
Tournament Stats: 17.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.5 SPG
For most of the season, FAU has been the quintessential "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" team. However, there is no debate that Davis has been the Owls' star since at least the beginning of the Conference USA tournament. He has scored at least a dozen in 10 straight games and was particularly out of control against Fairleigh Dickinson. Davis took that game over in the second half, putting together one of the more absurd stat lines you'll ever see in a tournament game: 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and five steals.
Connecticut's MOP Candidate: Adama Sanogo
Tournament Stats: 20.0 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.3 BPG
Sanogo shot 33-of-44 (75.0 percent) from the field in his first three games, spearheading Connecticut's efficient destruction of those early foes. And while his shot wasn't falling against Gonzaga (3-of-11 from the field), he still posted a double-double and picked a mighty fine time to set a career high with six assists.
Miami's MOP Candidate: Nijel Pack
Tournament Stats: 18.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 SPG
Take your pick, really. Pack has been great, but so have Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller and Norchad Omier. Any of the four could be the star of the show in Houston. Though if anyone is going to get hot from distance and flirt with a Final Four 30 burger, it's probably Pack, who torched an excellent Houston defense with his long-range triples. When he scores at least 20 points, Miami is 8-0.
San Diego State's MOP Candidate: Darrion Trammell
Tournament Stats: 12.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.0 APG
Matt Bradley would've been the clear choice here heading into the tournament, but he was a ghost over the weekend against Alabama and Creighton, leaving Trammell to step into that void. The former transfer from Seattle had 21 points in the win over Alabama. And though he struggled from the field against Creighton, Trammell hit the game-winning free throw with 1.2 seconds remaining. Those are the types of moments that voters remember when it's time to fill out those all-tournament ballots.
Underrated Players to Watch
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Florida Atlantic's Underrated Player to Watch: Giancarlo Rosado
Tournament Stats: 6.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 BPG
The 7'1" Vlad Goldin generates a lot of attention for the work that he does as the only legitimate big man while he's on the floor. But for the 15 or so minutes per game that Goldin spends on the bench, it's up to this 6'8" forward to hold down the fort in the paint. And Rosado does his job well, averaging 13.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.2 blocks per 40 minutes on the season.
Connecticut's Underrated Player to Watch: Andre Jackson Jr.
Tournament Stats: 7.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.0 SPG
Throughout this season, Jackson has been Connecticut's glue guy; a versatile wing/forward who plays with his hair on fire on defense and who pitches in a good number of rebounds and assists while rarely looking for his own shot. And that hasn't changed in the tournament. Against Gonzaga, he went for 10 assists, nine rebounds and eight points with no turnovers. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, he can be the rudder for this champion-ship.
Miami's Underrated Player to Watch: Wooga Poplar
Tournament Stats: 12.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 SPG
For most teams, someone averaging a dozen points per game could hardly be considered under the radar. For most of the season, though, Poplar had been something of a fifth wheel in an offense where the other four starters each average north of 13 points. Having him consistently contribute on offense has been a bonus for the Hurricanes, and it's hard to imagine anyone slowing this freight train down if he keeps filling up the box score.
San Diego State's Underrated Player to Watch: Nathan Mensah
Tournament Stats: 5.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.0 BPG
If Andre Jackson Jr. counts as underrated, well then so does Mensah, even though he's impossible to miss in the defensive paint. San Diego State hardly ever runs offense for Mensah, and given some of the bunnies he missed against Creighton, it's not hard to see why. But he is an eraser at the rim and an excellent rebounder. He barely plays 20 minutes per game, though, so double those numbers above to get a better sense of his impact while on the floor.
Florida Atlantic's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Florida Atlantic will become the most improbable national champion in men's college basketball history.
1. Get the threes to start falling.
The Owls hit threes at a 39.1 percent clip against Kansas State Saturday night, but that merely got them up to 31.2 percent for the tournament after starting out with three straight games below 30 percent. Throughout the season, the deep ball was one of this team's biggest strengths, making at least 10 triples in 18 of their first 30 games. But after eight consecutive games with nine or fewer makes, maybe they can get that calling card to make a cameo appearance in Houston.
2. Keep dominating on the glass.
The 6'3" Nick Boyd is averaging 6.0 rebounds per game in the tournament; 6'4" Johnell Davis has him beat at 7.8 rebounds. And while 6'2" Alijah Martin is only at 3.8, they all seem to come at huge moments. FAU should be getting out-worked on the glass on a nightly basis, but a lineup that always has four players 6'4" or shorter on the floor is somehow sitting at plus-234 in rebound margin for the year.
3. Perimeter/help defense clamps down.
FAU doesn't force many turnovers, but it allows the second-lowest assist rate in the nation. The Owls take a very "Saint Mary's" approach to defense, sticking with shooters on the perimeter and pretty much daring opponents to try their luck at driving to the rim for buckets, knowing that either Vlad Goldin or Giancarlo Rosado will be there to to alter/block shots. Might have a problem trying to stifle a big-bodied, driving guard. But so far, so good.
Connecticut's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Connecticut will win its fifth national championship in the past quarter-century, tying Duke and Indiana for the fourth-most in men's college basketball history.
1. Keep owning the paint.
Not only is Connecticut consistently winning the rebound battle by a wide margin, but it has destroyed its competition in the two-pointers department. In each of their first three games, the Huskies shot at least 14 percentage points better on twos than they allowed. And while that trend came to a screeching halt against Gonzaga, it's because they started missing bunnies, not allowing them. Adama Sanogo, Donovan Clingan and Co. limited the lethal Zags offense to 45.0 percent shooting on twos, which simply never happens.
2. Share the sugar.
Dating back to Jan. 22, Connecticut is 14-0 when assisting on better than 50 percent of its made field goals but 0-3 when finishing at 50 percent or worse in that department. Tristen Newton and Andre Jackson Jr. are the primary distributors, but sharing the rock is a teamwide strength that legitimately dictates whether the Huskies win or lose. They have nine guys who can all play a key role in a win, and things go much better for them when they make it a point to avoid hero ball and get everyone involved.
3. Keep raining threes.
Connecticut is so good in the paint and on defense (four straight opponents held below 39 percent from the field) that it doesn't really need three-pointers to succeed. But shooting 41-of-98 (41.8 percent) from distance sure has made it easier to cruise to victories thus far in the Dance. In particular, Jordan Hawkins (16-of-31) has been on fire, leading the team in made threes in each game. If he stays hot, hard to envision this team losing.
Miami's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and Miami will win its first national championship.
1. Stay. On. Fire.
Miami scored 85 points against Indiana, 89 against Houston and 88 against Texas. The Hurricanes have taken the "defense wins championships" mantra, balled it up and swished it into a trash can for three points. All five starters scored in double figures in each of the past two games, and that is how you make up for a defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally.
2. Stay out of foul trouble.
The Hurricanes have flirted with disaster in this department in every game. Wooga Poplar had four fouls against Drake. Jordan Miller had four against Indiana. Nijel Pack was whistled four times against Houston. Norchad Omier had four against Texas. There's a little bit of depth on this roster, but there's no question Miami wants its five starters on the court as much as possible. A whistle-heavy game could be this team's undoing.
3. Keep winning the turnover battle.
While its overall defensive efficiency leaves much to be desired, Miami isn't exactly gently guiding the opposition to open buckets. The Hurricanes have active hands, resulting in nine steals against Texas and resulting in a tournament run where they have yet to lose the turnover battle. If they keep getting more takeaways than giveaways, they'll be in good shape to win any game.
San Diego State's 3-Step Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen, and San Diego State will win its first national championship, as well as California's first title since UCLA last won one in 1995.
1. Keep praying to the three-point gods.
There's good defense, and then there's preposterously good luck over a short sample size. San Diego State has had both on its side. Five consecutive opponents shooting 23.1 percent or worse from three-point range is simply unheard of. But at NRG Stadium, where three-point shooting often goes to die under an avalanche of bricks, maybe the Aztecs can push that streak to seven games.
2. Get Matt Bradley going.
Even more unfathomable than SDSU's three-point defense luck as of late is that the Aztecs won their last two games despite leading scorer Matt Bradley shooting 3-of-17 from the field and scoring eight points against Alabama and Creighton. The Aztecs barely survived while Alabama and Creighton shot a combined 5-of-44 from distance, because Bradley wasn't making any shots on the other end, either. They need him to heat up for this final weekend.
3. Don't be afraid to get physical.
Of the four remaining teams, San Diego State is the only one that has a free-throw rate on offense that is above the national average. Connecticut can get a little overly physical on defense, but the three non-SDSU offenses would all prefer a free-flowing game. San Diego State should try to do everything in its power to keep that from happening.
Predictions
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No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic: Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Which incredible run comes to an end: San Diego State's improbable three-point luck or Florida Atlantic's Cinderella story?
Maybe both?
Or possibly neither?
FAU could win a game in which it isn't hitting threes. We've already seen that three times in this tournament.
But it's also plausible that the Owls shoot 40 percent from distance and still lose, as a result of San Diego State doing too much damage elsewhere.
This tournament has been more unpredictable than ever before, after all.
But I like the Owls here. They proved in the wins over Memphis and Tennessee that they can more than hold their own against a physical, veteran team, and the Aztecs simply have not shown much on offense in this tournament, held below one point per possession in three of four games.
Prediction: Florida Atlantic 62-57
No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Miami: Saturday at (approx.) 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS)
On the one hand, Connecticut is the obvious choice. The Huskies are the much more well-rounded team, capable of dominating the game on either end of the floor, while Miami is susceptible to giving up more than 80 points on any given night.
On the other hand, Houston and Texas were the obvious choices against Miami, and that didn't much matter, did it?
It does feel like Connecticut is better equipped to deal with Miami's type of game, though.
Both Houston and Texas had great efficiency metrics on offense, but neither is exactly comfortable in a points-a-palooza affair. They want to efficiently score, like, 76 points and put the game away with defense.
Whereas UConn is perfectly happy to play a game where it feels like it's going to take 90 points to win. The Huskies can make it rain from distance and can clean up on the offensive glass when those shots aren't falling. And their perimeter defense can keep Miami from getting into a rhythm.
Prediction: Connecticut 83-77
No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic: Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET (CBS)
Connecticut won it all against a No. 8 seed in both 2011 and 2014, so it's almost fitting that it should end yet another title run against a team that opened the tournament in one of those quintessential coin-flip games.
Fingers crossed that this Connecticut national championship game at NRG Stadium is less of an unwatchable rock fight than its 53-41 victory over Butler in 2011, though playing a game in the muck might be Florida Atlantic's only real chance at pulling off an all-time stunner.
While it would be amazing if former Connecticut transfer Jalen Gaffney comes out of nowhere with a season-high 15 points in a win for the Owls, got to go with the Huskies here. They were the clear pick in November and December, and they've become the clear pick at the finish line.
Prediction: Connecticut 75-64
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