Paolo Banchero, Evan Mobley and NBA Players Who Can Be Future Stars
The search for NBA stars is essential to building a winning team. Find one, and the hardest part of constructing a viable roster is finished.
The task of picking out players with the most potential for greatness isn't just job No. 1 for front offices. It's also one of the most exciting parts of being a fan. Nothing's more satisfying than buying early shares in a player before his stock skyrockets. That's when you get to say you knew stardom was assured all along, and everyone loves bragging rights.
As we look around the league at candidates for future stardom, we're disqualifying anyone who's already collected an individual award. That means no All-NBA nods or All-Star berths, no Defensive Player of the Year honors or even Rookie of the Year hardware. The one exception: Players who've made All-Rookie teams are allowed because placement on one of those squads doesn't mean stardom is assured.
Plenty of future Hall of Famers started out by making an All-Rookie team, but so did Eric Paschall (2019-20), Josh Jackson (2017-18) and Marquese Chriss (2016-17), all of whom are out of the league.
Our anti-awards rule costs us plenty of players you might have expected to see:
Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, Jaren Jackson Jr., LaMelo Ball and tons of other under-25 up-and-comers are out of the race. They're already stars and shouldn't steal spots from the guys we'll dig a little deeper to feature here.
These are the so-far-unheralded talents who'll level up and become marquee names in short order.
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Too often this season, Evan Mobley faced questions about his development and ceiling. Much of that concern stemmed from numbers that didn't look all that different from last year's. When set against the early narrative that framed Mobley as a potentially generational stud on the level of Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett (defensively, at least), the 21-year-old's marginal growth underwhelmed.
It became harder for his true believers (raises hand) to dismiss a sophomore season that, on the surface, looked quite a bit like his solid-but-imperfect rookie year.
Consider this a reassurance that the Mobley faithful will be rewarded.
For starters, the numbers are better. Mobley's counting stats are up a tad, and it's not just because he's playing slightly more. His per-36 averages of 17.1 points, 2.9 assists, 9.3 rebounds and 4.2 free-throw attempts are all above the levels he set in 2021-22.
Add to that upticks in free-throw and two-point percentage (from 54.1 percent to 59.6 percent, a notable climb), and you've got more signs of progress. Finally, the advanced metrics are even stronger signals that Mobley hasn't stalled.
In fact, that undersells it. Some of those catch-alls absolutely love him. Mobley leads the league in defensive win shares and ESPN's defensive real plus/minus, and he ranks in the top 10 of the entire NBA in RPM wins.
Granted, metrics like estimated plus/minus and RAPTOR aren't nearly as enthused. But if they were, Mobley wouldn't even warrant a mention here because he'd already be a present star. That he excels in a handful of stats but not all of them is the perfect support for the argument that he could become one in the future.
We've focused mainly on numbers, but the real validation of Mobley's down-the-line excellence shows up when you watch him. Listed at 6'11", Mobley darts around the floor with the quickness of a much smaller player. His length makes that mobility pay off double; Mobley is the rare rim protector who can also stretch that shot deterrence way out on the floor. Nobody has contested more threes this season than he has.
Offensively, Mobley isn't a first-option scorer right now. But he's in his second season. It's way too early to close the book on that possibility. If he tightens his handle, develops his off-the-dribble jumper out to the three-point line and adds strength to his frame, who knows what might be in the cards for him?
Already, he's showing an advanced understanding of how to attack as a roll man; his accuracy at the rim and on non-paint twos is rising; and he's averaging 18.7 points with a 59.9 true shooting percentage since the All-Star break.
Mobley is a defensive star, and he's only getting better on the other end. Maybe it won't satisfy the impatient types who wanted him to become peak KG overnight, but Mobley is going to become one of the league's best overall players in a year or two.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
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By now, you're aware of the momentum behind Jalen Williams' late push to challenge Paolo Banchero for Rookie of the Year. Whether the Oklahoma City Thunder's 21-year-old do-it-all wing wins the award or not, the fact that he's been good enough to turn Banchero's runaway victory into an actual race says everything about his growth trajectory.
Williams' production since the All-Star break is undeniably tantalizing. He's putting up 18.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists on a 64.5 true shooting percentage, four-category stats equaled or bettered this season by five players: Nikola Jokić, Domantas Sabonis, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Zion Williamson.
Williams' post-break numbers come from fewer than 20 total games, so we should be somewhat skeptical about their sustainability. But the search for future stars is all about seeing signs of something special in small samples. Mix the stats with the eye test that reveals Williams' intelligence, advanced contact-drawing craft, ball-handling and shot-making, and it gets easier to envision a future in which he belongs in the same conversation with some of the names above.
There aren't many players with an arsenal of swooping hooks, floaters and below-the-rim finishes like Williams' who can also rise and finish with such authority.
All those slick buckets are coming from a guy who has the second-most dunks this season among players listed at 6'6" or under.
A sturdy frame, 7'2" wing span and quick feet make Williams a versatile defender capable of holding his ground against forwards and guards alike. Because he plays with Luguentz Dort, who is in the NBA principally because of his ability to smother top offensive options, Williams doesn't always get the toughest assignments. But the list of names he's spent the most time guarding this season is still impressive. The top 10 includes Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant and Spencer Dinwiddie.
The Orlando Magic task Banchero with primary shot-creation duties, a huge ask for a rookie and part of the reason his ROY case remains extremely strong. Williams, though, is averaging just as many assists per 36 minutes as Banchero with a much lower turnover rate.
Knowing the passing numbers may actually favor Williams, his supporters in the ROY race could argue that Banchero's edge in "shot creation" really just means he's capable of generating a large number of difficult looks for himself. That's valuable if Banchero can hit them efficiently, but it's damaging if he can't.
This feels like a good time to mention Banchero went 1-of-33 on threes in February.
Banchero is probably going to win Rookie of the Year, but Williams is coming on strong and might be the safer bet to achieve stardom because he has so many ways to make positive impacts. He could become a scalable three-and-D wing, an oversized point guard, a deadly spot-up threat or a rare hybrid of all those archetypes.
In contrast, Banchero seems to have just a single path to stardom. If he doesn't develop into a more efficient top-option scorer, it's harder to imagine him shining.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
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Maybe using Banchero as a foil when making the case for Williams' eventual stardom was unfair. As The Athletic's David Aldridge pointed out in the context of the MVP debate, we don't need to knock one player down to lift another.
If anything, Banchero's gifts are more conspicuous. There aren't many 6'10" forwards whose principal skill is individual shot creation. And if Banchero's ability to make those shots catches up to his ability to generate them, he's basically guaranteed to become an All-Star and leading scorer in a very dangerous offense.
The level of responsibility the Orlando Magic have given Banchero in his age-20 season is a strong indication they believe that's exactly where he's headed.
No rookie averages more touches per game than Banchero's 64.6, and few forwards of any experience level have to manufacture their own offense as frequently. Just 46.0 percent of Banchero's baskets are assisted, an extremely low rate without even considering his youth.
Even more remarkably, he ranks in the 94th percentile in unassisted three-point field goals. To an extent experienced by very few young players, Banchero is on his own offensively. In light of that, we can forgive his jarringly low 52.7 true shooting percentage.
Better to focus on his production while acknowledging the high degree of difficulty.
Only three other players aged 20 or younger have ever matched what Banchero could achieve this season. If he can nudge his scoring average up from 19.8 points per game, he'll join LeBron James, Luka Dončić and Zion Williamson as the only players that young to average at least 20.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 7.0 free-throw attempts per game. That's stellar company.
The upside of a 6'10" forward who can run an offense is undeniable. It affords a team so many rare roster-construction opportunities. If Banchero pops, the Magic can surround him with defensive aces and shooters at every position, creating the option to field like-sized lineups that can switch and overwhelm with length. When you don't need facilitation or pick-and-roll verve from an undersized point guard, options abound.
Nobody's saying Banchero is going to reach James' or Dončić's level, but his combination of size and skill is ridiculously valuable. Though he's not perfect, and though his route to stardom almost requires that he excel in a specific and difficult role, excluding Banchero from this list would have been a clear case of overthinking it.
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Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
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Without question the longest-odds future star on the list, Alperen Şengün deserves a spot here in large part because he has the potential to be such an uncommon high-impact player.
Maybe his presence in the league alongside two-time MVP Nikola Jokić and Sacramento Kings big man Domantas Sabonis means center-sized offensive hubs are going to become more common, but that's still an exceedingly rare player type at the moment.
And a fun one!
Şengün is a polished post scorer who can finish with either hand and turn over either shoulder. That level of craft is necessary because he's undersized for the position at 6'9" and because his athleticism makes below-the-rim finishing a must. Good feet, hands and processing speed give Şengün enough advantages to outmaneuver bigger and better athletes, and his float game offers another useful workaround.
Of course, we've buried the lede by waiting until now to mention Şengün's passing, the gift that gives him the best chance to play a Jokić/Sabonis role in the future.
No 20-year-old center had ever posted an assist rate north of 20.0 percent until Şengün this season. And while inviting the direct comparison is unfair, Şengün's per-36 numbers in his age-20 campaign stack up awfully well against Jokić's. Şengün is putting up 18.4 points, 10.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per 36 with a 59.9 true shooting percentage on 21.4 percent usage.
Jokić, at 20, produced 16.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists per 36 minutes with a 58.2 true shooting percentage on 19.9 percent usage.
If part of stardom is showmanship, Houston's young center also has that aspect covered. Perhaps he's a little too flashy at times, but who can stay mad at a guy who loves behind-the-back passes so much that he probably suffers withdrawal symptoms if he doesn't toss one every five minutes or so?
Şengün's lack of size and shooting stretch are obstacles, but he's overcome them effectively enough to rate as Houston's best player this season by EPM, RAPTOR and RPM. If he continues to develop as an offensive fulcrum while holding up on defense, Şengün will establish himself as a top-tier playmaker and give the Rockets a chance to climb from the Western Conference's lower rungs.
Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies
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A 20-year-old pass-obsessed center gives way to a 24-year-old sniper with a blossoming off-the-dribble game. The pivot from Şengün to Desmond Bane highlights the sheer breadth of options when it comes to picking out stars.
Bane probably would have disqualified himself by making the 2023 All-Star Game if he'd been healthy, but we're glad to use the technicality of his award-free status to praise him here.
Without exaggeration, Bane is among the very best shooters in the league. His 42.6 percent hit rate over the last three seasons is far and away the highest of any player with at least 1,000 long-range tries in that span. Stephen Curry is tied for second in accuracy, way down at 40.8 percent (granted, with 2,120 attempts).
With the shooting such a clear high-end skill, Bane could have leveled off and become a valuable specialist. Instead, he's adding to his game and becoming one of the best two-way wings in the league. His rate of assisted field goals has dropped in every year of his career, an increase in self-sufficiency that also shows up in his growth as a pick-and-roll ball-handler.
This year, the Memphis Grizzlies are featuring him in that role 3.6 times per game, and Bane is producing .94 points per possession. In 2021-22, those numbers were just 2.4 and .77, respectively.
Ditch the more granular stats in favor of the basics, and Bane's upward trajectory is no less obvious. He's posting career highs with 21.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 0.9 steals per game, all while getting to the foul line more often than ever and setting a personal best with a 60.4 true shooting percentage.
On defense, Bane overcomes a lack of wingspan with elite strength and quick feet. He doesn't have to rely on reach when he can stay in front of his matchups and nudge drivers off their lines with his bulk.
Yes, Bane is considerably older than everyone else we've covered. But he's made such significant leaps across his three seasons that it'd be a mistake to assume he's done getting better. And again, if he'd managed to play more than 35 games prior to the All-Star break, Bane would likely have made the West team and removed himself from this discussion.
At worst, he's already an elite three-and-D second option. At best, Bane's game will continue to include more self-creation and facilitation, which could make him something even greater than that.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Dunks & Threes and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through March 27. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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