March Madness 2023: Top Storylines and Expert Picks for Sunday's Men's Bracket
Florida Atlantic and UConn punched their tickets to the Final Four on Saturday, now San Diego State, Creighton, Miami and Texas will hope to do the same Sunday.
A wild and unpredictable tournament has led us to this point. This is the first time since the beginning of seeding in 1979 that a No. 1 seed hasn't made it to the Elite Eight. Now Texas is the only hope for the No. 2 seeds to have a seat at the Final Four table.
It's safe to say the Elite Eight field isn't what anyone thought it was going to be. Sunday's schedule is an embodiment of how diverse this field has been.
Both San Diego State and Creighton are playing in the Elite Eight for the first time in school history. Miami is in the Elite Eight for the second year in a row but has never been to the Final Four, and Texas is making its first appearance since 2008.
Sunday's games will see the creation of a unique Final Four. Let's dig into the schedule, top storylines and expert predictions.
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South Region: No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 5 San Diego State
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Start Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Can Creighton Adapt on Offense Again?
The most impressive aspect of Creighton's run thus far has been just how versatile they can be on offense. The Bluejays have been offensive chameleons through three games. Their least efficient performance came against North Carolina State where they still scored 104.2 points per 100 possessions, per Bart Torvik.
In that game, the offense featured 7'1" center Ryan Kalkbrenner. He went 11-of-14 from the field and dominated in the paint to the tune of 30 points. Creighton was 3-of-20 from three-point range.
Since then, they've scored at a rate of 127.2 and 125.5 points per 100 possessions. Their efficiency was anchored by Ryan Nembhard's 30 points and an 11-of-24 shooting night from distance against Baylor. Nembhard only had nine against Princeton, but Kalkbrenner (22 points), Baylor Scheierman (21) and Trey Alexander (19) all had big games.
San Diego State got here by playing elite defense. Whether Creighton can find a recipe for success and execute it is going to be the driving storyline for them.
Can Matt Bradley Bounce Back?
San Diego State's defense is a big reason why they are here. The Aztecs can flat-out defend, and that was evidenced by limiting Alabama to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions in their Sweet 16 matchup, per Bart Torvik.
It was an impressive defensive performance that showcased San Diego State's strengths.
As noted above, Creighton is a bit of a unique offensive challenge because of how versatile they are. So even though San Diego State's defense is to be respected, they need to be able to score.
The only concerning thing from San Diego State's win over Alabama was Matt Bradley. He leads the team in scoring but was limited to just nine points against the Tide on two-of-nine shooting from the field.
Bradley has to show up on that end of the floor to keep up with Creighton's offense.
Midwest Region: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 2 Texas
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Start Time: 5:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Can Miami Continue Offensive Onslaught?
The Miami Hurricanes were held to just 63 points and 90.9 points per 100 possessions, per Bart Torvik, against Drake in the first round. So you'd be excused for not seeing their 89 points against Houston and their top-ranked defense coming.
Houston ranked fifth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency on the year. That defense was supposed to carry them to the Final Four and beyond.
Instead, they became the second team to be eviscerated by Miami's offense. The Hurricanes have Nijel Pack and Isaiah Wong pacing a red-hot offense. The two combined for 46 points against the Cougars.
They will need to continue their high-scoring ways against Texas. The Longhorns are 10th in KenPom's offensive efficiency but also rank 15th defensively. They can lock up anyone on any given night and have the offensive firepower to force the Hurricanes to keep up.
Will Dylan Disu's Injury End Texas' Run?
Dylan Disu has been a key contributor for much of Texas' run in the tournament. The forward averaged 22.5 points and 10 rebounds in the round of 64 and round of 32 games.
That came to an end in the Sweet 16 when he was limited to just two minutes with a foot injury. Disu suffered the injury in warm-ups before the Penn State game, per Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports.
He was able to play through it against the Nittany Lions but not on Friday against Xavier. It didn't matter against the Musketeers. Texas won comfortably.
Getting by without Disu could be more challenging against the Hurricanes. Norchad Omier has been dominant on the boards for the Hurricanes. He has 44 boards in three contests.
With a thinner frontcourt, Omier could have an even bigger impact on the game. It's a storyline worth noting for a Texas team with title aspirations.
Expert Picks
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San Diego State vs. Creighton
Creighton holds a slight edge in the expert predictions from The Athletic. Their five-expert panel featured three picks for the Bluejays with Austin Mock and Brendan Marks choosing the Aztecs to continue their run.
CBS Sports has a similar division of picks. Only one of their five-panel members—bracketologist Jerry Palm—is rolling with San Diego State.
In the battle of Creighton's diverse offense and the Aztecs' hot defense, it would appear that most experts believe in the Bluejays.
Miami vs. Texas
The experts from The Athletic are unanimous in their support of the Longhorns. They are the highest remaining seed and have played like it. Even with Disu's injury Texas has the depth to deal with his potential absence.
The crew of experts at CBS Sports is feeling bolder about Miami's chances. Chip Patterson and David Cobb are feeling a Hurricanes upset brewing.
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