Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: B/R Expert Predictions for Sweet 16
Would you believe that as far as the summation of seeds in the Sweet 16 is concerned, the 2023 men's NCAA tournament has been more sedated than usual?
2019 was about as chalky as it gets with a seed total of 49. Compared to that, the current total of 78 looks astronomical. However, seven of the previous 12 tournaments produced Sweet 16 seed totals of 79 or greater. Both 2018 and 2022 checked in at 85. 2021 set an all-time record of 94.
But with two No. 1 and two No. 2 seeds already out of the picture, what's the next step in this dance?
We're glad you asked, because we have predictions for the Sweet 16 games to be played Thursday and Friday night.
We'll save you the trouble of tracking down our success rate in the tournament by simply noting that, no, none of us had Princeton or Fairleigh Dickinson winning in the first round. We also each had Duke, Kansas and Marquette winning in the second round, so we're not exactly batting a thousand here.
Moreover, whether you bet on or against everything that I suggested in the first two rounds, here's hoping you enjoyed four days of coin flips, as I went 24-24 in those games and need to put in some serious work down the stretch to recoup the money lost to the vig.
We will not be deterred, though.
For each of the eight Sweet 16 games, we'll sum up what it would take for each team to win before also offering a spot where you might consider placing a wager.
Games are presented in chronological order.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
1 of 8
Matchup: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 6:30 p.m. ET (TBS) Louisville
One-Sentence Synopsis: No Mountain West Conference team has ever made the Elite Eight, but San Diego State will try to end that drought when it takes on arguably the best team left in the tournament.
Alabama Wins If: San Diego State's usual offense shows up. The Aztecs got up to 75 points in the second-round win over Furman, but they entered that one on a streak of six straight games scoring 67 points or fewer. While Alabama did have losses by scores of 68-59 and 67-61 late in the season, it's quite unlikely that 67 points will be enough to outscore this Crimson Tide offense. And we're talking about an Alabama team that leads the nation in defensive effective field-goal percentage, so San Diego State will need to be even better than usual just to get to 67.
San Diego State Wins If: Its three-point defense locks in. For the year, opponents are shooting 28.8 percent from distance against the Aztecs. Their past five foes have shot a combined 25-of-110 (22.7 percent) from downtown, and it's almost inevitable that Alabama—by far the most three-point dependent team left in the field—will be launching triples. If the Crimson Tide go something like 7-of-32 on threes, the Aztecs will be in business.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Alabama -7.5. In each of the past 14 NCAA tournaments, there have been at least two Sweet 16 games (usually more than two) decided by double digits, and Alabama has won 23 games by double digits this season, including each of its past five. This easily could be a repeat of Alabama's 73-51 second-round win over Maryland.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Alabama
Kerry Miller: Alabama
Joel Reuter: Alabama
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
2 of 8
Matchup: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 5 Miami (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 7:15 p.m. ET (CBS) Kansas City
One-Sentence Synopsis: One year after leading Miami to its first ever Elite Eight, Jim Larranaga is looking to knock out an excellent Houston team to get the Hurricanes to another regional final.
Houston Wins If: It takes advantage of the nation's 108th-ranked defense. Of the 17 most efficient defenses in the country, 10 are still standing in the Sweet 16. But Miami is very much not part of that club. The 'Canes have held their own thus far in the dance, but they also allowed at least 85 points in four of their final eight games heading into Selection Sunday, including games against lowly Florida State and Louisville. It's not like Houston needs 85 points to win, either, as the Cougars are 29-0 when scoring at least 66 points.
Miami Wins If: The scoring spurts continue. The Hurricanes ended the Drake game on a 16-1 run and delivered the knockout punch to Indiana with a 16-2 run. As we've been saying for at least a month now, Houston's Achilles' heel is sporadically forgetting how to score. All signs point to a Houston win, but there could be a 5-10 minute stretch in which Miami flips this game on its head with a big run.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Over 138. The potential for a Houston scoring drought is a bit nerve-wracking, but these are two highly efficient offense, both of which should generate a lot of second-chance opportunities when they do miss shots. It won't be a high-octane game, but getting to 140 points shouldn't be a problem.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Miami
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Houston
No. 6 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 15 Princeton Tigers
3 of 8
Matchup: No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton (South Regional)
Details: Friday at 9 p.m. ET (TBS) Louisville
One-Sentence Synopsis: There has been a lot of physical basketball thus far in the tournament, but this should be a more free-flowing game between two of the least turnover-forcing defenses in the country.
Creighton Wins If: Princeton's inexplicable run against great offenses comes to an end. The Tigers entered the dance ranked 137th in adjusted defensive efficiency before shutting down the top-10 offenses of Arizona and Missouri. That can't possibly keep happening, though, right? A Creighton offense with five double-digit scorers certainly should find a way to put up points against a Princeton defense that rarely generates steals.
Princeton Wins If: It rebounds like it did against Missouri. Princeton not only finished plus-14 on the glass, but it scored 19 second-chance points on 16 offensive rebounds. That type of thing almost never happens against Creighton, which allows just 8.8 offensive rebounds per game. But we're talking about a No. 15 seed in the Sweet 16 here. Season averages stopped mattering a while ago.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Princeton +10. A second successive year with a No. 15 seed in the Elite Eight is unlikely. But Princeton doesn't get blown out. There were only two games all season in which the Tigers lost by more than seven points, one of which was decided by 10 in overtime. They'll keep it close.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Creighton
Kerry Miller: Creighton
Joel Reuter: Creighton
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No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 3 Xavier Musketeers
4 of 8
Matchup: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 3 Xavier (Midwest Regional)
Details: Friday at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS) Kansas City
One-Sentence Synopsis: It'll be something of a bragging-rights game for UTEP when former Miners head coach, Rodney Terry, goes up against his former star, Souley Boum.
Texas Wins If: The defense continues to dominate. Texas has pretty well shut down its past six opponents, holding them to 58.2 points per game. And while Xavier does have a potent offense, it was held to 68 points or fewer in each of its past five losses. The X-Men also had a cumulative turnover margin of minus-29 in their past four losses, and winning that battle might be Texas' biggest strength.
Xavier Wins If: Souley Boum puts on a show. Xavier's star averages 16.5 points and 4.3 assists per game, and when he's even average, the Musketeers are flawless. They're 15-0 when he puts up at least 16 points and three assists, and he's capable of much more. In fact, he has had seven games with at least 20 points and six assists, with Xavier scoring at least 82 points in each of those contests.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Under 148.5. Given how great Texas' defense has been over the past three weeks, it's kind of insulting that this is the Sweet 16 game with the highest total.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Xavier
Kerry Miller: Texas
Joel Reuter: Xavier
No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
5 of 8
Matchup: No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Michigan State (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 6:30 p.m. ET (TBS), New York City
One-Sentence Synopsis: First-year head coach Jerome Tang looks to keep Tom Izzo from taking another step toward the ninth Final Four of his career.
Kansas State Wins If: It owns the turnover battle. Michigan State has gotten more steals than usual thus far in the tournament, but if either side is going to force a ton of turnovers, it's most likely going to be Kansas State benefitting from a sloppy, physical game. The Wildcats had 20 steals between the first two rounds, and NYC-native Markquis Nowell will be looking to pick even more pockets in Madison Square Garden.
Michigan State Wins If: Three-point buckets are the story of the game. The Spartans struggled from distance in the first two rounds, but perimeter offense is usually one of their biggest strengths. Conversely, Kansas State has shot 30.2 percent from distance over its past 14 games and has clocked in below 27 percent in each of the past three.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Kansas State +2. The difference in coaching and the past two decades at the respective programs is understandably why Michigan State is favored, but Kansas State has been the better team over the course of this season. If Kentucky couldn't shut down Nowell, it's hard to see Michigan State's backcourt pulling it off.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Michigan State
Kerry Miller: Kansas State
Joel Reuter: Kansas State
No. 4 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks
6 of 8
Matchup: No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 8 Arkansas (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 7:15 p.m. ET (CBS) Las Vegas
One-Sentence Synopsis: Back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2014, Connecticut has to try to keep Arkansas from reaching the Elite Eight for what would be the third consecutive year.
Connecticut Wins If: It limits turnovers and demoralizes the Hogs with second-chance buckets. Arkansas' Makhi Mitchell has done a fine job of defending the paint, but he's going to have a mighty difficult time stifling Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, who lead one of the best offensive rebounding units in the nation. And it's not like Arkansas will be raining threes to make up for all those UConn put-back buckets, as the Razorbacks don't make many and the Huskies thrive at preventing them.
Arkansas Wins If: It draws a bunch of fouls and dominates the turnover battle. Arkansas does an excellent job of both getting to the free-throw line and generating steals, and committing turnovers and fouls are easily UConn's two biggest weaknesses. Could be a perfect storm of physicality in which Anthony Black, Devo Davis and Co. pull off yet another substantial upset.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Over 139.5. Both defenses are solid, but do you really see these offenses playing to a 71-68 type of game? UCLA-Gonzaga is the main event in Las Vegas, but this should be one heck of an undercard fight. A back-and-forth affair in the upper 70s seems more likely than a rock fight.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Connecticut
Kerry Miller: Arkansas
Joel Reuter: Connecticut
No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
7 of 8
Matchup: No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic (East Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9 p.m. ET (TBS) New York City
One-Sentence Synopsis: While Rick Barnes hasn't been to an Elite Eight since 2008, Florida Atlantic had never won a tournament game before Friday, and someone has to win this rock fight.
Tennessee Wins If: It simply overpowers Florida Atlantic the way it did Duke in the second round. Florida Atlantic has a deep rotation, but it's not exactly a roster full of bruisers. The Owls did hold their own against a physical Memphis team in the first round, but facing Tennessee is going to be even more of a meat grinder.
Florida Atlantic Wins If: Shooting percentages play to form. The respective strengths of schedule aren't comparable in the slightest. There's no ignoring that elephant in the data. However, in terms of effective field-goal percentage, FAU's offense, FAU's defense and Tennessee's defense all rank in the top 25 while Tennessee's offense ranks 196th. Really, the only thing Tennessee has done well on offense this season is grab rebounds, and the Owls are solid on the defensive glass. Maybe Tennessee throws up a bunch of bricks and this Cinderella's dance continues for another round.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Florida Atlantic +5. The Owls might not win the game, but they're good enough and deep enough to keep this one interesting. Really, though, it's the nauseating thought of ever laying five points on Tennessee's offense that makes FAU +5 the play.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Tennessee
Kerry Miller: Florida Atlantic
Joel Reuter: Tennessee
No. 2 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs
8 of 8
Matchup: No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga (West Regional)
Details: Thursday at 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS) Las Vegas
One-Sentence Synopsis: If for some reason you can only watch one Sweet 16 game, this unstoppable force/immovable object clash between Gonzaga's offense and UCLA's defense is the one to watch.
UCLA Wins If: There's still enough defense to slow down the Zags. Jaylen Clark is gone. Adem Bona (shoulder) and David Singleton (ankle) are both presumably operating at less than 100 percent. But if the nation's No. 2 rated defense can do its thing against the nation's No. 1 rated offense, the Bruins should win. Since the beginning of 2019-20, Gonzaga is 117-4 when scoring at least 71 points, but 3-8 when falling short of that mark, which includes its two exits from the NCAA tournament.
Gonzaga Wins If: It limits turnovers and gets the transition offense rolling. Point guard play has been a seasonlong question mark for Gonzaga, and UCLA can still rack up steals, even without Clark. But if the Zags keep the giveaways to a minimum and are able to somewhat routinely get buckets in that "seven seconds or less" approach to offense, UCLA could struggle to keep pace.
If I Had to Bet on Something...: Under 145.5. Between the three Gonzaga-Saint Mary's games, the average total was 140.3. UCLA's last four opponents have averaged 58.3 points. And in these "the tortoise vs. the hare" sorts of matchups, the tortoise is typically able to control the pace. Should be a great game, but not expecting a repeat of that 93-90 overtime classic from the 2021 Final Four.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: UCLA
Joel Reuter: Gonzaga
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