Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: Upset Meter for Every Sweet 16 Game
The 2023 men's NCAA tournament has not been short on upsets through two rounds, but the Sweet 16 is often where the rubber meets the road.
With only 16 teams left to compete for the national championship, the stage gets bigger, the lights get brighter and a few days off can disrupt the rhythm that led to early upsets.
The tournament's second weekend has no shortage of fun matchups. No. 15 seed Princeton will look to continue its magical run against Creighton. West Coast powers collide as UCLA and Gonzaga fight for an Elite Eight spot. An upstart Florida Atlantic team faces a Tennessee squad that just beat Duke.
We'll look at each matchup and identify how worried the higher-seeded team should be on the upset meter. Pulling off a stunner this far into the tournament is more difficult, but the powers left in the tournament aren't safe.
For simplicity, we'll use seeding to identify an upset. Many of the lines at DraftKings are close and could swing before tipoff, indicating how close some of these games are expected to be.
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Michigan State
1 of 8
6:30 p.m. ET, Thursday
Moneyline: Michigan State -130
The Case For
The Spartans are the small betting favorite. Oddsmakers like Tom Izzo's Spartans to continue their run after watching them take down No. 2 seed Marquette.
The Spartans put the clamps on the Golden Eagles, controlling the paint as Marquette shot just 9-of-25 from inside the arc. Shaka Smart's team only scored 60 points despite hitting 11 of 27 three-point attempts.
On offense, Tyson Walker has been playing his best basketball of the season. He has zero turnovers through two games and scored 23 points to pace Michigan State in the second-round win.
Izzo's team is playing hard and defying expectations. The Spartans' ability to get to the charity stripe (48 free-throw attempts in the first two games) has given them a consistent stream of offense. Kansas State was 291st in defensive free-throw rate, per Bart Torvik, so that should continue in the Sweet 16.
The Case Against
Jerome Tang doesn't have the long track record of NCAA tournament success that Izzo does, but he has done a nice job in his debut season. The Wildcats are coming off a win over Kentucky in which they were the underdog despite being the higher seed.
This has to feel like deja vu all over again for his squad.
Markquis Nowell made his presence known in that Kentucky game. The diminutive senior guard came up big with 27 points, nine assists and three steals. He was the game's best player and is the kind of guard who can spark a deep tournament run.
Kansas State has played with a lot of swagger. It won't be fazed taking on another traditional college basketball power after beating the other Wildcats in the second round.
Upset Meter: Moderate. This line is disrespectful to Kansas State. The Wildcats' resume is more complete, and they have the best player on the court. They should be the favorite.
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 8 Arkansas
2 of 8
7:15 p.m. ET, Thursday
Moneyline: UConn -175
The Case For
Confidence should be high for Arkansas after it picked off No. 1 seed Kansas. Truthfully, it is playing at the level that should have been expected with three NBA prospects in the lineup.
Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black are projected lottery picks, while Ricky Council IV should be getting looks from NBA teams.
Smith and Black haven't even played up to their potential through the first two rounds. Smith has just six points and was held scoreless in 16 minutes against Kansas. Black had 12 against Illinois but was also nowhere to be found on offense against Kansas with four points on 1-of-6 shooting.
This team still hasn't played its best game offensively.
Meanwhile, defense remains the Razorbacks' calling card. They rank 15th in KenPom.com defensive efficiency and created key stops against Kansas and Illinois.
The Case Against
The Huskies can play some defense too. UConn is just above Arkansas in KenPom defensive efficiency, ranking 14th. The difference is the Huskies pair it with an offense that ranks third in the country.
That balance has been evident in emphatic wins over Iona and Saint Mary's in the tournament. UConn held both teams to under 39 percent shooting while putting up 70 on Saint Mary's stingy defense and 87 on an outmatched Iona team.
Adama Sanogo is embracing his role as UConn's leader. He has scored 52 points and grabbed 21 rebounds through the first two rounds.
The Huskies have looked like a national title contender at different points of the season. They've made March one of those times and are playing great basketball.
Upset Meter: Low. Credit where it's due, as Arkansas has had a good run, but UConn looks like a Final Four team.
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic
3 of 8
9 p.m. ET, Thursday
Moneyline: Tennessee -240
The Case For
Some will say the Owls are lucky to be in the Sweet 16. They escaped with a 66-65 win over Memphis in the first round and got to play No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the second after the Knights upset Purdue in the round of 64.
That ignores the fact that Florida Atlantic ranks 22nd in KenPom's overall efficiency. The Owls were also 13th in NET and racked up a 6-3 record against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. Tennessee is 10-10 in such games.
The Owls have had fate on their side, but they are a good basketball team. They've taken good care of the basketball, only turning it over 16 times in two contests, and have crashed the offensive glass, snagging 33 offensive rebounds.
If they can continue that trend by playing clean and creating second-chance opportunities, they will hang with the Volunteers.
The Case Against
Tennessee is a defensive juggernaut. The Vols rank No. 1 in KenPom's defensive efficiency, and that was on full display against Duke.
They held the Blue Devils to 85.6 points per 100 possessions, per Bart Torvik. Three-point defense can be a volatile statistic, but Tennessee has found a way to consistently limit teams from beyond the arc, and Duke shot six-of-22 from three-point range.
They also did a great job of keeping Duke off the offensive glass. The Blue Devils were ninth in offensive rebounding percentage, according to Bart Torvik, but were limited to six offensive rebounds in the second-round matchup.
That's a key element to Florida Atlantic's success that Tennessee is suited to eliminate.
Tennessee's rebounding and defense make it a difficult team to upset.
Upset Meter: Low. Tennessee matches up too well for the Owls.
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No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga
4 of 8
9:45 p.m. ET, Thursday
Moneyline: UCLA -135
The Case For
Gonzaga is the best in the country in KenPom's offensive efficiency, and the Bulldogs have leaned into that in the tournament. They turned their game against TCU into an uptempo scorefest and came out on top 84-81 after overwhelming Grand Canyon 82-70 in the first round.
Drew Timme gives them a unique offensive weapon they can turn to when they need a bucket. He's been a key member of the team for three years, including the 2021 team that made it to the championship game.
Timme has scored 49 points in the first two rounds, and TCU had no answer for him down the stretch.
The Bruins are missing the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Jaylen Clark, who suffered a torn Achilles in the regular-season finale. They gave up 105.8 points per 100 possessions to Northwestern, per Bart Torvik, so the defense could be an issue against Gonzaga's high-powered offense.
The Case Against
UCLA is a No. 2 seed for a reason, and it hasn't done anything to show it isn't deserving of that distinction. The Bruins have been in full control of their first two games.
Their 68-63 win over Northwestern was more commanding than it looks. The Wildcats never led after the first minute of the game, although they tied it in the second half.
Tyger Campbell has been a great initiator on offense. He has dished out 19 assists in the first two games and had 12 free-throw attempts against Northwestern. He has only turned it over twice, giving UCLA a stabilizing presence on offense.
The Bruins have some offensive firepower of their own, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has carried the offensive burden as well. He has shot 57.6 percent in two games, scoring 41 points. He gives the Bruins an option who can go head-to-head with Timme.
Upset Meter: High. Gonzaga will force a high-scoring game, and it's hard to bet against Timme and the Bulldogs offense in that kind of contest.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State
5 of 8
6:30 p.m. ET, Friday
Moneyline: Alabama -340
The Case For
San Diego State faced a dangerous No. 12 seed in the College of Charleston and survived to crush a Furman team that upset No. 4 seed Virginia.
Just like in the Aztecs' regular season, San Diego State hasn't faced the best competition, but it has looked good in beating them. The Aztecs are especially good defensively, ranking fifth in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
That defense fed a strong offensive effort against Furman. They had four scorers in double digits, including a 16-point effort from Micah Parrish off the bench.
If the Aztecs' elite defense can translate against Alabama's talent, this game will be interesting.
The Case Against
No one will be impressed by the Aztecs' path in the tournament. San Diego State beat No. 12 seed Charleston and No. 13 Furman to get to this game.
Now they'll face one of the best teams in college basketball this season. What the Aztecs have done defensively is notable, but there's a difference between shutting down Charleston and Furman and holding a team like Alabama.
The Aztecs went into the tournament 5-5 against Quad 1 teams but 2-5 against teams in the top half of that quadrant. The Crimson Tide were 13-5 with a 5-4 mark against the top half. These two teams are not the same.
Alabama has lived up to its No. 1 seed billing with dominant wins over Texas A&M Corpus-Christi and Maryland. It's hard to find the vulnerability that San Diego State could exploit.
Upset Meter: Low. Neither San Diego State's easy road in the tournament nor its regular-season schedule has prepared it for this matchup. Expect the Tide to roll.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 5 Miami
6 of 8
7:15 p.m. ET, Friday
Moneyline: Houston -285
The Case For
The Miami Hurricanes have silenced a lot of doubters. They were a popular upset pick in the first round as 31 percent of ESPN brackets picked No. 12 seed Drake to upset them, and 59 percent of pickers took the Indiana Hoosiers to beat Miami in the round of 32.
Defense was a reason to doubt Jim Larrañaga's squad. They were 108th in KenPom's defensive efficiency, but they've buttoned things up in the tourney.
They held Drake to 56 points on 22-of-55 shooting and limited star guard Tucker DeVries to 1-of-13 shooting. The performance against Indiana was arguably more impressive. Trayce Jackson-Davis got his numbers, but they forced Jalen Hood-Schifino into 22 shots to get his 19 points. Shooters not named Jackson-Davis shot just 35.9 percent.
Pair their newly found defensive prowess with Isaiah Wong's scoring ability and the Hurricanes have something to offer Houston. Wong put up 27 points while Jordan Miller chipped in 19 on the way to 85 points against the Hoosiers.
The Case Against
Auburn had a 10-point lead against Houston at halftime of their second-round game. Then Houston showed why it is a No. 1 seed in this tournament.
The Cougars found their rhythm in the second half, outscoring the Tigers 50-23 and claiming a dominant 81-64 win. Even if Miami jumps out to an early lead or finds success in the first half, Kelvin Sampson's team is prepared to play for 40 minutes.
Any questions regarding Marcus Sasser's form were answered Saturday. The star guard has been dealing with a groin injury that held him out of the AAC championship game and part of the first-round game against Northern Kentucky.
However, he looked like his fully effective self with 22 points against Auburn. That should have Houston feeling confident and healthy. That spells trouble for anyone looking to upset this Cougars team.
Upset Meter: Moderate. Miami has been doubted every step of the way and keeps answering the bell. Still, Houston is a team with Final Four aspirations, and things started to click in the second half against Auburn.
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton
7 of 8
9 p.m. ET, Friday
Moneyline: Creighton -500
The Case For
The case for Princeton begins with the fact that the Tigers didn't just beat Missouri. They throttled them. Mitch Henderson's team slow-cooked Missouri in a crock pot of deliberate pace and solid offensive efficiency. They scored at a rate of 124.4 points per 100 possessions, per Bart Torvik, and built up their lead over time.
The most impressive thing is that Princeton didn't pull off the upsets of No. 2 seed Arizona or No. 7 seed Missouri because it was on a ridiculous hot streak shooting the ball.
The Tigers won with defense against Arizona, holding the No. 2 seed to 55 points on 42.1 percent shooting and 18.8 percent shooting from three.
Their resume isn't great, and they were a 15th seed for a reason. But if you look at how they've played in the tournament, they have the offense and defense to hang with a Creighton team that lost in the Big East tournament to Xavier by 22 points.
The Case Against
We aren't in the Big East Tournament anymore. The Bluejays have been playing well in their own right. They got to this spot with a strong 85-76 win over No. 3 seed Baylor.
Creighton is diverse offensively. In the second round, it won by shooting 11-of-24 from distance and relying on guard Ryan Nembhard, who scored 30 points and got to the free-throw line for 10 attempts.
Against NC State, the Bluejays got it done by doing their work inside the three-point line. They connected on just three of their 20 three-point attempts, but 7'1" Ryan Kalkbrenner had 31 points on 11-of-14 shooting and just one three.
They pair that offensive versatility with a defense that is 13th nationally in KenPom's rankings. That's markedly better than Arizona (40th) or Missouri (176th). The Tigers will find out if they can score against an elite defense.
Upset Meter: Low. The magic is about to run out for a special Princeton team.
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 3 Xavier
8 of 8
9:45 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Texas -190
The Case For
Xavier came into the tournament as one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Not only were the Musketeers seventh in KenPom's offensive efficiency, but they also did it by sharing the rock. They rank sixth in assist rate, per Bart Torvik.
That ability to share the ball and create open shots has paid off. They had 22 assists to Pittsburgh's 11 in the round of 32 and dished out 16 against Kennesaw State to the Owls' 12.
The Longhorns defense aims to create havoc and turnovers, but Xavier has taken care of the ball. The Musketeers had a turnover rate of just 10.3 percent against Pitt and 13.9 against Kennesaw State, per Torvik.
Xavier hasn't been lights out from three, shooting 10-of-36 in two tournament games, but it is a good shooting team. If the Musketeers can have some positive regression to the mean (38.9 percent), they could have the Longhorns on the ropes.
The Case Against
Texas is arguably the hottest team in the NCAA tournament. The Longhorns cruised through the Big 12 tournament, punctuated by a 20-point win over Kansas.
Their second-round game against Penn State was close. But the Nittany Lions were among the hottest teams going into the tournament, rallying to the Big Ten championship game as a No. 10 seed and then taking out a Texas A&M team in the first round that was the SEC runner-up.
The Longhorns defense forced Jalen Pickett into seven turnovers to just one assist while limiting Penn State to 8-of-28 shooting from three-point range. Dylan Disu took over on offense with 28 points on 14-of-20 shooting.
This Texas team is the real deal on both ends of the floor. Not many teams could survive a 1-of-13 shooting night from beyond the arc. Texas did that against Penn State and has one of the most balanced analytic profiles, ranking 15th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense on KenPom.
Upset Meter: Moderate. The game might come down to whether Xavier can get hot from three, which inches this one toward toss-up range.
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