NCAA Tournament 2023: Ranking Top Seeds Most Likely to Fall in Sweet 16
The annual tradition of having a busted bracket can be simply unavoidable by the time the Sweet 16 is over.
Every year, a handful of top-seeded programs lose immediately. During the 2023 men's NCAA tournament, for example, that included Purdue, Arizona and Virginia in the opening round. Kansas followed suit in the second round, and the Sweet 16 typically includes losses from a couple more.
Sometimes, those defeats are unsurprising.
Heading into the Sweet 16, nine top-four seeds remain in the Big Dance. Within that group, we've identified the five programs that are the better seed and appear to have the toughest matchups to begin the second weekend.
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5. Houston Cougars (1)
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Panic is too strong a word. For multiple reasons, though, it's fair to have increased concern about Houston.
First, the injuries. Marcus Sasser (groin) and Jamal Shead (knee), a pair of outstanding defenders, are limited to some degree. Neither one has missed a game, and several days of treatment, in theory, will help. But it's an underlying storyline that is worth monitoring.
Secondly, the Cougars have basically played one great half during the NCAA tournament so far. They had a poor showing in a closer-than-expected win over Northern Kentucky in the first round, and Auburn jumped out to a 10-point halftime lead.
Houston dominated the Tigers after the break, particularly on defense, and offered a clear reminder of its peak performance.
Miami, though, has a superb backcourt with Isaiah Wong, Nigel Pack and versatile wing Jordan Miller, and Norchad Omier is hyper-athletic big who can match Jarace Walker.
Houston might not be able to overcame a bad half against the ACC regular-season champions.
4. UCLA Bruins (2)
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UCLA opened the Big Dance with a comfortable win against UNC Asheville, securing victory by a 33-point margin. The second round featured a much tighter game and a five-point triumph over Northwestern.
But as both opponents shot 37.3 percent, UCLA hit 54.0 and 50.0 percent of its shots, respectively. Given that the Bruins aren't exactly known for efficient offense, it feels likely that regression is coming.
And the competition level is only about to rise.
Gonzaga boasts All-American forward Drew Timme, rising NBA prospect Julian Strawther and a trio of three-point weapons. Few teams can force UCLA into a high-scoring game, but the Zags definitely are one. Gonzaga has the nation's top effective field-goal percentage.
UCLA's David Singleton (ankle) is not expected to miss the game, but his status will be watched closely this week. UCLA is already without star defender Jaylen Clark (Achilles).
3. Tennessee Volunteers (4)
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There is something just so Missouri about Florida Atlantic, and that's probably not a comforting thought for Tennessee.
Missouri's top six rotational players who were healthy in March each averaged 1.6 to 2.9 assists this season, and three buried 39.9-plus percent of their perimeter looks. While the offense was efficient on two-pointers, Missouri generally leaned on long-distance shots.
The Vols lost to Missouri twice.
FAU, meanwhile, has seven players with 1.4 to 2.5 assists per game. Four of them connect on threes at a 38.8 clip or better, and a fifth sports a quality 36.4 mark at a higher volume. Florida Atlantic is also excellent inside the arc, although the offense tends to rely on threes.
Tennessee is the stronger team, but FAU's similarities to the Vols' seasonlong thorn are striking.
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2. Texas Longhorns (2)
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Look, it's not shocking to say a 2-seed might lose against a 3-seed. Both programs, naturally, are well-respected.
Texas is approaching another tough matchup, though.
Even without star Zach Freemantle, Xavier is a dangerous team. After an unimpressive first-round victory over Kennesaw State, the Musketeers responded with an 84-73 win against Pitt. All five starters hit double figures, and Desmond Claude added 11 points off the bench.
Most importantly, it's an unselfish group. Xavier tallied 22 assists on 30 made shots, backing up its top-10 assist rate nationally. That kind of ball movement is pivotal to limit the number of shots Texas will contest.
Again, neither result would be surprising. Texas certainly knows it's about to face its greatest test yet.
1. Kansas State Wildcats (3)
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Kansas State is writing a fantastic story, reaching the Sweet 16 for the third time in the past 40 seasons. Star guard Markquis Nowell and forward Keyontae Johnson—who, you might recall, collapsed during a game while playing with Florida a few years ago—have propelled this run.
However, the coach who will be on the opposite sideline is nicknamed Mr. March. That about explains it, right?
Tom Izzo has Michigan State in the second weekend for the 15th time in his 28-year tenure. Most impressively, it's the program's third trip to the Sweet 16 as a No. 7 seed under Izzo.
Sunday, the Spartans took down Marquette, one of the nation's most efficient offensive and disruptive defensive teams. MSU hit only two threes compared to Marquette's 11 yet still ripped off a 69-60 win.
Kansas State is plenty talented.
But if MSU can beat that Marquette team so soundly, Mr. March is undoubtedly capable of cooking up another upset.
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