NCAA Men's Tournament 2023: B/R Expert Predictions for the 2nd Round
Fairleigh Dickinson and Princeton pulled off massive first-round upsets of Purdue and Arizona, offering a great reminder that only a fool thinks they can correctly predict every game of the 2023 NCAA men's tournament.
But fools we be, as Bleacher Report's college basketball experts are back for another round of making predictions for every game.
For each of the 16 Saturday and Sunday contests, we'll sum up what it would take for each team to win before also offering up how you might consider placing a wager. (Lines from DraftKings and updated at 1 a.m. ET Saturday.)
Lastly, our experts will each provide their prediction about which team will win.
Watch March Madness Live to stream every tournament game through the Final Four.
No. 3 Xavier Musketeers vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers
1 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh (Midwest Regional)
Details: Sunday at 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Greensboro
One-Sentence Synopsis: Two programs separated by about 300 miles will square off for the first time since the second round of the 2010 NCAA tournament.
Xavier Wins If: The strong finish against Kennesaw State was the beginning of a return to normalcy for this offense. The Musketeers couldn't buy a bucket in the Big East championship against Marquette and struggled to get rolling against the Owls, but they found their mojo down the stretch and could be gearing up for a big game against Pitt. The X-Men are 26-2 when scoring at least 73 points this season.
Pittsburgh Wins If: Xavier shoots as poorly as Iowa State did. Goodness gracious was that a hideous display of offense against what had been a mediocre-at-best defense. But after holding Mississippi State to 59 in the First Four and Iowa State to 41 in the first round, the Panthers will face a team that can actually run offense. Maybe the momentum of the past two games will carry them through to a great defensive performance, though.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Xavier -5. Pitt is on a roll, and we've seen more than a few First Four teams reach the Sweet 16 since the field expanded to 68 in 2011. But play this game two weeks ago, and wouldn't you expect Xavier to win by at least three possessions?
Predictions
David Kenyon: Pittsburgh
Kerry Miller: Xavier
Joel Reuter: Xavier
No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
2 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 6 Kentucky (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Greensboro
One-Sentence Synopsis: Strangely enough, Kansas State and Kentucky were also in the region when UMBC beat Virginia in 2018, and Kentucky sure would love to get revenge on Kansas State for that previous upset.
Kansas State Wins If: It finds a way to neutralize Oscar Tshiebwe. The Kansas State Wildcats have a trio of solid big men in Nae'Qwan Tomlin, Abayomi Iyiola and David N'Guessan, but defensive rebounding and defending the paint has been a struggle. And after Tshiebwe grabbed 25 rebounds in a win over Providence, Kansas State's big men have their work cut out for them.
Kentucky Wins If: Cason Wallace is more disruptive than Markquis Nowell on defense. As a whole, Kentucky doesn't force many turnovers. However, Wallace is an excellent perimeter defender, averaging two steals per game, and Kansas State definitely has turnover issues, allowing 7.5 steals per game. If Wallace has more steals and Nowell has more turnovers, Kentucky should win.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Kentucky -1. Two evenly matched teams. This will probably close as a pick'em. But Kentucky has been the better squad over the past two-plus months and should find a way to win.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kentucky
Kerry Miller: Kentucky
Joel Reuter: Kansas State
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 7 Michigan State Spartans
3 of 16
Matchup: No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 7 Michigan State (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS), Columbus
One-Sentence Synopsis: Shaka Smart's team finally won a tournament game for the first time since 2013, but to reach the Sweet 16, Marquette needs to survive the magic of January, February, Izzo.
Marquette Wins If: It pounds the paint on offense. The Golden Eagles sometimes fall too in love with the deep ball, but they have a top-notch interior offense. One that rarely commits turnovers against any defense, and one that shouldn't have any problem avoiding turnovers against a defense that doesn't force many of them. Marquette could just two-point the Spartans into oblivion.
Michigan State Wins If: It takes advantage of Marquette's perimeter defense. Michigan State is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, and in addition to being a below-average rebounding team, Marquette allows opponents to hit threes at a high clip. The Spartans didn't rely on the deep ball in their opener against USC (5-of-14), but they're going to need more than that to keep pace with the Golden Eagles.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 141.5. Marquette averages just under 80 points per game, and the Michigan State defense isn't exactly elite. If we assume the four-point spread is right, even a 73-69 game would satisfy the over.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Marquette
Kerry Miller: Marquette
Joel Reuter: Marquette
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
No. 4 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels
4 of 16
Matchup: No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's (West Regional)
Details: Sunday at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT), Albany
One-Sentence Synopsis: What an outrageously good second-round game, pitting the teams rated by KenPom as the fourth-best (UConn) and 12th-best (Saint Mary's) in the nation against one another.
Connecticut Wins If: Doesn't get frustrated with Saint Mary's pace of play and lets its talent reign supreme. The Gaels are quite good. But the Huskies are better. And if they're getting up good shots and staying engaged throughout what will be long defensive possessions, they should win. However, if the Gaels' excellent defensive rebounding limits second-chance opportunities and the oftentimes handsy Huskies defense gets a little too aggressive on that end, it could play into the underdogs' hands.
Saint Mary's Wins If: It flusters the Connecticut offense. The Huskies like to swing the ball around before getting up a shot, and they lead the nation in offensive rebounding. But opponents of Saint Mary's record assists at one of the lowest rates in the nation, and the Gaels are sensational on the defensive glass. Basically every UConn possession will be a major battle of strengths.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Connecticut -3.5. If Baylor-Creighton isn't the best game of the second round, this one is. But here's a fun fact: In all 26 of its victories, Connecticut won by at least six points. If you like the Huskies, might as well pick them to cover, too.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Connecticut
Kerry Miller: Connecticut
Joel Reuter: Connecticut
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 6 Creighton Bluejays
5 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 6 Creighton (South Regional)
Details: Sunday at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: It's Baylor Scheierman and Co. taking on the Baylor Bears for the title of top remaining seed in the bottom half of the South, as Creighton seeks revenge against the team that emphatically ended Doug McDermott's college career nine years ago.
Baylor Wins If: The three guards catch fire. Creighton does a great job of denying three-point attempts, but Baylor's trio of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer is going to get up shots. They average about 20 combined three-point attempts per game. And when they're hot, anything is possible.
Creighton Wins If: Ryan Kalkbrenner puts on another show. Creighton's 7'1" center leads the nation in effective field-goal percentage after going for 31 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in a first-round win over NC State. And frontcourt defense has been Baylor's Achilles' heel all season. Creighton is a solid three-point shooting team, but relentlessly feeding the big man is its clearest path to victory.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Over 146.5. There were some serious rock fights in the first round of the tournament, but this game has "high-scoring affair" written all over it. It also opened as a pick'em, so overtime—the eternal friend of the over bettor—is a distinct possibility.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Creighton
Kerry Miller: Creighton
Joel Reuter: Baylor
No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
6 of 16
Matchup: No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson (East Regional)
Details: Sunday at 7:45 p.m. ET (truTV), Columbus
One-Sentence Synopsis: So, about that awesome Purdue-Memphis game that we all circled when the brackets were announced...
Florida Atlantic Wins If: Its shots are falling at all. There was a long stretch against Memphis when FAU could not buy a bucket. But, normally, this is an efficient offense. And, normally, the FDU defense ranks among the worst in the nation. Florida Atlantic should cruise to victory, but maybe FDU's full-court press will shock the world again.
Fairleigh Dickinson Wins If: Lightning strikes twice. It's highly unlikely to happen. The Knights will need to somehow get a bunch of turnovers against a team that only committed nine in a win over a very good Memphis defense. And they'll once again need to deal with a drastic size disadvantage, especially against the 7'1" Vladislav Goldin. But if you want to be the one to tell this team that it's not going to happen, be our guest.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Florida Atlantic -12.5. KenPom has FAU projected to win by 19, so this line seems ridiculous.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Florida Atlantic
Kerry Miller: Florida Atlantic
Joel Reuter: Florida Atlantic
No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 5 Miami Hurricanes
7 of 16
Matchup: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Miami (Midwest Regional)
Details: Sunday at 8:40 p.m. ET (TNT), Albany
One-Sentence Synopsis: After surviving popular first-round upset picks, the Hoosiers and Hurricanes square off with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.
Indiana Wins If: Someone other than Trayce Jackson-Davis shows up again. This will be Indiana's blueprint to victory for as long as it lasts in the dance. Race Thompson was spectacular against Kent State with 10 early points en route to 20 and nine rebounds. Whether it's him, Jalen Hood-Schifino or someone else, the Hoosiers simply need a Robin to their Batman to have a great shot against any foe.
Miami Wins If: It finds a way to neutralize Jackson-Davis. The Hurricanes defense had not been great for most of this season, but it brought the full-court press late against Drake and finished on a 16-1 run. Could we see more of the same against turnover-prone Indiana as Miami hopes to simply keep TJD from ever getting comfortable in the half-court offense?
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 148. This certainly could be a high-scoring affair given Miami's combination of great offense and not-great defense, but it doesn't feel much like an 80-78 game unless it is played at a breakneck pace.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Miami
Kerry Miller: Indiana
Joel Reuter: Indiana
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs
8 of 16
Matchup: No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 6 TCU (West Regional)
Details: Sunday at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS), Denver
One-Sentence Synopsis: Gonzaga takes a great offense and mediocre defense up against TCU's strong defense and poor-shooting offense in an intriguing clash of strengths and weaknesses.
Gonzaga Wins If: Drew Timme and Co. own the short-handed TCU frontcourt. JaKobe Coles was the late hero off the bench for the Horned Frogs, but are he, Xavier Cork and Emanuel Miller going to be able to stifle Gonzaga's elite interior offense? If not, it's not like TCU—which ranks in the bottom 10 percent nationally in both three-point percentage and three-point rate—is going to be in position to trade twos for threes.
TCU Wins If: Mike Miles Jr. and Co. own a backcourt that has been a question mark since November. The Zags look like they do a great job of avoiding turnovers, but really, they just played in a WCC wherein no one forces many. Point guard is a concern for Gonzaga, and TCU has an aggressive, scrappy defense that could turn that into a disaster for Mark Few.
If I Had to Bet on Something: TCU +4.5. This one feels like a toss-up, but the spread is basically the same as Xavier-Pittsburgh. TCU won at Kansas, won at Baylor and lost a four-point game at Texas. The Horned Frogs should at least keep this one close, if not win it outright.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Gonzaga
Kerry Miller: Gonzaga
Joel Reuter: TCU
Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/KS/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (CA-ONT), or calling 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA (select parishes)/MD/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY/CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.
No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 13 Furman Paladins
9 of 16
Matchup: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 13 Furman (South Regional)
Details: Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS), Orlando
One-Sentence Synopsis: Either the Mountain West breaks tradition by putting a team into the second weekend of the tournament or Furman's magical run continues into the Sweet 16.
San Diego State Wins If: Three-point percentages hold to form. Opponents take more than 40 percent of shots from three-point range against the Aztecs, but they only make 29 percent of them. Meanwhile, Furman ranks 12th in three-point rate but 158th in three-point percentage. It could be a repeat of Thursday, in which Charleston shot 5-of-24 and couldn't get anything to fall late.
Furman Wins If: Poor defense isn't an issue against a mediocre offense. It wasn't an issue against Virginia, which is just about identical to SDSU in adjusted offensive efficiency. But Furman has allowed at least 70 points in 18 of 35 games played this season, and over the past four seasons, San Diego State is 69-1 when scoring more than 70 points. The lone loss came in a 78-74 overtime game against Arkansas in Maui in November.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 138. San Diego State's last six games have had an average total of 120 points, and only two of its past 12 games have gone over 135.
Predictions
David Kenyon: San Diego State
Kerry Miller: San Diego State
Joel Reuter: Furman
No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 5 Duke Blue Devils
10 of 16
Matchup: No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Duke (East Regional)
Details: Saturday at 2:40 p.m. ET (CBS), Orlando
One-Sentence Synopsis: Rick Barnes has been eliminated before the Sweet 16 in nine of his last 10 trips to the Dance, but can Jon Scheyer get there in his first year at the helm?
Tennessee Wins If: It's a great day for the defense. Over the past five games, Tennessee has gone 57-79-55-79-55 in the points allowed department. If that A-B-A-B pattern continues, the Vols are due for a dud against a Duke team that has averaged 78.5 points over its past four games. But if they have one of their gems on defense, they are 21-0 when holding the competition to 62 points or fewer.
Duke Wins If: Both teams continue to play like they have for the past 6-7 weeks. Tennessee was, without a doubt, the better of the two teams until early February and earned the better seed. However, Duke has been much better than Tennessee since then and ought to be able to win this game on both ends of the floor. The Vols offense has been a season-long mess, but particularly since losing Zakai Zeigler. Over their last three games, they have a minus-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and have averaged just 6.0 steals.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Tennessee +3.5. KenPom makes no effort to account for injuries, but when it has the Vols projected to win by three and Vegas has them projected to lose by 3.5, something smells fishy. The eye test points toward a Duke win, but this could be a 60-58 type of ballgame.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Duke
Kerry Miller: Duke
Joel Reuter: Duke
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks
11 of 16
Matchup: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 Arkansas (West Regional)
Details: Saturday at 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS), Des Moines
One-Sentence Synopsis: It has been 32 years since Kansas upset No. 1 seed Arkansas in the 1991 Elite Eight, but the Razorbacks will be looking to return the favor in the second-ever NCAA tournament meeting between the schools.
Kansas Wins If: It avoids getting sucked into one of Arkansas' foul-filled affairs. In each of its games against a Kansas State team that both attempted and allowed more than 23 free throws per game in league play, the Jayhawks committed at least 23 fouls. That's no good when you have little to no depth. But if it's a free-flowing game with minimal whistles, Kansas should have the edge.
Arkansas Wins If: Anthony Black shuts down Dajuan Harris Jr. You would think shutting down Jalen Wilson or Gradey Dick would be the key to beating Kansas, but here's a stat that keeps getting more ridiculous as the season goes on: Kansas is 26-0 when Harris posts an O-rating of at least 77 (which isn't asking much) and 2-7 when he doesn't. If Black and Jordan Walsh can frustrate Harris into one of his bad days of minimal points and multiple turnovers, advantage Hogs.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Arkansas +3.5. Kansas has made the Final Four in three of the past 10 tournaments, but in each of those runs, the second-round game came down to the wire. (KU won by seven last year against Creighton, but that was a 73-72 game with less than a minute remaining.) Kansas has also been upset in the second round four times in the past eight tournaments. This looks like a great matchup on paper.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Kansas
Kerry Miller: Kansas
Joel Reuter: Kansas
No. 7 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 15 Princeton Tigers
12 of 16
Matchup: No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 15 Princeton (South Regional)
Details: Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET (TNT), Sacramento
One-Sentence Synopsis: After winning an NCAA tournament game for the first time since 2010, Missouri has the unenviable task of trying to eliminate this year's Cinderella story.
Missouri Wins If: A disruptive defense does its thing. Only postseason-ineligible Merrimack had a higher steal percentage than Missouri this season, and while Princeton isn't turnover-prone, it did have 35 combined giveaways in two games against the nation's sixth-best steal-producing defense, Cornell. If the Tigers are forcing turnovers and turning them into easy buckets, Cinderella's carriage could turn into a rotting pumpkin in a hurry.
Princeton Wins If: It hits the shots Utah State could not. Some turnovers will happen, but if Princeton can keep that element under control, it will get open looks against what has not been a great defense (even with all the steals). USU didn't capitalize on its open looks, but maybe Matt Allocco, Blake Peters and Co. will.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Princeton +6.5. Three of the last four No. 15 seeds to win a game went on to win a second one. Why not this one?
Predictions
David Kenyon: Princeton
Kerry Miller: Missouri
Joel Reuter: Missouri
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 9 Auburn Tigers
13 of 16
Matchup: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 9 Auburn (Midwest Regional)
Details: Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS), Birmingham
One-Sentence Synopsis: Houston will have hometown advantage if it makes the Final Four, but it first needs to survive this game against Auburn in Birmingham.
Houston Wins If: It dominates with defense and offensive rebounds. On paper, this is an awful matchup for Auburn, pitting its terrible defensive rebounding against one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country. Auburn also does not shoot well, especially from distance, so it could be a repeat of Northern Kentucky's 5-of-33 performance.
Auburn Wins If: Marcus Sasser is limited and "Cold Houston" makes a prolonged appearance. The Auburn that showed up in February would get destroyed in this game. But if current Auburn gets the version of Houston that showed up Thursday, that's the recipe for an upset. No clue what Sasser's availability is, but the fact that he didn't play in the second half against Northern Kentucky suggests he at least won't be at 100 percent. Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson could have plenty of space to operate.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 132. Sasser or no Sasser, going from Iowa's defense to Houston's defense will be a major adjustment for Auburn, and Auburn was held to 43 points not once but twice this season. Plus, Houston hasn't scored 70 in any of its past five games. First to 60 wins.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Houston
Kerry Miller: Houston
Joel Reuter: Houston
No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions
14 of 16
Matchup: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 10 Penn State (Midwest Regional)
Details: Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET (CBS), Des Moines
One-Sentence Synopsis: Will the team that most lives and dies by the three live or die against Texas?
Texas Wins If: It dominates down low and finds a way to stifle Jalen Pickett. The Longhorns should probably put Timmy Allen on Pickett after watching him have his way against A&M's guards, but regardless of what they do on defense, they can win on the other end by getting the ball to Dylan Disu, Dillon Mitchell and Christian Bishop at the rim as often as possible. Run lobs for Mitchell until Penn State shows it can do a single thing about it.
Penn State Wins If: It stays hot. Penn State shot 13-of-22 from distance in blowing out Texas A&M, and Texas probably won't keep pace if that happens again. Even if the Nittany Lions slip to 9-of-22, though, they're 14-1 this season when shooting better than 40 percent from three. And Texas is not built to make Penn State pay in the paint for its small-ball, four-out offense.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Penn State +5.5. They suffered 13 losses, but the Nittany Lions only get blown out if they're having their worst shooting performance of the season like they did in the 65-45 loss at Rutgers, or if the other team has Zach Edey. We can rule out the latter possibility.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Penn State
Kerry Miller: Penn State
Joel Reuter: Texas
No. 2 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 7 Northwestern Wildcats
15 of 16
Matchup: No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 7 Northwestern (West Regional)
Details: Saturday at 8:40 p.m. ET (TNT), Sacramento
One-Sentence Synopsis: One team has 11 national championships, while the other will play in its fourth NCAA tournament game, but it should be an entertaining rock fight.
UCLA Wins If: The nation's best defense does its thing. As we'll get to momentarily, Northwestern doesn't need much help missing shots, but the Bruins defense is second to none. Even without Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona—the latter of whom was questionable Thursday and might play Saturday—they shut down UNC-Asheville and its star, Drew Pember. They've held 19 teams to 60 points or fewer and should be able to make it 20.
Northwestern Wins If: Boo Buie and Chase Audige repeat Thursday. This is a dreadful shooting team, outside the top 300 in effective field-goal percentage. But when Buie and Audige get into a groove, it doesn't feel like Northwestern has any trouble scoring. This is a spot where UCLA could miss Clark because both of these guards can score from anywhere.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Under 127.5. Both teams are considerably better on defense than they are on offense and play at a below-average pace. One team might get to 64 points, but it's unlikely they both will.
Predictions
David Kenyon: UCLA
Kerry Miller: UCLA
Joel Reuter: UCLA
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 8 Maryland Terrapins
16 of 16
Matchup: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 8 Maryland (South Regional)
Details: Saturday at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS), Birmingham
One-Sentence Synopsis: Major contrast in styles when the fastest offense in the field (Alabama) takes on the second-slowest defense in the nation (Maryland).
Alabama Wins If: Normal Maryland and/or Normal Alabama shows up. The Crimson Tide sputtered through a late-season swoon, but they looked doggone good for the first three months and since the SEC tournament began. Meanwhile, Maryland looked terrible away from home outside of twice rallying from sizable deficits to eke out a Thursday win over WVU. If Alabama brings the noise on both ends of the floor or if Maryland looks nothing like it did in home games this season, Roll Tide.
Maryland Wins If: Brandon Miller's injury is a factor. Miller's zero points in 19 minutes didn't matter against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi because so many other Alabama players had a field day. But if his groin strain is still an issue and he posts another bagel, that is a massive advantage for Maryland.
If I Had to Bet on Something: Alabama -9. The best way to beat Alabama is by causing a problem in the turnovers department, but Maryland hasn't tallied 10 steals in a game this season.
Predictions
David Kenyon: Alabama
Kerry Miller: Alabama
Joel Reuter: Alabama
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
