Predicting 2023 NBA All-Rookie 1st and 2nd Teams
The 2022-23 NBA season should be remembered for a lot of things.
Ushering in a new batch of big-time ballers should be one of them.
No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero has already launched into orbit as a certified star, but he isn't the only freshman making major noise. Far from it, actually.
That's what makes the race for an All-Rookie spot so compelling.
While the race won't be officially called until after the campaign, we don't want to wait that long for the results. So, we're cobbling together traditional and advanced statistics and studying our eye-test results to predict how the two All-Rookie teams will shake out.
Second Team
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Jalen Duren, C, Detroit Pistons
Duren is your prototypical rim-runner with an unfair amount of bounce—especially on his second jumps—for a 6'10", 250-pounder. He checks the most critical boxes for an interior anchor, converting 63.1 percent of his field goals while tallying 12.8 rebounds (5.0 on the offensive end alone) and 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes.
Tari Eason, PF, Houston Rockets
Eason's offensive game is still evolving, but he's already a top-shelf disruptor on the defensive end. He is one of two qualified players with steal and block percentages of 2.5-plus and only the 11th qualified rookie to ever hit those marks (minimum 1,000 minutes). Advanced metrics are huge Eason fans, as he sits second among rookies in RAPTOR and third in estimated plus/minus.
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons
Ivey's counting categories impress (15.4 points and a rookie-best 4.9 assists), and his burst drops jaws. Among all second-teamers, he came closest to snagging a first-team spot, but he was doomed by middling efficiency (41.5/33.1/73.2 slash) and some turnover troubles (3.5 per 36 minutes).
Andrew Nembhard, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers
Nembhard might be the surprise selection here, since there are rookies with louder numbers who didn't make the cut. But he might be the best offensive organizer in this class (4.0 assists against 1.6 turnovers), and he keeps dropping hints of being capable of more. In the 23 games where he's logged 30-plus minutes, he has averaged 11.7 points, 5.3 assists and 1.3 steals.
Jeremy Sochan, PF, San Antonio Spurs
Sochan's across-the-board contributions might read differently if he was on a team more concerned with winning, but San Antonio's lack of expectations has given him the freedom to explore. He's had six games with 20-plus points, seven with nine or more rebounds, nine with at least five assists and 14 with multiple blocks or steals.
Honorable Mention: Malaki Branham, SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs; Christian Braun, SG/SF, Denver Nuggets; AJ Griffin, SF, Atlanta Hawks; Jabari Smith Jr., PF/C, Houston Rockets; Mark Williams, C, Charlotte Hornets
First Team: Paolo Banchero, PF, Orlando Magic
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In the last two decades, only nine rookies have averaged 20-plus points. Save for Tyreke Evans, all of them were or are perennial All-Stars (or will be whenever Zion Williamson stays healthy enough to string more of those honors together).
Paolo Banchero is on course to become the 10th, and he's doing it while posting a better true shooting percentage than Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony had during their first NBA go-rounds.
Banchero isn't the most efficient freshman in his class, but he isn't exactly surrounded by top-tier scoring threats, and he likely sees the most defensive attention of all first-year players. He has had some uber-efficient stretches, none more so than the month of March, during which he's averaging 22.3 points on 44.9/39.3/67.4 shooting.
He is a shoe-in not only for an All-Rookie first team spot, but also the Rookie of the Year award.
First Team: Walker Kessler, C, Utah Jazz
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Walker Kessler is an elite paint protector, and not just for a rookie. Among all freshmen ever to log at least 1,000 minutes, his 2.3 blocks average ranks 18th all-time.
But he has shown so much on that end of the floor that comparing him solely to his first-year peers feels unfair.
Kessler currently sits fifth leaguewide in blocks per game. He's tied for 19th in Defensive RAPTOR and is in the 92nd percentile for estimated defensive plus/minus. Opponents are shooting only 52.1 percent against him at the rim, the third-lowest mark of all players seeing five such attempts per game. His matchups are shooting 12.5 percentage points worse than their average inside of six feet.
Tack on his ultra-reliable finishing (72.1 field-goal percentage) and activity on the glass (13.3 rebounds per 36 minutes), and it's no surprise that advanced statistics are infatuated with him. He leads all rookies in estimated plus/minus and RAPTOR, and his 6.0 win shares are easily the most of the 2022 draft class.
First Team: Bennedict Mathurin, SF, Indiana Pacers
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Bennedict Mathurin is a bucket. Labeling him that way does a disservice to his defense, but scoring is clearly his go-to strength. And it's a powerful one at that.
His 16.6 points per game rank second among rookies. Same goes for his 4.8 made free throws. Yet he's only sixth among rookies with 27.8 minutes.
Mathurin has enough handles to ditch defenders off the bounce, and he has actually fared better on pull-up threes (35.8 percent) than catch-and-shoot triples (29.6). Add his athleticism and fearlessness to the mix, and you have one of the better open-court scorers in the business. Only five players leaguewide have more than his 248 fast-break points.
Mathurin's scoring is down since the start of February, and he's currently working his way back from a sprained ankle, so his season may not end on the highest note. Still, it feels like he locked up this spot a while ago.
First Team: Keegan Murray, SF, Sacramento Kings
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Of all the first-team selections, Keegan Murray's was the last spot to decide. That's more a credit to this class than a criticism of his, but what ultimately nudged him past Jaden Ivey was superior efficiency, stronger two-way play and the added boost from contributing heavily to Sacramento's success.
The Kings have won Murray's minutes by an even 100 points. Why does that matter? Well, 14 rookies have logged 1,000 minutes, and only two have a positive plus/minus: Murray and Walker Kessler (plus-67).
Some of that stems from the support Murray gets from his teammates, but his versatility suggested he could strengthen a winning team, which is exactly what he's doing. He is fifth in minutes and fourth in starts on the second-seeded Kings. If you can't see his fingerprints on Sacramento's surge, you aren't looking hard enough.
Murray is a steady defender, a reliable scorer and an elite shooter. His 158 threes not only lead this class by a mile, but they're also already tied for the 10th-most by a rookie ever. And among the 73 freshmen to hit 100 threes, his 40.2 percent splash rate is 15th-best.
First Team: Jalen Williams, SG/SF Oklahoma City Thunder
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If you want to compile a list of reasons why the Oklahoma City Thunder have exceeded expectations this season, make sure you place Jalen Williams' impact somewhere near the top.
His versatility jumps off the screen, even in a league increasingly defined by that very thing. He has played all five positions and touched every angle of the stat sheet. If the season ended today, Williams would be only the 38th rookie to tally at least 850 points, 250 rebounds, 200 assists, 75 steals and 30 blocks. He would also have the second-highest true shooting percentage of that bunch (60.1), nestled right in between Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan.
"He always reverts to playing the right way so when he is on the gas and a teammate is open, he is spraying the ball," Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault told reporters. "... When you're playing with that kind of force and speed at that size, it is hard to handle. He just competes every night."
Williams probably doesn't have enough schedule left to catch Banchero in the ROY race, but he could make it a conversation the way he has it rolling. In 10 games since the All-Star break—which included a historic 30/5/5 line—he is averaging 21.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists to go along with a sizzling 58.5/46.7/84.4 slash line. Oh, and he's tied for the league lead with 65 steals since the start of January.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, FiveThirtyEight, Dunks & Threes and NBA.com and accurate through Wednesday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
