Teams on Upset Alert in Day 2 of the 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament
The 2023 men's NCAA tournament wasted little time giving us a memorable upset.
For the third straight year, a No. 15 seed upset a No. 2 seed in the first round. The Princeton Tigers followed in the footsteps of Oral Roberts (2021) and Saint Peter's (2022) with a 59-55 victory over Arizona.
The No. 13 seed Furman Paladins also pulled off an upset of No. 4 Virginia in the South Region, hitting a clutch three-pointer off a Cavaliers turnover to come away with a 68-67 victory.
Which teams will be on upset watch Friday?
We've highlighted the five higher seeds on upset alert heading into Friday's games, with a breakdown of what the higher seed needs to do to win and what the upset-minded team must do to stay alive. We've also included the moneyline as of Thursday night for each game via DraftKings.
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Miami Hurricanes (Midwest Region, No. 5 Seed)
1 of 5
Opponent: No. 12 Drake
Moneyline: Miami (-130)
The Miami Hurricanes finished the regular season strong, going 8-1 in their final nine games heading into the ACC tournament while picking up Quad 1 wins over Duke, North Carolina and Clemson.
The team's success is built on an offense that ranks 12th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, and starters Isaiah Wong (16.2 PPG, 3.4 APG), Jordan Miller (15.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG) and Nijel Pack (13.2 PPG, 39.4 3PT%) all average double figures.
With no one taller than 6'7" in the starting lineup and only 6'9" Anthony Walker taller among the eight-man rotation, the Hurricanes are not a very good rebounding team, and they went 1-6 this year in games where the opposition pulled down more than 32 boards.
That could be a potential road to victory for a Drake team with 6'10", 275-pound forward Darnell Brodie (8.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG) banging inside and 6'3" guard Garrett Sturtz (9.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) a great rebounder for his size.
The Hurricanes will also have to slow down Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Tucker DeVries who averages 19.0 points and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 38.7 percent from beyond the arc.
The Bulldogs beat a good Mississippi State team in December, and they are among the favorites to pull off a First Round upset.
Kentucky Wildcats (East Region, No. 6 Seed)
2 of 5
Opponent: No. 11 Providence
Moneyline: Kentucky (-190)
The Kentucky Wildcats suffered one of the biggest upsets in NCAA tournament history last year when No. 15 seed Saint Peter's sent them packing in the First Round.
All-American Oscar Tshiebwe returned for another year to try to avenge that loss, and the double-double machine had a strong season once again, averaging 16.5 points and 13.1 rebounds while shooting 56.3 percent from the floor.
He is joined in averaging double figures by fellow seniors Antonio Reeves (14.4 PPG) and Jacob Toppin (12.5 PPG) on an unusually experienced Kentucky team, but they've dealt with some bumps in the road this season, including a Quad 3 loss to Vanderbilt and a Quad 4 loss to South Carolina.
Are they headed for another early exit?
The Providence Friars reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 4 seed last year, but this is a new-look roster led by Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins who is averaging 16.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists after playing just 6.5 minutes per game for the Wildcats as a freshman last year.
The Friars rank 16th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, and with five players averaging at least 10 points per game, it gives them a well-balanced attack that is difficult to defend.
Saint Mary's Gaels (West Region, No. 5 Seed)
3 of 5
Opponent: No. 5 VCU
Moneyline: Saint Mary's (-190)
The Saint Mary's Gaels love grinding things to a halt.
They rank 359th out of 363 teams in KenPom's adjusted tempo, and they held the opposition to less than 60 points an impressive 15 times this year, going 14-1 in those games with their only loss coming against No. 1 seed Houston.
In order for that approach to work, they need to be efficient offensively, and all seven of their losses came in games where they turned the ball over at least 10 times.
That's where this matchup gets interesting.
The VCU Rams rank fifth in the nation with 16.5 forced turnovers per game, and they are limiting opponents to just 41.5 percent shooting from the floor when they are able to get up a shot.
Junior guard Ace Baldwin ranked second in the A-10 conference with 65 steals and took home Defensive Player of the Year honors, and he'll lead the way for a Rams team that won't be phased by the Gaels' tempo.
It's been 12 years since No. 11 seed VCU reached the Final Foul under head coach Shaka Smart, and this year's team could make some noise if the defense continues to force the opposition into mistakes.
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Indiana Hoosiers (Midwest Region, No. 4 Seed)
4 of 5
Opponent: No. 13 Kent State
Moneyline: Indiana (-195)
The Indiana Hoosiers will go as far as star forward Trayce Jackson-Davis carries them.
The 6'9" senior averages 20.8 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.7 blocks while shooting 57.8 percent from the floor, and he recorded 17 double-doubles and one 12-point, 11-rebound, 10-assist triple-double on the year.
The Hoosier are just 7-7 when he fails to score 20 points, and while he has reached that mark nine times in his last 11 games, that level of reliance on one player's production can be a recipe for disaster.
They will take on a battle-tested Kent State team that has won six straight and upset Toledo in the MAC tournament title game to punch their ticket.
While they finished 0-3 in Quad 1 games, they hung right with Houston (49-44), Gonzaga (73-66) and Charleston (74-72), so they have faced tougher opponents than the Hoosiers without getting run off the floor.
MAC Defensive Player of the Year Malique Jacobs will make it tough on Indiana's guards, and if the Golden Flashes can keep the Hoosiers from getting into a rhythm with their half-court offense, they'll have a chance to pull off the upset.
UConn Huskies (West Region, No. 4 Seed)
5 of 5
Opponent: No. 13 Iona
Moneyline: UConn (-460)
Only five men's college basketball coaches—Mike Krzyzewski, John Wooden, Dean Smith, Roy Williams and Tom Izzo—have more Final Four appearances than the seven that Iona coach Rick Patino has on his impressive resume.
Is that enough for Iona to be part of the Cinderella conversation?
The Gaels did not win a game above the Quad 3 line this season, but they finished 27-7 overall and enter the NCAA tournament riding a 14-game winning streak after winning their three MAAC tournament games by a combined 53 points.
Despite their lackluster strength of schedule, they rank in the top 80 nationally in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and they have three players averaging more than 15 points per game.
They square off against a very good UConn team that has some momentum as well with a 9-2 record over its last 11 games. They smashed No. 1 seed Alabama back in November, but also have questionable January losses to Seton Hall and Saint John's on the resume.
Any Rick Patino coached team is going to come ready to play, and while there is little question the Huskies are the more talented team, this is the most intriguing No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchup of the 2023 tournament.
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