3 X-Factors Killing the Golden State Warriors on the Road
Less than a year removed from a championship run in which Golden State went 5-5 in road playoff games, the Warriors are one of the worst road teams in the NBA.
No, seriously.
Over 80 percent of the way through the season, Golden State is 7-26 away from the Chase Center. Only the rebuilding Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets have lower road winning percentages.
.png?w=256)
The Warriors are also minus-7.2 points per 100 possessions away from home. That mark bests only, you guessed it, the Pistons, Spurs and Rockets.
The reigning champs have played like they're in the hunt for Victor Wembanyama for roughly half the season, and the question is naturally: Why?
Being 29-7 at home (the fourth-best home record in the league) suggests there's still a contender in here somewhere. A plus-12.5 season-long net rating with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green on the floor does too.
But the roller-coaster season may mean the Warriors won't have homecourt advantage in at least the first round (assuming they make the playoffs). So, if they continue to look like this on the road in the postseason, an early exit may be on the way.
There's still time for a course correction, though, and at least two of the three X-factors for their road woes could be the result of inconsistent effort.
Locking in now and hitting a rhythm before the lights get brighter could be the key to repeating.
Giving Up Open Shots
Defense has long been a staple of the Warriors dynasty. In the four seasons in which they won championships with Curry, they ranked first, second, 11th and first in points allowed per 100 possessions.
In 2022-23, they're 12th, but the home and road splits on that number are alarming. At home, their 108.1 points allowed per 100 possessions ranks third. On the road, the 120.6 points they allow per 100 possessions ranks 28th.
So, what gives?
Regardless of where Golden State plays, it's giving up way too many open or wide-open shots.
- Open shots (nearest defender 4-6 feet away) allowed per game at home: 27.4 (fifth-most)
- Wide-open shots (nearest defender 6-plus feet away) allowed per game at home: 19.8 (13th-most)
- Open shots (nearest defender 4-6 feet away) allowed per game away: 27.2 (joint-fifth-most)
- Wide-open shots (nearest defender 6-plus feet away) allowed per game away: 20.9 (joint-eighth-most)
And of course, it's harder to get away with that on the road:
- Effective field-goal percentage allowed on open shots at home: 49.9 (third-lowest)
- Effective field-goal percentage allowed on wide-open shots at home: 55.1 (eighth-lowest)
- Effective field-goal percentage allowed on open shots away: 57.3 (fifth-highest)
- Effective field-goal percentage allowed on wide-open shots away: 63.7 (fourth-highest)
This shouldn't be surprising. Every year, teams shoot better at home than they do on the road. So, if you give up a ton of good looks everywhere you play, you're more likely to get burned when you're the away team.
The answer isn't simply hoping for better luck on those road shots. The Warriors have to expend that little extra effort that's often hard to find at the end of a defensive possession. Better focus on switches and rotations will be key. Harder closeouts will be too.
Of course, that last point could mean opponents attempt more drives toward rim protection that's been subpar over the balance of the season. But if the alternative is continuing to get lit up by jump shooters from three, the Warriors have to at least try.
Whether specifically playing opponents to shoot or drive, though, there shouldn't be a ton of debate about the team needing to ratchet up its defensive intensity on the road, though. And the next factor has to do with that too.
Lack of Rebounding
Rebounding has always had plenty to do with size and athleticism.
When you look at the all-time leaderboard for career rebounding percentage, it's not surprising to see players like Andre Drummond, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard in the top seven. But the second and third spots there are occupied by 6'7" Dennis Rodman and 6'8" Reggie Evans, both of whom exemplified how important effort and timing are in pursuit of missed shots.
The road Warriors could take a cue from them.
At home, Golden State is plus-101 in total rebounds over the course of the season. It's minus-80 in away games.
Opponent's second-chance points haven't been a huge issue, but it's another thing that could be improved upon by simply trying a little harder.
Of course, the Warriors don't have a roster that lends itself to owning the boards. And not having Wiggins (who averaged 7.5 boards per game in the 2022 postseason) for almost half the season hasn't helped.
But the Warriors can't keep losing the rebounding battle in two out of every three road games and expect to win a playoff series without homecourt advantage.
Curry and Wiggins' Availability
Based on nothing but wins and losses, the availability (or lack thereof) of Curry and Wiggins hasn't made a huge difference on the road.
The Warriors are 2-9 (.182 winning percentage) in away games without Curry and 5-17 (.227) in away games with him.
For Wiggins, they're 5-13 (.278) with him on the road and 2-13 (.133) without him on the road.
But it's hard to imagine all these away numbers would be quite as bad if Curry and Wiggins had generally been available throughout the season.
Golden State is still very much in the black (plus-8.6 points per 100 possessions) when the starters are on the floor in road games. And that lineup obviously can't play if one or both of Curry and Wiggins is out.
The former's absences have been the result of seemingly random injuries, but he is 35, so it's not like you can simply count those out. The latter remains away from the team with a personal issue, and there's no timeline for his return.
Every title run requires at least a little good luck, and it's starting to feel like the 2022-23 Warriors' is running out.
Of course, this isn't the only time in the last decade that the Warriors' backs have been against the ropes. And they're almost certainly aware of the issues they need to correct on the road.
If there's a trio who can pull off this dramatic a 180 in March and April, it might be Curry, Thompson and Green.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Wild Lottery Simulation 🫨")
