NCAA Tournament Bracket 2023: Predictions for Biggest Upsets of Men's 1st Round
The madness of March is here.
Kind of.
The 2023 men's NCAA Tournament officially tipped off Tuesday night, with Texas A&M Corpus-Christi edging past Southeast Missouri State and Pittsburgh hanging on against Mississippi State. The real fun gets rolling Thursday, though, as the First Four gives way to the often bracket-busting first round.
Who might blow up those brackets this year? Let's dig into three first-round matchups that already have the hoops world on upset alert.
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No. 12 Drake over No. 5 Miami (Midwest)
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The Bulldogs have the experience to survive the pressures of the tournament spotlight, the firepower to exploit a sometimes leaky Hurricanes' defense and, in sophomore guard Tucker DeVries (son of head coach Darian DeVries), the star power to potentially win big.
Drake has multiple shooting threats, but DeVries is the proverbial straw stirring this team's drink.
He averaged an even 19 points per game, plus 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists. He also shot 45.7 percent from the field, 38.7 percent from three and 83.8 percent at the line. He scored 20-plus points in 16 games and cleared 30 points twice.
Miami, meanwhile, enters this game having lost two of its last four outings and could be without starting forward Norchad Omier, who left the team's ACC Tournament loss to Duke with an ankle injury and never returned. The Hurricanes are talented, but the upset senses are tingling here.
No. 13 Kent State over No. 4 Indiana (Midwest)
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The Hoosiers probably have this game's two most talented players in senior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis and freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino. What they don't have, though, is home-court advantage, which is kind of a big deal when this team went a wholly dominant 15-2 at home but just 5-7 on the road.
Indiana, which split its last eight outings, struggles with inconsistency, and Kent State might have everything needed to capitalize on that inconsistency.
The Golden Flashes sit 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency—or five spots in front of the 43rd-ranked Hoosiers, per KenPom. Senior guard Sincere Carry does a little (or often a lot) of everything, pacing the team with both 17.6 points and 4.9 assists. Senior guard Malique Jacobs and senior forward Miryne Thomas averaged double-digit points. Sophomore guard Jalen Sullinger netted a team-best 42.9 percent of his long-range looks.
Kent State suffered its third loss of the season on Dec. 5 (a seven-point loss to Gonzaga, two games after a five-point loss to Houston) and lost just three more games the rest of the way. The Golden Flashes should be riding high, and if the Hoosiers get out on the wrong foot as they so often have, they could get sent home in a hurry.
No. 12 VCU over No. 5 Saint Mary's (West)
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Saint Mary's runs one of the slowest offenses in college basketball, sitting 359th in tempo. They have enough shooting, passing and awareness to survive or even thrive at this glacial pace.
But VCU's pressure—long a calling card of this program—can throw everything off-kilter.
The Rams will press at every opportunity, and even if they don't force as many turnovers as normal, they'll at least shrink the shot clock. Junior guard Ace Baldwin Jr. is the Atlantic 10's Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Senior forward Brandon Johns Jr. throws his 6'8", 240-pound frame around on the interior. Senior forward David Shriver and sophomore guard Jayden Nunn both shoot better than 40 percent from distance.
The Gaels' don't have a wide margin for error as it is, since they play too slow to race past the opposition. The Rams' relentless pressure will only shrink that margin further.
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