UFC 286 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
UFC 286 is set for this Saturday night in London, England, with a nice, early start time in North America, thanks to the time difference.
The card will be topped by an anticipated welterweight title fight between champion Leon Edwards and challenger Kamaru Usman, who is a decorated former champ himself. It will be the pair's third meeting in the Octagon. Usman won their first fight by unanimous decision in 2015, and Edwards evened the score with a come-from-behind head-kick knockout last August—easily one of the biggest upsets of 2022.
While the Edwards and Usman trilogy is dominating most of the pre-fight chatter, that's not all UFC 286 has to offer.
In the co-main event, No. 3 lightweight contender Justin Gaethje will look to defend his enviable spot in the weight class against surging newcomer and No. 6 contender Rafael Fiziev. It's a fight that is rife with title implications and, more importantly, looks like a guaranteed barnburner on paper.
Before Gaethje and Fiziev get to work, Gunnar Nelson will meet Bryan Barberena at welterweight, and unbeaten flyweight contender Casey O'Neill will take on former title challenger Jennifer Maia.
The main card will kick off with an interesting clash of Top 10 middleweight contenders, with Marvin Vettori taking on Roman Dolidze in a fight that the champion Alex Pereira will be watching closely.
It may not be the most star-studded card we've ever seen, but in terms of potential for excitement, it is a very, very good one.
Keep scrolling to see how the B/R combat sports squad sees the five bouts on the main card unfolding.
Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman III
1 of 5
Tom Taylor: The moment from Edwards and Usman's second fight that has really stuck with me is not Edwards' stunning fifth-round knockout but the fact that the Brit actually outgrappled Usman in the first round.
Granted, Usman turned the tables on him in Rounds 2, 3 and 4, but Round 1 gave me confidence that Edwards is, at the least, almost as good as Usman on the mat. And as we know, he can definitely beat the Nigerian American on the feet.
I suspect Edwards has leveled up even further in the seven months since that fight, whereas Usman could be less durable and, worse, less confident. You can see where I'm going with this.
As B/R combat sports legend Scott Harris so frequently said, sound the upset alarms—again.
Edwards by unanimous decision
Haris Kruskic: After controlling the majority of their previous two fights, I just can't pick against Kamaru Usman here.
Having rewatched their last encounter, the unrelenting pressure that Usman implements so well completely negated Edwards for most of the fight. It was only when the former champ took his foot off the gas in the fifth round that Edwards opened up with his striking. The rest is history.
I imagine Usman now understands that he can't grow complacent in this fight. His conditioning and grappling are clearly better. He just has to finish the job.
Usman by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: The most recent image any of us have of Usman is when he was knocked loopy by a head kick that set Edwards off on a particularly memorable post-fight celebration.
But he'd beaten him in a three-rounder before that. And he'd controlled the initial four rounds of the rematch to the point where the broadcast crew was wondering if Edwards had mentally surrendered.
The home crowd will boost the new champ, but the old champ is simply better.
Usman by unanimous decision
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
2 of 5
Tom Taylor: I, for one, am tired of watching the UFC's Top 5 lightweights fight each other—as good as most of their fights have been. It's just time for some new blood at the top of the weight class.
Enter Rafael Fiziev, who, after years spent honing his muay thai in Phuket, is arguably the best striker in the division right now.
Justin Gaethje's takedowns could make this interesting—he's a great wrestler, even if he tends to forget that fact in his fights—but I think Fiziev has the striking skill and stopping power to upset the status quo in the UFC's new glamour division.
Fiziev by knockout, Rd. 3.
Haris Kruskic: I've been going back and forth with this for weeks.
Everyone is on the Rafael Fiziev bandwagon. I get it. He's a very gifted striker. However, I still have questions regarding his strength of competition up to this point, with then-37-year-old Rafael Dos Anjos being his best win. I also question if he possesses enough power to finish someone as durable as Justin Gaethje. And if he doesn't, can he outpoint him before Gaethje does considerable damage?
Meanwhile, the former lightweight title challenger has fought the division's very best and knows what it takes to beat world-class strikers. It's exactly the kind of fight he thrives in.
I normally recognize a passing-of-the-torch fight when I see it, but I'm just not there yet with Fiziev.
Gaethje by TKO, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's not you, it's me. Actually, it's not me, it's him. While I recognize that Gaethje is a tough dude and an exciting fighter, I've never quite understood the reverence he seems to command.
He's a pedestrian 5-4 in his last nine fights—losing twice by submissions and twice by KOs—and his wins in that stretch have come against guys who've combined to go 3-17 with a no contest since they fought.
Maybe he ruined them. Or maybe his timing was exquisite.
We'll find out for sure against a guy who's won six straight. And if I'm wrong, the first round of crow is on me.
Fiziev by unanimous decision
Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena
3 of 5
Tom Taylor: To me, this one comes down to how much Nelson has left in the tank. He's been in the UFC for ages and long ago proved he can hang with the best. However, he has never been consistent and has been even less active.
If he is anywhere near his prime, though, he should be able to beat Barberena, who, while durable and powerful, has proved many times that he can be both knocked out and submitted.
Whether he does it with his karate striking or his jiu-jitsu, Nelson should win. I'll go with the latter.
Nelson by submission, Rd. 2
Haris Kruskic: I'm going to take this time to vent about UFC fight order. Why is Raul Rosas Jr. on the main card of UFC 287 and Muhammad Mokaev is buried in the prelims of this event? Instead of elevating another highly touted prospect with three UFC wins to his name already, we get two veterans with little draw power or momentum on the main card. The inconsistency is maddening sometimes.
All right, off my soapbox.
Bryan Barberena historically struggles against grappling, which Gunnar Nelson is very good at. Nelson struggles against power, which Barberena isn't known for.
Nelson by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Barberena has been working the senior side of the street for his recent fights, defeating a 41-year-old Matt Brown and a 40-year-old Robbie Lawler before crossing into the 30s and losing by neck crank to a relative youngster in the 38-year-old Rafael dos Anjos.
Nelson hasn't been particularly active while running up just 15 minutes of Octagon time since before the COVID-19 pandemic, but he's a legitimate jiu-jitsu badass, and that spells trouble for a guy who's been finished in three of his last four losses.
Nelson by submission, Rd. 1
Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O'Neill
4 of 5
Tom Taylor: It would be easy to group Casey O'Neill in with the likes of Alexa Grasso, Manon Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield—all members of the new generation at flyweight. However, I don't think she is quite as good as any of those women, most notably because she isn't quite as athletic, which is particularly evident when she's striking.
Still, I think she should be able to assert herself as a legitimate title contender by outgrappling Jennifer Maia this weekend—even if her undefeated record falls apart soon thereafter.
O'Neill by unanimous decision
Haris Kruskic: This is a step up in competition for Casey O'Neill. Jennifer Maia's grappling is always strong, but all of her losses came against top-tier strikers, and I think O'Neill is in that category.
O'Neill by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: If it's a question of who's accomplished more and been in higher-profile matches to this point, then Maia is a hands-down winner. But this one's every bit as much about trajectory.
O'Neill, at 25, seems destined for the things Maia has experienced and seems, too, like she might be able to succeed in some of the situations where her imminent rival has not.
Unless it's a rust issue or a knee issue, this is a follow-up coming-out party.
O'Neill by unanimous decision
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
5 of 5
Tom Taylor: Roman Dolidze is a scary guy. During his fairly short time in the UFC middleweight division, he has proved that he can knock his foes senseless on the feet, pound them into a paste on the ground and submit them if the opportunity presents itself.
Unfortunately, his next foe is Marvin Vettori, who is extremely well-rounded, has great cardio, and perhaps, most notably in terms of this matchup, is seemingly impossible to finish.
If Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, Kevin Holland and a 205-pound Paulo Costa couldn't do it, I doubt Dolidze can, either. Vettori makes it ugly and wins a decision.
Vettori by unanimous decision
Haris Kruskic: There's a theme on the UFC 286 main card: promising contenders vs. solidified contenders.
Roman Dolidze is on quite a tear with three straight KO wins, including a victory over Jack Hermansson on short notice last December. Meanwhile, Marvin Vettori is coming off a one-sided loss to Robert Whittaker, where he looked very flat.
However, Vettori just doesn't get knocked out, and Dolidze struggled in his earliest UFC fights when they went to the later rounds. The Italian Dream is a good wrestler, has great cardio, went to Thailand to improve his striking and will prove to be too well-rounded of a fighter for Dolidze.
Vettori by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'll admit it. I was all-in on Vettori when he faced Israel Adesanya a couple of years back at UFC 263.
I read the press clippings. I saw the training footage. I thought he was rough and tumble enough to get Izzy to the ground, keep him there and win himself a middleweight title.
And then, meh.
Even though he defeated Paulo Costa four months later, I wasn't ready to turn back to his side. And when he laid another egg against Robert Whittaker last September, I was off the train for good.
Dolidze pieces him up and wins going away.
Dolidze by unanimous decision
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