Raiders Settle for Status Quo with Jimmy Garoppolo Contract in NFL Free Agency

The Las Vegas Raiders waited until February 14 to release longtime starting quarterback Derek Carr. They didn't wait long at all to bring in his replacement.

Shortly after the NFL's legal contact period began at noon ET on Monday, news broke that the Raiders had agreed to a three-year contract with former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, it'll be a three-year deal worth $67.5 million with $34 million guaranteed:

When the deal can become official—along with the start of free agency at 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday—Raiders fans should fully expect head coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler to spin Garoppolo as a clear upgrade over Carr.

In a few ways, he might be.

Garoppolo is a strong play-action passer with the combination of touch and anticipation needed to attack the middle of the field, and he does know what it takes to reach the postseason.

In San Francisco, Garoppolo started in two NFC title games and one Super Bowl.

Most importantly, Garoppolo knows McDaniels' offense, having played under the Raiders head coach when both were with the New England Patriots. Garoppolo should adapt to the system quickly and do everything McDaniels asks of him.

Make no mistake, the Raiders targeted Garoppolo because he's McDaniels' guy. They moved quickly to reach an agreement because other teams were reportedly interested.

Before the Carolina Panthers made their Friday trade with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 pick, NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported that Carolina, Las Vegas and the Houston Texans were expected to show interest in Garoppolo.

At an average price of $22.5 million, Garoppolo isn't an overly expensive option either. However, Las Vegas is very much in the same situation at quarterback it was a year ago.

Jimmy G is not a long-term answer for this franchise. He's less than a year younger than Carr, and while he might mesh better with McDaniels than Carr did, he's not a better quarterback.

Carr is a four-time Pro Bowler who has frequently been tasked with carrying a middling roster. His 86.3 passer rating in 2022 was disappointing and significantly lower than Garoppolo's 103.0 rating. However, the 49ers had one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the league.

Las Vegas had a roster that ranked 28th in total defense and ranked 26th in points allowed. Despite having the league's leading rusher in Josh Jacobs, the Raiders frequently had to play catch-up on the scoreboard, and they ranked 11th in pass attempts.

San Francisco ranked 26th in pass attempts and regularly asked Garoppolo to play the game-manager role. He won't have that luxury in Las Vegas unless the Raiders significantly improve other areas of their roster, namely the defense.

Garoppolo has never proved that he can carry an offense, and he's rarely done so in the clutch. He has just 11 fourth-quarter comebacks in his career. Carr has 28.

The Raiders' ceiling with Garoppolo under center isn't any higher than it was with Carr. This isn't a quarterback switch that will suddenly make Las Vegas a championship contender—again, not with the current roster.

The other factor to consider is Garoppolo's injury history. It's significant and includes a torn ACL in 2018, a 2020 high ankle sprain and last year's season-ending foot injury. Since 2018, Garoppolo has averaged just 10.2 games per season.

Garoppolo's durability—or lack thereof—likely played a role in San Francisco's decision to trade up for Trey Lance in the 2021 draft. It should be a very real concern for Las Vegas as well.

The Raiders cannot count on Garoppolo lasting a full 17-game season. It would behoove them to add another experienced veteran to the quarterback room as insurance in the coming days.

Jarrett Stidham, who started the final two games of 2022, won't be back.

Jacoby Brissett, another former Patriot, would be a logical fit in Las Vegas, though he may have starting options he'd prefer to explore. Other available quarterbacks include Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz.

Given Garoppolo's age, injury history and lack of elite physical upside, he should be viewed as a serviceable placeholder for a year or two, but that's it.

Las Vegas needs to find a quarterback with the skills and the playmaking ability to regularly go toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert and win. The Raiders clearly didn't believe Carr was that quarterback. Even if the Raiders eventually say otherwise publicly, Garoppolo isn't that guy either.

The signing of Garoppolo should not prohibit the Raiders from targeting a quarterback in the 2023 draft and/or eyeing the 2024 quarterback class.

Landing one of this draft's top signal-callers—Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson or Alabama's Bryce Young—with the seventh overall pick probably isn't happening. However, Las Vegas should still consider trading up for one of those three, staying put and targeting Kentucky's Will Levis or grabbing a developmental quarterback in the later rounds.

Perhaps the biggest asset Garoppolo will provide is time. He's good enough when healthy to steer the proverbial ship while McDaniels develops Las Vegas' next quarterback. If the Raiders draft a quarterback this year, they won't have to thrust him into action immediately.

This is a luxury the Raiders gave up when they released Carr and one they now have again. That's great, but it doesn't mean that Las Vegas is in a better position after the quarterback switch. It isn't.

Garoppolo's deal is cheaper annually than Carr's was, and he and McDaniels may have a successful reunion. Raiders fans should in no way be angry about the deal. in the grand scheme, though, the elongated Carr-Garoppolo swap was a lateral move that leaves Las Vegas as the third- or fourth-best team in the AFC West.

Las Vegas won't have its big quarterback upgrade until it drafts one capable of carrying the franchise for the foreseeable future.

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*Statistics from Pro Football Reference