NCAA Tournament 2023: Early Predictions for Men's Sweet 16 Post-Selection Sunday
The goal for any of the top teams in the NCAA men's basketball tournament is to cut down the nets at the Final Four.
Before they reach Houston, the top sides have to navigate some potentially difficult matchups to get to the Sweet 16.
Reaching the second weekend of play should be the first goal for top seeds Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue.
Some of the No. 1 seeds could be challenged by No. 8 or No. 9 seeds in the second round, but if they play their best games, they should get through to the second weekend.
Other top teams in the March Madness bracket have larger concerns, whether it be injuries or poor form.
Chalk typically does not hold in the Big Dance, so we should see a few of the top 16 teams in the field fall in the first or second round. Tennessee and Virginia are among the programs on upset alert, and that could lead to some interesting seed pairings in the Sweet 16.
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South Region
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Alabama and Arizona have ideal paths to the Sweet 16.
The Crimson Tide should get past either Maryland or West Virginia, and the same can be said about the Wildcats versus Missouri or Utah State, should they defeat Princeton.
The top two seeds in the South Region each have strong offenses, and they proved during Championship Week in the SEC and Pac-12 that they can win the most important games.
Alabama has the best player in the bracket in Brandon Miller, who should take over in both games on the first weekend. Arizona's Azoulas Tubelis could do the same, and if Courtney Ramey makes shots for the Wildcats, they will be hard to stop as a well-rounded unit.
The other two Sweet 16 spots are much harder to figure out. San Diego State and Virginia are vulnerable because of their defensive styles of play. Charleston and Furman will be two of the favorite first-round upset picks.
Charleston plays at a fast tempo that can challenge San Diego State. Furman can take advantage of Virginia's offense not looking the same since Ben Vander Plas got hurt.
A Charleston-Furman second-round game could happen, and if it does, the Cougars should get through. Charleston has three losses on the season and it can outscore any team in the tournament.
Creighton's depth could be a problem against Baylor if chalk holds in the bottom half of the bracket. This is not Scott Drew's best Baylor, but the battle-tested Big 12 side can ride its experienced guards LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler to the second weekend, no matter what matchup it faces in the second round.
Prediction: Alabama vs. Charleston, Arizona vs. Baylor
East Region
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The East Region has the potential for the most chaos.
Top seed Purdue could be vulnerable in the second round because of the guard play from Memphis and Florida Atlantic.
Zach Edey holds the size advantage over any player on the Tigers and Owls rosters, and that could be the difference that prevents Purdue from an early exit.
Purdue should survive the second-round challenge if Edey shines and its guards just match the output of Memphis or FAU.
The Duke-Oral Roberts winner will probably end up facing Purdue in the Sweet 16.
Duke is playing some of the best basketball of any team entering the field of 68. The Blue Devils are thriving because of their defense, and they will need it against Max Abmas and the high-scoring Golden Eagles.
Jeremy Roach's veteran presence could be vital in the backcourt for Duke to deal with Abmas' scoring threat.
Tennessee is a vulnerable No. 4 seed because of Zakai Zeigler's season-ending ACL injury. Duke may have little trouble getting past the Vols if it avoids the upset to Oral Roberts.
Marquette is the favorite in the bottom half of the East Region, but they could run into some fatigue after winning the Big East regular-season and tournament titles.
The Golden Eagles should get past either Michigan State or USC in the second round, but it may be a closer game than experts think.
Kentucky is lurking as the No. 6 seed, and if they play their best basketball, they could get through to the second weekend.
The Wildcats should be motivated by last season's first-round exit to St. Peter's and that could be the driving force to get them past Providence and Kansas State.
Prediction: Purdue vs. Duke, Marquette vs. Kentucky
Midwest Region
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Houston's potential for a deep run in March relies on Marcus Sasser's health.
Sasser's confident he would be 100 percent for the Big Dance, despite missing Sunday's AAC tournament final, per the Houston Chronicle's Joseph Duarte.
Houston should pass Iowa or Auburn in the second round. Both the Hawkeyes and Tigers were inconsistent throughout the regular season, and they may not be able to handle Houston's intense pressure on defense.
Drake's defense could be the difference-maker in its matchup with Miami. The Hurricanes lack a strong defense, and that is their undoing against a No. 12 seed that rarely allows opponents over 70 points.
A Drake win would open up a path for Trayce Jackson-Davis and Indiana to cruise into the Sweet 16. Jackson-Davis' size and ability to get in the right spots in the paint could end Drake's second-weekend chances.
Texas got an awful draw as the No. 2, as they either have to face a hot Penn State team or its longtime rival Texas A&M.
A&M was the second-best team in the SEC all season, but it ended up as a No. 7. Buzz Williams will use that as motivation for his squad and that could be bad news for Penn State and Texas.
A&M consistently held opponents under 65 points, and it is a real threat to Texas making the second weekend.
Xavier should be favored to win its quadrant over an Iowa State team that is 2-5 in its last seven games. The Cyclones might be susceptible to an upset against the Mississippi State-Pitt First Four winner. If that is the case, Xavier has an even easier path to the Sweet 16.
Prediction: Houston vs. Indiana, Xavier vs. Texas A&M
West Region
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Kansas and Gonzaga do not have many concerns about their squads entering the NCAA tournament.
Both teams could face tight games in the second round against Arkansas and TCU, but they have the experience that could be a massive benefit in those games.
Look to Jalen Wilson and Drew Timme to lead their respective sides through anything thrown at them in the first weekend.
The same can be said about Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez at UCLA, but the Bruins are dealing with injury issues.
Jaylen Clark was ruled out for the season and Adem Bona missed the Pac-12 tournament final.
If Bona can't play, or is hampered by his shoulder injury, the Bruins will lose their paint presence.
There should be concerns about UCLA, but it should have the experience and firepower on offense through Campbell and Jaquez to get past UNC Asheville and then Northwestern or Boise State.
UConn will be a popular pick to cruise into the second weekend, but the Huskies could have trouble with Saint Mary's defensive style.
The Gaels will not be a favorite pick to reach the Sweet 16 because of their awful showing in the WCC tournament final against Gonzaga, but that was just one game and it should not be a reflection of their whole season.
Saint Mary's has a top 25 defense that held Houston to 53 points on December 3. The Gaels can compete with any offense, and on top of that, they have some extra motivation to prove the WCC tournament final was just one bad night and nothing more.
Prediction: Kansas vs. Saint Mary's, UCLA vs. Gonzaga
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