Are the New York Knicks Finally Real NBA Title Contenders in 2023?
Teams coached by Tom Thibodeau have almost always been known for their defense, but the 2022-23 New York Knicks are making their mark on offense.
They have been so good on that end that the question has to be asked: Are the Knicks actual Eastern Conference contenders?
In Thibodeau's 11 years as an NBA head coach, he has had only three teams in the top five of the league in offensive rating, including this season. This year's Knicks are fifth in points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. For context, they were 21st in that metric last season.
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So, what has changed?
Jalen Brunson
The first big change has been the arrival of point guard Jalen Brunson. He has done a great job getting the offense organized and the Knicks into sets.
Having a floor general like Brunson has helped raise the floor for the Knicks' offense. The team's offensive rating is 118.7 with him on the court, but it drops down to 108.3 when he is off the floor.
Brunson has come through in clutch situations, too. He's averaging 4.1 points on 50.6 percent shooting in the final few minutes of games separated by five or fewer points. He is the Knicks' go-to scorer, as he recently proved against Miami.
However, Brunson has missed four of the Knicks' last five games because of a left foot injury. If that continues to linger, it will lower New York's ceiling.
Julius Randle
One of the biggest beneficiaries of Brunson's arrival has been Julius Randle, who is having a big bounce-back season. Of Brunson's 380 assists, Randle has received a team-high 116.
Randle's success has not just been because of Brunson, though. He got his groove back in his isolation, too.
Last season, Randle averaged 0.859 points per possession in isolation, according to according to Synergy Sports. This season, he's averaging 0.992 points per possession in isolation.
A key part of that is how he's getting into those isolations. The Knicks are running an action to get the defense moving before going into a Randle isolation.
This play against Miami is a good example. The Knicks run a "get" action between Randle and Brunson, then Brunson comes off a pick-and-roll to feed Randle who has posted up in the mid-post.
Immanuel Quickley
The emergence of Immanuel Quickley could also help make the Knicks a contender.
Quickley comes in off the bench and provides a boost of energy for the Knicks. He's averaging a career-high 13.5 points in 28.4 minutes per game and is among the favorites to win Sixth Man of the Year, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Quickley's change-of-speed ability has put defenses on its heels. He completely torched the Boston Celtics in a recent double-overtime win where he dropped 16 points in the fourth quarter and the two overtime frames.
The Total Picture
Brunson, Randle and Quickley are the main drink-stirrers for the Knicks. But the supporting cast has also produced for New York.
Mitchell Robinson, who's averaging a team-high 1.6 blocks per game, provides rim protection when healthy. Isaiah Hartenstein has finally found a role after some early-season struggles. Obi Toppin ups the tempo when he enters games. The trade-deadline addition of Josh Hart has more than paid off for the Knicks thanks to his defensive toughness and three-point shooting.
There are two things these Knicks do better than most teams: They do a great job of driving to the basket and offensive rebounding.
The Knicks are second leaguewide in both drives per game (56.1) and points scored off drives (33.0). They're also second in offensive rebound percentage and second-chance points.
This leads back to the key question: Are the Knicks actual contenders?
Are The Knicks Contenders?
There are a few reasons why the Knicks should not be considered legitimate contenders for the 2023 NBA title.
Despite having added more actions into their playbook, the Knicks are still largely dependent on a heavy isolation game. A similar predicament led to their demise in their last playoff series two years ago against the Atlanta Hawks.
Relying on an isolation-heavy offense might work in the regular season, but it could fail the Knicks in the playoffs. It is much easier to take a team out of their isolation game in the playoffs when teams have more time to scheme against it.
It is worrisome that the Knicks are dead last in assists per game this season. The ball has a tendency to stick, so teams will load up and create issues. They're also only 23rd in three-point percentage.
New York shot better during its recent nine-game win streak in large part because Hart shot a blistering 59.1 percent from three. That is not sustainable, but that is not the Knicks' biggest problem. RJ Barrett is.
Barrett has not developed the way one would hope a top-three pick in the draft would. His counting stats look fine, but his three-point percentage has dipped for the second straight season to a career-low 31.7 percent.
The Knicks' defense is much better with Barrett off the floor, too. They're allowing only 105.5 points per 100 possessions with him off the floor and 116.3 per 100 with him on. Teams will look to take advantage of him in the playoffs.
The Knicks followed their recent nine-game win streak with a three-game losing streak. The win streak had them threatening the Cleveland Cavaliers for the fourth seed, but they have now dropped down to sixth.
Overall, the Knicks have improved. Thibodeau has done a great job working in the offense, not to mention trusting his younger players. They still have some issues, but they're trending in the right direction.
The Knicks have enough talent to win a playoff series in the right matchup, but their offensive profile and defensive weak links will keep them out of the contender conversation for this season.
Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men's national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA.
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