Predicting 8 NFL Players Who Will Be Overpaid in 2023 Free Agency
With NFL free agency officially set to start on Wednesday and the legal tampering period starting on Monday, the dollars are about to start flying in the league.
Free agency can be a transformational tool for some teams. The signing of Haason Reddick unlocked an entirely new level for the Philadelphia Eagles last season. But it isn't all sunshine, rainbows and success stories.
Some teams wind up giving out way too much money to players who will severely underperform the big numbers thrown their way.
Success in free agency is all about volume. For the most part, none of the players about to get paid are bad players. They can, however, wind up being overpaid.
Whether it's age, injury history, leaving the ideal situation or the general supply-and-demand of a position, these players are set to get way too much money in a few days.
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
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Teams that are determined to make a splash by adding a big-name receiver are either going to have to trade for one or talk themselves into Odell Beckham Jr.
There just aren't that many receivers in this free-agency class who are going to make headlines, but the buzz around OBJ is already starting to build.
Ahead of free agency, the 30-year-old reportedly put on a workout for NFL teams and at least 12 clubs sent personnel to watch, per Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports. That list included several teams who should be looking for help at wide receiver in the Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Browns.
It conspicuously didn't even include the Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones was interested in OBJ last season and even hosted him for a visit in December before the wideout ultimately decided to sit out the season.
All of this interest points to a fairly strong market for Beckham, but it's fair to wonder if those teams are setting themselves up for disappointment.
Beckham sat out the entire 2022 season as he recovered from the ACL tear he suffered in Super Bowl LVI. It was the same ACL that he tore in 2020.
So now Beckham hits the market as the biggest name at receiver, but he hasn't posted more than 537 receiving yards in a season since 2019.
CB James Bradberry
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James Bradberry undoubtedly earned himself a whole lot of money in 2022. After getting released by the New York Giants, the Eagles picked him up on a one-year deal, and Bradberry rewarded them with his first All-Pro season.
Now, he hits the open market coming off the best season of his career just as he's set to turn 30 in August.
Bradberry deserves credit for making the most of the opportunity, but it's important to understand the context. He held opposing passers to a 51.6 passer rating when targeted, per Pro Football Reference, but he was also in the perfect situation.
Playing across from Darius Slay, Bradberry wasn't always tasked with covering the other team's best receiver. He also had the benefit of playing in front of a historic pass rush. The Eagles led the league with 70 sacks.
Cornerback play is naturally volatile. As good as Bradberry was, it's fair to wonder what he will look like as he enters his 30s and will likely be playing in a less ideal situation next season.
He is one year removed from giving up eight touchdowns and a passer rating of 93.0. Projecting forward, Bradberry's production probably lies somewhere between his 2021 and 2022 campaigns, even if he's likely to get paid based on the more recent season.
LB Tremaine Edmunds
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Tremaine Edmunds was phenomenal for the Buffalo Bills this season. The ultra-athletic 6'5", 250-pound linebacker was all over the field for a good Bills defense and posted a career-high 79.0 grade from PFF.
Edmunds has always had the traits to be an elite linebacker, but he hadn't put it together. His biggest strides came in coverage, where he allowed a paltry 4.9 yards per target and a passer rating of 69.9.
For context, he registered a 50.4 grade from PFF while giving up 8.4 yards per target and a passer rating of 106.1 the season before.
Tom Pelissero of NFL Network has speculated that Edmunds could command a contract that's worth more than $15 million annually. That would make him at least the fifth-highest-paid inside linebacker in the league, per Spotrac.
That's a huge bet that Edmunds is going to continue to be elite. Given that he only has one season of elite production, while playing alongside Matt Milano and in front of a great safety duo in Jordan Poyer and MIcah Hyde, that's a risky bet.
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WR Jakobi Meyers
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Scarcity of resources can always play a factor in free agency. This is not a great year to be in the market for a wide receiver.
Those roaming through the desert of this class of wide receivers may see mirages of Jakobi Meyers being a No. 1 wide receiver. After all, he has led the New England offense in receiving in each of the last three seasons.
The problem is that the Patriots have also not had a good passing attack in those three years. From 2020-2022, they ranked 23rd in team EPA per dropback, according to rbsdm.com.
Meyers brings good versatility to an offense. He played just over 50 percent of his snaps in the slot, per Player Profiler, But he doesn't stretch the field. Last season his average depth of target (ADOT) of 10.0 was ranked 62nd in the league.
Essentially, Meyers can look like one of the top receivers in the class because it's so shallow, he's had good production and he's 26 years old.
But his lack of athleticism and upside make him a solid No. 2 or even No. 3 receiver who could potentially get paid like a low-end WR1. Spotrac projects a four-year, $50 million contract that would be 28th among receivers in the league.
OT Mike McGlinchey
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Good tackles are hard to find, so NFL teams will be excused for talking themselves into handing Mike McGlinchey a big contract.
McGlinchey is 28 years old, coming off a season in which he earned a respectable 71.5 grade from PFF and kept a clean bill of health, playing in all 17 games.
A closer look throws some red flags for any team looking to hand the bag to McGlinchey this offseason. As Brandon Thorn of Trench Warfare noted in his free-agent rankings, McGlinchey played in, "a very OL-friendly scheme with the 49ers, carrying the risk of seeing his play dip in a more pass-oriented system."
Kyle Shanhan's usage of wide zone and play-action set up McGlinchey to have success in San Francisco, but he still drew 10 penalties and allowed six sacks, per PFF.
It's good to keep in mind that Laken Tomlinson left the Niners to go to New York last season on a three-year, $40 million contract. His PFF grade went from a 75.9 to a 56.8 with the Jets.
Thorn placed McGlinchey in his third tier of free-agent tackles as a "below-average starter". The likelihood that he gets paid like one is slim. Someone is going to go big to bring in a tackle coming off a decent season in his prime.
OT Kaleb McGary
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Tackle is a premium position in the NFL, but it's important to understand the premium skill teams pay for is pass protection. So if you're going to dedicate significant cap dollars to a veteran tackle, it has to make an appreciable difference in how well you protect the quarterback.
Whether Kaleb McGary can do that is up for debate.
McGary saw a huge uptick in his evaluation from PFF this season. The 28-year-old allowed nine sacks and earned a 62.8 grade from their analysts in 2021, but in his contract year, he righted the ship with an 86.6 grade.
Context and scheme are important when considering McGary, though. The Atlanta Falcons were a run-heavy team with the highest rate of zone concepts and play-action passing, per The 33rd Team.
Arthur Smith's reliance on the run and lack of pure dropbacks were able to maximize McGary's skill set and hide his weaknesses.
If a team signs McGary to a competitive contract he's going to have a hard time living up to it unless the team runs a similar run-heavy scheme.
Edge Yannick Ngakoue
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Yannick Ngakou has racked up 19.5 sacks over the last two seasons. He's never turned in an NFL season with fewer than eight.
In a league in which pass-rushing is always at a premium, Ngakoue has played on five different teams in his eight-year career. That's not normal.
Ngakoue's journeyman career is partially because of the fact he's not a strong run defender. At 6'2", 246 pounds, he has the speed and athleticism to be a successful finesse pass-rusher, but he's never been great at setting the edge and working against the run.
Despite that, Spotrac projects Ngakoue's market value to bring a four-year, $59.2 million contract.
If a team decides to give him a contract like that, they will truly be chasing sack totals. Ngakoue's pass-rush win rate has dropped in each of the last four seasons, all the way down to 14 percent in 2022, per Seth Walder of ESPN.
Ngakoue will be 28 by the end of March. He's always been a player who is reliant on his athleticism to win against bigger linemen. His sack total could be hiding a player who is declining as he approaches 30.
TE Dalton Schultz
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Before making an offer on Dalton Schultz, teams should consider why he's on the market.
The Dallas Cowboys let some high-quality free agents walk last year but franchise tagged Schultz. It was a move that gave him an opportunity to build on his breakout 2021 season in an offense that was losing Amari Cooper.
Instead, Schultz showed that his production in 2021 (78 catches, 808 yards and eight touchdowns) may have just been a byproduct of being the third option on an offense with two strong receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Cooper.
This year was probably more telling about who Schultz really is. He posted 57 receptions for 577 yards and five touchdowns. He's a reliable set of hands with a 93.4 percent true catch rate, per Player Profiler.
But his average depth of target (7.3 yards) was 16th among tight ends, and he doesn't create a lot of yards after the catch at 2.4 per target.
If Schultz gets paid like a mid-tier tight end, that will be fine from a value perspective. But Mike Gesicki is more of a jumbo slot receiver, which makes Schultz the best traditional tight end on the market.
That makes it likely some team is going to sign Schultz to a contract they will come to regret.
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