Potential Chaos Teams in Men's College Basketball Conference Tournaments
No matter how confident we are about predictions for the men's NCAA tournament bracket, conference tournaments can always throw a significant twist in the conversation.
In 2022, for example, neither Virginia Tech nor Richmond likely would have secured an at-large bid. However, both programs won a league tournament title and headed to March Madness as automatic qualifiers.
Bid-stealers aren't the only agents of chaos, though.
Right now, bubble teams are living on the edge. One victory won't necessarily secure an NCAA berth, but a bad loss might be devastating. Several of these programs have a shot at providing that loss.
The choices are subjective but focus on the biggest potential disruptors within three categories: bid thieves, teams on the projected wrong side of NCAA tourney and potential bubble-bursting teams. Some teams on this list could potentially check two or more of those boxes.
Arizona State Sun Devils
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Arizona State is a classic bubble team.
Holding a 20-11 record, the Sun Devils enter the Pac-12 tournament as the sixth seed. They've picked up quality wins and only endured one miserable setback to Texas Southern. In short: Some good victories, a few unfortunate losses and lots of results in between.
The opening-round game against Oregon State is a must-win moment for Arizona State. Lose there, and kiss the NCAA tournament goodbye. But a victory sets up a chance for redemption opposite USC.
Twice this campaign, the Sun Devils have lost tight finishes to the Trojans, including a 68-65 game in the regular-season finale.
If the third time is indeed the charm, the Sun Devils will improve their own appeal and could potentially move into the field of 68. For added drama, that upset could drag the likely NCAA-bound Trojans down a seed line or two, potentially putting them in the mix for the First Four.
Clemson Tigers
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Over the past month, Clemson has an endured an inglorious fall, both out of ACC contention and from projected NCAA brackets.
Following an 18-4 start that featured a 10-1 conference mark, the Tigers dropped five of their last nine outings. Worst of all, that stretch included bad losses at Boston College and Louisville. Clemson ended the regular season with four losses in Quadrants 3 and 4.
But the Tigers aren't finished just yet.
Thanks to some tiebreaker luck, they're the No. 3 seed in the ACC tournament. That puts Clemson just two victories away from a shot at the automatic bid, and potential wins against bubble-ish North Carolina State and NCAA lock Virginia would be good for the resume, too.
Granted, it's worth noting that NC State could basically solidify its NCAA appeal with a victory over Clemson. That possible matchup in the quarterfinals would carry major importance.
Conference USA Teams Beyond FAU
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Welcome to bid-thief territory.
Florida Atlantic stands atop Conference USA with an 18-2 record in league play, holding a 28-3 overall mark. While a C-USA quarterfinals upset would not be ideal, the Owls are nearly an NCAA lock because of favorable metrics and a total absence of bad losses.
For the sake of simplicity, let's suggest FAU avoids a meltdown in the quarterfinals and officially becomes a lock. At that point, any non-Florida Atlantic champion in C-USA would shrink the bubble by one.
The primary threats are North Texas and UAB, which finished second and third in conference. UAB, led by Jelly Walker, is the reigning tournament champion and also defeated FAU earlier this year.
Every bubble team in the country is desperately hoping Florida Atlantic will continue its reign in Conference USA.
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Michigan Wolverines
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Michigan's season has been a painful series of close losses. In the past seven games, the Wolverines fell in four contests by a combined 12 points—and twice in overtime.
But the Big Ten tournament is loaded with opportunity for U-M.
In the opening clash, the Wolverines could put bubble-dwelling Rutgers at immense risk of missing March Madness. Michigan would meet top-seeded Purdue, and a win should vault Juwan Howard's squad into the thick of the discussion. Stack a third victory—presumably over NCAA-bound Michigan State or Iowa—and the bubble looks different.
Yes, that's an ambitious scenario. Given that Michigan has played tight games against all of those programs, though, it's not something we should be quick to rule out, either.
New Mexico Lobos
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You could formulate a suitable argument for San Jose State because of its potential to hurt Nevada's at-large case. Our prime Mountain West choice, however, is New Mexico.
First, there's no doubt New Mexico needs the automatic bid; a 3-10 slide to finish the season made that abundantly clear.
And second, the Lobos can shatter some dreams.
Utah State is firmly on the bubble, holding a 24-7 record with eyesore losses to Quadrant 4 teams Weber State and SMU. Although it's possible the Aggies sneak into the NCAA field anyway, a loss to New Mexico would turn Selection Sunday into a nervous afternoon at USU.
The past six weeks have been unkind to New Mexico, but a sizzling week can alter the narrative of the season in a hurry.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
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Oklahoma State closed the regular season in a serious slump, dropping five of its last six contests. Heading into the conference tournament, the Cowboys are seemingly on the wrong side of the bubble.
How quickly could the Pokes change that perception?
While the opening-round matchup with Oklahoma won't provide much help, it's a favorable matchup for OSU. But the next contest—a clash with seventh-ranked Texas—can significantly bolster the Pokes' resume.
Sure, that victory still may not push Oklahoma State into the projected field. Take down Texas, though, and that decision becomes much tougher for the selection committee.
Add another win over Kansas State or TCU after that, and the Pokes are undoubtedly a candidate for an at-large bid.
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