Dolphins are NFL QB Carousel's Ultimate Wild Card Amid Tua Tagovailoa Contract Rumors

The Miami Dolphins are at a crossroads with Tua Tagovailoa, and the rest of the league could soon feel the effect.

The NFL offseason hasn't even really started. March 15 marks the beginning of free agency when the player movement will be fast and furious. For now, we wait, but the storm clouds of change are starting to get darker.

The teams that are likely to be involved have been obvious going back to the 2022 season. The potential Aaron Rodgers-Green Bay Packers divorce has been on the table since last offseason. Teams like the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints have had an obvious need at quarterback far earlier than they may have realized.

Then there are the teams that are likely to draft a quarterback. The Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles are the only teams who can be completely ruled out for taking a quarterback with their top-10 pick in the draft.

But the Miami Dolphins are the dark-horse team that could enter the game and set off a domino effect throughout the league.

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Tagovailoa Contract Situation is Complicated

Josina Anderson of CBS Sports reported the Dolphins, "will explore all options at quarterback" as the team has yet to opt-in to the fifth-year option of his rookie contract or come to terms on a long-term deal.

From a sheer numbers standpoint, extending Tagovailoa should be an easy choice. The lefty was 8-5 as the Dolphins starter this season and had his best year in a number of important statistical categories.

From passer rating to QBR to simple yards and touchdowns Tagovailoa made major improvements.

He also added to his extensive injury history. Coming into the draft there was concern about a severe hip injury that he suffered at Alabama along with a few ankle injuries. At 6'1", 217 pounds, Tagovailoa is not on the big side of NFL quarterbacks.

But the most concerning injuries came this year when he suffered at least two concussions. As a result, he missed five games, including the Dolphins' playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The ugly truth of the game is that head injuries can have compounding effects, and durability plays a huge role in sustained success in this league. It would make sense for Dolphins decision-makers to have trepidation about extending Tagovailoa.

That brings us to the fifth-year option. The Dolphins have until May 1 to make a decision on tacking on the additional year to his contract. Given his level of play, it would be considered a bargain at $23.2 million for the 2024 season.

Yet, general manager Chris Grier hasn't pulled the trigger on the option, and he's acknowledged that his injury history is being considered.

"I can't lie and say no. But it's not something that is going to make us afraid to do something long-term with him," Grier said at the NFL Scouting Combine in regard to Tagovailoa's durability concerns. "The one thing he's had, he's been banged up, but he always comes back and bounces back and plays hard and performs, so excited for his future."

Publicly, Grier has to downplay the chances of moving on from the quarterback. He's under contract, and they don't want to lose leverage in any potential trades.

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Means to Acquire a Quarterback

If the Dolphins are set on going a different direction at the most important position, it's going to require draft capital, money or both.

The Dolphins aren't in the best situation on either front, but they have enough to be dangerous. They don't have a first-round pick. Ironically, it was forfeited for tampering when they tried to recruit Tom Brady.

But they have Tua, and that may be worth a first-round pick when packaged with future firsts. The Dolphins haven't traded away any other future first-round picks. They still have a second-round pick along with two third-rounders (Nos. 78 and 85) in the 2023 draft that could be seen as valuable by other teams.

AP Photo/Marta Lavandier

Money won't be as big an issue as it looks like on paper right now. The Dolphins are 26th in cap space right now at $15.3 million over the cap, per Spotrac. However, they could clear up to $55 million in space through simple restructures, according to Over The Cap.

Of course, that comes at a cost. Restructures simply convert salary to bonuses that get prorated over the life of the contract, so it just kicks the financial conundrum down the line.

Sacrificing future flexibility to win now hasn't been an issue for the Dolphins to this point. Trades for Bradley Chubb and Tyreek Hill, along with big spending in free agency, have shown this team is willing to get aggressive to win now and pay for it later.

That's bad news for teams that have a specific quarterback target in mind. The Dolphins have the resources to make a move happen.

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Dolphins Ideal Landing Spot for Several Quarterbacks

If the Dolphins were in the middle of a rebuild, it would make sense to just ride it out with Tagovailoa. After all, it's hard to just forsake a young quarterback with the potential to be the face of the franchise.

But this is a team built to contend right now.

Jeff Darlington of ESPN recently outlined why the Dolphins would make a lot of sense for Lamar Jackson if he can't come to terms with the Baltimore Ravens. Darlington went so far as to say the Dolphins would be on their way to the Super Bowl with Jackson joining the team.

It's certainly a hard hypothetical offense to stop.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

If you put yourself in the shoes of a quarterback who is looking to contend for a championship right now, the Dolphins are the best landing spot. Miami has made several moves over the past few seasons to build around Tagovailoa.

They have made a serious investment in the offensive line by signing Terron Armstead and Connor Williams last offseason. They drafted Jaylen Waddle and traded several draft picks for Tyreek Hill.

Then they brought in a great offensive mind in Mike McDaniel to bring it all together.

Those moves all have to be considered as part of why Tagovailoa had the success that he did on the field in his third season. Potential free agents or trade targets understand that too.

Even if Jackson isn't available there are still quarterbacks who could help the Dolphins take the next step. It would be the best setup Derek Carr has had in his career. Aaron Rodgers would be thrilled to have a receiver of Hill's caliber again, and Waddle is an emerging star at the position.

For players like Carr and Rodgers, any of the quarterback-needy teams selecting in the top 10 are picking that high for a reason. They are in the middle of a rebuild, have an iffy coaching situation or a bit of both. It's not an ideal situation for veterans who want to win now.

Teams like the Jets and Saints have a better pitch to quarterbacks. The Jets have some promising skill players in Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall and Elijah Moore with a solid offensive line and a good defense. That still doesn't compete with what Hill and Waddle bring to the table.

Throw in the addition of Vic Fangio to raise the level of a defense that has plenty of talent and this Dolphins team really is a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl threat.

If the Dolphins decide to get involved in the quarterback carousel, they will be in the driver's seat.